Viral dynamics of acute HIV-1 infection.

Viral dynamics were intensively investigated in eight patients with acute HIV infection to define the earliest rates of change in plasma HIV RNA before and after the start of antiretroviral therapy. We report the first estimates of the basic reproductive number (R(0)), the number of cells infected by the progeny of an infected cell during its lifetime when target cells are not depleted. The mean initial viral doubling time was 10 h, and the peak of viremia occurred 21 d after reported HIV exposure. The spontaneous rate of decline (alpha) was highly variable among individuals. The phase 1 viral decay rate (delta(I) = 0.3/day) in subjects initiating potent antiretroviral therapy during acute HIV infection was similar to estimates from treated subjects with chronic HIV infection. The doubling time in two subjects who discontinued antiretroviral therapy was almost five times slower than during acute infection. The mean basic reproductive number (R(0)) of 19.3 during the logarithmic growth phase of primary HIV infection suggested that a vaccine or postexposure prophylaxis of at least 95% efficacy would be needed to extinguish productive viral infection in the absence of drug resistance or viral latency. These measurements provide a basis for comparison of vaccine and other strategies and support the validity of the simian immunodeficiency virus macaque model of acute HIV infection

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level

SpK: A fast atomic and microphysics code for the high-energy-density regime

SpK is part of the numerical codebase at Imperial College London used to model high energy density physics (HEDP) experiments. SpK is an efficient atomic and microphysics code used to perform detailed configuration accounting calculations of electronic and ionic stage populations, opacities and emissivities for use in post-processing and radiation hydrodynamics simulations. This is done using screened hydrogenic atomic data supplemented by the NIST energy level database. An extended Saha model solves for chemical equilibrium with extensions for non-ideal physics, such as ionisation potential depression, and non thermal equilibrium corrections. A tree-heap (treap) data structure is used to store spectral data, such as opacity, which is dynamic thus allowing easy insertion of points around spectral lines without a-priori knowledge of the ion stage populations. Results from SpK are compared to other codes and descriptions of radiation transport solutions which use SpK data are given. The treap data structure and SpK’s computational efficiency allows inline post-processing of 3D hydrodynamics simulations with a dynamically evolving spectrum stored in a treap

Physical and mental health comorbidity is common in people with multiple sclerosis: nationally representative cross-sectional population database analysis

<b>Background</b> Comorbidity in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is associated with worse health and higher mortality. This study aims to describe clinician recorded comorbidities in people with MS. <p></p> <b>Methods</b> 39 comorbidities in 3826 people with MS aged ≥25 years were compared against 1,268,859 controls. Results were analysed by age, gender, and socioeconomic status, with unadjusted and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) calculated using logistic regression. <p></p> <b>Results</b> People with MS were more likely to have one (OR 2.44; 95% CI 2.26-2.64), two (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.38-1.62), three (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.69-2.04), four or more (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.47-1.77) non-MS chronic conditions than controls, and greater mental health comorbidity (OR 2.94; 95% CI 2.75-3.14), which increased as the number of physical comorbidities rose. Cardiovascular conditions, including atrial fibrillation (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.67), chronic kidney disease (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.40-0.65), heart failure (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.45-0.85), coronary heart disease (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.52-0.71), and hypertension (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.72) were significantly less common in people with MS. <p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> People with MS have excess multiple chronic conditions, with associated increased mental health comorbidity. The low recorded cardiovascular comorbidity warrants further investigation

A Multi-Variant, Viral Dynamic Model of Genotype 1 HCV to Assess the in vivo Evolution of Protease-Inhibitor Resistant Variants

Variants resistant to compounds specifically targeting HCV are observed in clinical trials. A multi-variant viral dynamic model was developed to quantify the evolution and in vivo fitness of variants in subjects dosed with monotherapy of an HCV protease inhibitor, telaprevir. Variant fitness was estimated using a model in which variants were selected by competition for shared limited replication space. Fitness was represented in the absence of telaprevir by different variant production rate constants and in the presence of telaprevir by additional antiviral blockage by telaprevir. Model parameters, including rate constants for viral production, clearance, and effective telaprevir concentration, were estimated from 1) plasma HCV RNA levels of subjects before, during, and after dosing, 2) post-dosing prevalence of plasma variants from subjects, and 3) sensitivity of variants to telaprevir in the HCV replicon. The model provided a good fit to plasma HCV RNA levels observed both during and after telaprevir dosing, as well as to variant prevalence observed after telaprevir dosing. After an initial sharp decline in HCV RNA levels during dosing with telaprevir, HCV RNA levels increased in some subjects. The model predicted this increase to be caused by pre-existing variants with sufficient fitness to expand once available replication space increased due to rapid clearance of wild-type (WT) virus. The average replicative fitness estimates in the absence of telaprevir ranged from 1% to 68% of WT fitness. Compared to the relative fitness method, the in vivo estimates from the viral dynamic model corresponded more closely to in vitro replicon data, as well as to qualitative behaviors observed in both on-dosing and long-term post-dosing clinical data. The modeling fitness estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses in which the restoration dynamics of replication space and assumptions of HCV mutation rates were varied

Lambs with Scrapie Susceptible Genotypes Have Higher Postnatal Survival

BACKGROUND: Prion protein (PrP) alleles associated with scrapie susceptibility persist in many sheep populations even with high frequencies despite centuries of selection against them. This suggests that scrapie susceptibility alleles have a pleiotropic effect or are associated with fitness or other traits that have been subject to selection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We genotyped all lambs in two scrapie-free Scottish Blackface sheep flocks for polymorphisms at codons 136, 154 and 171 of the PrP gene. We tested potential associations of the PrP genotype with lamb viability at birth and postnatal survival using a complementary log-log link function and a Weibull proportional hazard model, respectively. Here we show there is an association between PrP genotype, as defined by polymorphisms at codons 154 ad 171, and postnatal lamb survival in the absence of scrapie. Sheep carrying the wild-type ARQ allele have higher postnatal survival rates than sheep carrying the more scrapie-resistant alleles (ARR or AHQ). CONCLUSION: The PrP genotypes associated with higher susceptibility to scrapie are associated with improved postnatal survival in the absence of the disease. This association helps to explain the existence, and in many instances the high frequency, of the ARQ allele in sheep populations

There Is No Safe Dose of Prions

Understanding the circumstances under which exposure to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) leads to infection is important for managing risks to public health. Based upon ideas in toxicology and radiology, it is plausible that exposure to harmful agents, including TSEs, is completely safe if the dose is low enough. However, the existence of a threshold, below which infection probability is zero has never been demonstrated experimentally. Here we explore this question by combining data and mathematical models that describe scrapie infections in mice following experimental challenge over a broad range of doses. We analyse data from 4338 mice inoculated at doses ranging over ten orders of magnitude. These data are compared to results from a within-host model in which prions accumulate according to a stochastic birth-death process. Crucially, this model assumes no threshold on the dose required for infection. Our data reveal that infection is possible at the very low dose of a 1000 fold dilution of the dose that infects half the challenged animals (ID50). Furthermore, the dose response curve closely matches that predicted by the model. These findings imply that there is no safe dose of prions and that assessments of the risk from low dose exposure are right to assume a linear relationship between dose and probability of infection. We also refine two common perceptions about TSE incubation periods: that their mean values decrease linearly with logarithmic decreases in dose and that they are highly reproducible between hosts. The model and data both show that the linear decrease in incubation period holds only for doses above the ID50. Furthermore, variability in incubation periods is greater than predicted by the model, not smaller. This result poses new questions about the sources of variability in prion incubation periods. It also provides insight into the limitations of the incubation period assay

Is Cortisol Excretion Independent of Menstrual Cycle Day? A Longitudinal Evaluation of First Morning Urinary Specimens

Background Cortisol is frequently used as a marker of physiologic stress levels. Using cortisol for that purpose, however, requires a thorough understanding of its normal longitudinal variability. The current understanding of longitudinal variability of basal cortisol secretion in women is very limited. It is often assumed, for example, that basal cortisol profiles do not vary across the menstrual cycle. This is a critical assumption: if cortisol were to follow a time dependent pattern during the menstrual cycle, then ignoring this cyclic variation could lead to erroneous imputation of physiologic stress. Yet, the assumption that basal cortisol levels are stable across the menstrual cycle rests on partial and contradictory evidence. Here we conduct a thorough test of that assumption using data collected for up to a year from 25 women living in rural Guatemala. Methodology We apply a linear mixed model to describe longitudinal first morning urinary cortisol profiles, accounting for differences in both mean and standard deviation of cortisol among women. To that aim we evaluate the fit of two alternative models. The first model assumes that cortisol does not vary with menstrual cycle day. The second assumes that cortisol mean varies across the menstrual cycle. Menstrual cycles are aligned on ovulation day (day 0). Follicular days are assigned negative numbers and luteal days positive numbers. When we compared Models 1 and 2 restricting our analysis to days between −14 (follicular) and day 14 (luteal) then day of the menstrual cycle did not emerge as a predictor of urinary cortisol levels (p-value >0.05). Yet, when we extended our analyses beyond that central 28-day-period then day of the menstrual cycle become a statistically significant predictor of cortisol levels. Significance The observed trend suggests that studies including cycling women should account for day dependent variation in cortisol in cycles with long follicular and luteal phases

Unexpected Role of α-Fetoprotein in Spermatogenesis

BACKGROUND: Heat shock severely affects sperm production (spermatogenesis) and results in a rapid loss of haploid germ cells, or in other words, sperm formation (spermiogenesis) is inhibited. However, the mechanisms behind the effects of heat shock on spermatogenesis are obscure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To identify the inhibitory factor of spermiogenesis, experimental cryptorchid (EC) mice were used in this study. Here we show that α-fetoprotein (AFP) is specifically expressed in the testes of EC mice by proteome analysis. AFP was also specifically localized spermatocytes by immunohistochemical analysis and was secreted into the circulation system of EC mice by immunoblot analysis. Since spermatogenesis of an advanced mammal cannot be reproduced with in vitro, we performed the microinjection of AFP into the seminiferous tubules of normal mice to determine whether AFP inhibits spermiogenesis in vivo. AFP was directly responsible for the block in spermiogenesis of normal mice. To investigate whether AFP inhibits cell differentiation in other models, using EC mice we performed a partial hepatectomy (PH) that triggers a rapid regenerative response in the remnant liver tissue. We also found that liver regeneration is inhibited in EC mice with PH. The result suggests that AFP released into the blood of EC mice regulates liver regeneration by inhibiting the cell division of hepatocytes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: AFP is a well-known cancer-specific marker, but AFP has no known function in healthy human beings. Our findings indicate that AFP expressed under EC conditions plays a role as a regulatory factor in spermatogenesis and in hepatic generation