Are Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise?

Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. Working Paper 07-2

Lesions mimicking lacrimal gland pleomorphic adenoma

Aim: To report a series of patients with lacrimal gland lesions simulating the clinicoradiological features of lacrimal gland pleomorphic adenoma (LGPA). Methods: Multicentre retrospective, interventional case series. Clinical records of all patients with lesions mimicking LGPA seen in five orbital units were reviewed. Results: The study included 14 patients (seven men and seven women) with a mean age of 50.9 years. The diagnosis of LGPA was made in all cases by experienced orbital surgeons, based on clinicoradiological features, and lacrimal gland excision was performed. Postoperative histology revealed lymphoma (four patients), chronic dacryoadenitis (three patients), adenoid cystic carcinoma (two patients), Sjogren's syndrome (two patients), cavernous haemangioma (one patient), benign lymphoid hyperplasia (one patient) and granulomatous dacryoadenitis (one patient). Comparison with the total number of histologically confirmed LGPA cases seen during the study period revealed that 22.6% of cases of suspected LGPA were misdiagnosed based on clinicoradiological criteria. Conclusions: Many different lesions may mimic the clinicoradiological features of LGPA. The accepted clinicoradiological criteria used for the diagnosis of LGPA have a high false-positive rate, even in experienced hands. Based on this study, the authors believe that fine-needle aspiration biopsy or intraoperative biopsy and frozen section diagnosis may help reduce unnecessary lacrimal gland excision.Venkatesh C Prabhakaran, Paul S Cannon, Alan McNab, Garry Davis, Brett O’Donnell, Peter J Dolman, Raf Ghabrial, Dinesh Selv

Forward and Inverse Processing in Electromagnetic NDE Using Squid

Electromagnetic NDE has been successfully applied to the detection of surface cracks and is routinely used to locate flaws in airframes, pipelines and in steel offshore oil platforms. However, there are still many problems to be solved, particularly in the aviation industry, which require the detection of deeper flaws such as corrosion in multi-layered structures and cracks around rivet holes which are obscured by the head of the rivet. Most systems use coils as detectors (though Hall probes are occasionally used), which have low sensitivity at low frequencies due to the fact that the induced voltage is proportional to the rate of change of magnetic flux through the coil. Unfortunately it is necessary to use low frequencies to detect deep subsurface flaws on account of the skin-depth effect, otherwise the electromagnetic field cannot propagate down to the depth of the flaw. SQUID (Superconducting Quantum Interference Device) sensors are ideally suited to overcome the deficiencies of coils, because they are primarily detectors of magnetic flux which, together with their high sensitivity, makes the detection of deep flaws more likely. SQUIDs have been successfully used for measuring very low magnetic fields, particularly in the field of biomagnetism, and it is hoped to exploit this sensitivity to detect flaws at large stand-off distances for example in pipelines which are surrounded by thick layers of cladding

Black Womens and Birth Workers Experiences of Disrespect and Abuse in Maternity Care: Findings From a Qualitative Exploratory Research Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Public health research has generated increasingly sophisticated theories and methods for linking the biological to the social, and for understanding how historical and current forms of discrimination, trauma and injustice find expression in health outcomes. Stark racial disparities in maternal mortality and severe maternal morbidity are particularly appropriate for this exploration because women's sexuality and reproduction has always been a crucial battleground for social control of disadvantaged groups, for assertions of biomedical dominance and professional hierarchies, and for humiliation—and selective celebration—of individuals to further promote specific gender and racial ideologies.Yet, simultaneously, women's sexuality and reproduction has also provided the setting for women to assert their personhood, express their community and cultural solidarity, and define and demand their political and social citizenship. Over the last four decades, women of color have built social movements to link this profound understanding of the personal and political meaning of reproduction to the wider struggle for social justice across a broad range of social institutions where racism finds different forms of expression–schools, police and courts, voting rights and political representation, media and social discourse. The recent surge of attention to what advocates, scholars, politicians and journalists now routinely call the "Black maternal health crisis" helps to create an important opportunity for research to link to action, indeed for research to be action.This report is just one step towards recognition of the role of racism in maternal health. It describes findings from an exploratory, qualitative research study of Black women's experiences during pregnancy and childbirth in Atlanta, which was conducted in 2018 in partnership between Black Mamas Matter Alliance (BMMA), the Averting Maternal Death and Disability (AMDD) program of Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, Center for Black Women's Wellness (CBWW), and other local community-based organizations. This was part of a larger study conducted in New York City in 2017 (Freedman et. al., 2020). Specifically, the study in Atlanta sought to understand Black women's perceptions of the disrespect and abuse they experienced during pregnancy and childbirth. By focusing on disrespect and abuse during childbirth, the study links to a wider global movement that is mobilizing around the concept of respectful maternity care (Armbruster et. al., 2011). It also constitutes initial steps in pursuit of a wider agenda led by BMMA and women of color organizations that seek to transform knowledge and how it is generated, and by doing so, build power and shift culture, bending the arc of history toward social justice (Aina et. al., 2019)

Factors associated with whole carcass condemnation rates in provincially-inspected abattoirs in Ontario 2001-2007: implications for food animal syndromic surveillance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ontario provincial abattoirs have the potential to be important sources of syndromic surveillance data for emerging diseases of concern to animal health, public health and food safety. The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe provincially inspected abattoirs processing cattle in Ontario in terms of the number of abattoirs, the number of weeks abattoirs process cattle, geographical distribution, types of whole carcass condemnations reported, and the distance animals are shipped for slaughter; and (2) identify various seasonal, secular, disease and non-disease factors that might bias the results of quantitative methods, such as cluster detection methods, used for food animal syndromic surveillance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data were collected from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Ontario Cattlemen's Association regarding whole carcass condemnation rates for cattle animal classes, abattoir compliance ratings, and the monthly sales-yard price for various cattle classes from 2001-2007. To analyze the association between condemnation rates and potential explanatory variables including abattoir characteristics, season, year and commodity price, as well as animal class, negative binomial regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for autocorrelation among observations from the same abattoir. Results of the fitted model found animal class, year, season, price, and audit rating are associated with condemnation rates in Ontario abattoirs. In addition, a subset of data was used to estimate the average distance cattle are shipped to Ontario provincial abattoirs. The median distance from the farm to the abattoir was approximately 82 km, and 75% of cattle were shipped less than 100 km.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results suggest that secular and seasonal trends, as well as some non-disease factors will need to be corrected for when applying quantitative methods for syndromic surveillance involving these data. This study also demonstrated that animals shipped to Ontario provincial abattoirs come from relatively local farms, which is important when considering the use of spatial surveillance methods for these data.</p

Managing Dynamic User Communities in a Grid of Autonomous Resources

One of the fundamental concepts in Grid computing is the creation of Virtual Organizations (VO's): a set of resource consumers and providers that join forces to solve a common problem. Typical examples of Virtual Organizations include collaborations formed around the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiments. To date, Grid computing has been applied on a relatively small scale, linking dozens of users to a dozen resources, and management of these VO's was a largely manual operation. With the advance of large collaboration, linking more than 10000 users with a 1000 sites in 150 counties, a comprehensive, automated management system is required. It should be simple enough not to deter users, while at the same time ensuring local site autonomy. The VO Management Service (VOMS), developed by the EU DataGrid and DataTAG projects[1, 2], is a secured system for managing authorization for users and resources in virtual organizations. It extends the existing Grid Security Infrastructure[3] architecture with embedded VO affiliation assertions that can be independently verified by all VO members and resource providers. Within the EU DataGrid project, Grid services for job submission, file- and database access are being equipped with fine- grained authorization systems that take VO membership into account. These also give resource owners the ability to ensure site security and enforce local access policies. This paper will describe the EU DataGrid security architecture, the VO membership service and the local site enforcement mechanisms Local Centre Authorization Service (LCAS), Local Credential Mapping Service(LCMAPS) and the Java Trust and Authorization Manager.Comment: Talk from the 2003 Computing in High Energy and Nuclear Physics (CHEP03), La Jolla, Ca, USA, March 2003, 7 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures. PSN TUBT00

Using simplified models to communicate the importance of prevention, detection and preparedness before a disease outbreak

Summary Frontline farm workers and veterinary-policy-makers are arguably in the best positions to influence prevention, detection, and preparedness-for-control of farm animal diseases. It is important that such individuals make biologically sound decisions concerning the daily management and regulation of the health of animals. Such decisions should be based on a good understanding of key principles of disease spread and control. This paper summarises these principles, as described in previous publications, into simple models. These models may be used to communicate concepts to readers who may not have time to study more complex models. These models illustrate the relationship between the development of new disease cases (from existing cases, i.e. the reproductive ratio R) and (i) the duration of the period during which existing cases are available as infectious, (ii) contact rates, (iii) transmission rates and (iv) susceptibility. Understanding these concepts through models has great utility, facilitating better decisions for disease prevention, detection and preparedness-for-control, before an outbreak becomes unmanageable. These basic concepts apply to all animal species, including humans

Electromagnetic Launch to Space

Many advances in electromagnetic (EM) propulsion technology have occurred in recent years. Linear motor technology for low-velocity and high-mass applications is being developed for naval catapults and missile launchers. Such technology could serve as the basis for the launch of a first-stage booster launch -for example, as suggested some years ago by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the Maglifter concept. For higher velocities, experimental laboratory railguns have demonstrated launch velocities of 2-3 km/s and muzzle energies greater than 10 MJ. The extension of this technology to the muzzle velocities (≥ 7500 m/s) and energies (hundreds of megajoules) needed for the direct launch of payloads into orbit is very challenging but may not be impossible. For launch to orbit, long launchers (&gt; 1000 m) would need to operate at accelerations &gt; 1000 G to reach the required velocities, so it would only be possible to launch rugged payloads, such as fuel, water, and material. This paper provides an overview of these concepts and includes a summary of the recent advances made in this area. PACS numbers: 96.12. Hg, 98.35.Eg, 94.30.Kq, 94.05.Rx, 94.20.Fg, 94.20.wc, 94.20.w

Convergence of dynamic vegetation net productivity responses to precipitation variability from 10 years of MODIS EVI

According to Global Climate Models (GCMs) the occurrence of extreme events of precipitation will be more frequent in the future. Therefore, important challenges arise regarding climate variability, which are mainly related to the understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in precipitation patterns. Previous studies have found that Above-ground Net Primary Productivity (ANPP) was positively related to increases in annual precipitation and this relation may converge across biomes during dry years. One challenge in studying this ecosystem response at the continental scale is the lack of ANPP field measurements over extended areas. In this study, the MODIS EVI was utilized as a surrogate for ANPP and combined with precipitation datasets from twelve different experimental sites across the United States over a 10-year period. Results from this analysis confirmed that integrated-EVI for different biomes converged toward common precipitation use efficiency during water-limited periods and may be a viable surrogate for ANPP measurements for further ecological research