The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

macroeconomics, International Dollar Standard, Dollar Standard, Sustainability, U.S. Current Account Deficit

Japan's deflationary hangover: Wage stagnation and the syndrome of the ever-weaker yen

Japan still suffers a deflationary hangover from the great episodic yen appreciations of the 1980s into the mid-1990s. Money wages are still declining, and short-term interest rates remain trapped near zero. After Japan's 'lost decade' from 1992 to 2002, however, output has begun to grow modestly-but through export expansion and associated investment rather than domestic consumption. This export-led growth has been helped by a passive real depreciation of the yen: prices and wages in Europe and the United States have grown, and are growing, faster than in Japan. As the yen becomes weaker in real terms, American and European industrialists and politicians are again complaining that the yen is too weak (Japan bashing II?)-although the pressure on Japan to appreciate is not yet as great as it now is on the People's Republic of China (PRC). But Japan is trapped. If it does appreciate the yen, its fragile economy will be driven back into outright deflation. The only solution is to stabilize the nominal dollar value of the yen over the long term, but this step won't necessarily be immediately effective in placating foreign mercantilists. Under foreign pressure to appreciate the renminbi, the PRC, with its booming economy, is now in a similar position to Japan's of more than 20 years ago. Policy makers in the PRC should resist pressure to go down the same deflationary road as Japan

Triton's surface age and impactor population revisited in light of Kuiper Belt fluxes: Evidence for small Kuiper Belt objects and recent geological activity

Neptune's largest satellite, Triton, is one of the most fascinating and enigmatic bodies in the solar system. Among its numerous interesting traits, Triton appears to have far fewer craters than would be expected if its surface was primordial. Here we combine the best available crater count data for Triton with improved estimates of impact rates by including the Kuiper Belt as a source of impactors. We find that the population of impactors creating the smallest observed craters on Triton must be sub-km in scale, and that this small-impactor population can be best fit by a differential power-law size index near -3. Such results provide interesting, indirect probes of the unseen small body population of the Kuiper Belt. Based on the modern, Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud impactor flux estimates, we also recalculate estimated ages for several regions of Triton's surface imaged by Voyager 2, and find that Triton was probably active on a time scale no greater than 0.1-0.3 Gyr ago (indicating Triton was still active after some 90% to 98% of the age of the solar system), and perhaps even more recently. The time-averaged volumetric resurfacing rate on Triton implied by these results, 0.01 km$^3$ yr$^{-1}$ or more, is likely second only to Io and Europa in the outer solar system, and is within an order of magnitude of estimates for Venus and for the Earth's intraplate zones. This finding indicates that Triton likely remains a highly geologically active world at present, some 4.5 Gyr after its formation. We briefly speculate on how such a situation might obtain.Comment: 14 pages (TeX), plus 2 postscript figures Stern & McKinnon, 2000, AJ, in pres

Enhanced emotional response to both negative and positive images in post-traumatic stress disorder: Evidence from pupillometry

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is characterised by alterations in the function of the autonomic nervous system. However, it is unclear if this dysfunction is threat-related or related to arousing stimuli in general. Pupillometry offers a simple non-invasive measure of ANS activity that can separate parasympathetic and sympathetic arousal. Participants viewed images with emotional or neutral content: 20 met diagnostic criteria for PTSD, 28 were trauma-exposed (but with no PTSD), and 17 were controls. Initial pupil constriction (a marker of parasympathetic function) was reduced for the PTSD group, while dilation due to the emotional content of the image (a marker of sympathetic activity) was greater in the PTSD group. Individuals with PTSD demonstrated enhanced physiological arousal to both threat-related and positive images. The results suggest reduced parasympathetic arousal and increased sympathetic arousal in the autonomic nervous system, which has been linked to a range of adverse health outcomes in PTSD

What are the key influences and challenges around weight management faced by patients in UK adult secure mental health settings? A focused ethnographic approach

Objectives Excess weight is highly prevalent in secure (forensic) mental health services and impacts negatively on patients’ physical and mental health. This study sought to identify the key influences and challenges around weight management in United Kingdom (UK) adult secure mental health settings. Design Qualitative focussed ethnography. Analysis of written fieldnotes was undertaken through a combined inductive and deductive approach, informed by thematic analysis. Setting Low secure male mental health ward and associated patient activities and events, in a National Health Service (NHS) Trust delivering mental health, intellectual disability and neurorehabilitation services in the UK. Participants Twelve males (primarily White British) on the low secure ward; other male participants from low and medium secure services, who took part in group events and activities; and multidisciplinary low and medium secure services staff. Approximately 23 hours of observation were undertaken over a six-month period from April 2022. Results Secure mental healthcare delivered an overall ‘obesogenic’ environment, predisposing patients to excessive weight gain and sedentary behaviour, which was often perceived as inevitable. Key themes highlighted the heightened salience of food in secure settings; inadequacy of catered hospital food and shortcomings of alternative food options; limited physical activity opportunities; and understaffing. Ward culture was not conducive to healthy behaviours. Perceptions and behaviour towards the ethnographer were primarily positive and accepting. Conclusions Weight management in secure services is a complex challenge. In future, whole settingbased interventions to promote healthy weight are likely to be required. These should integrate physical and mental health, incorporate underpinning determinants such as adequate staffing and a culture promoting weight management, and involve both patients and staff

Understanding weight management in adult secure mental health services: findings from a mixed-methods study in Northern England

Obesity and associated morbidity and mortality are major challenges for people with severe mental illness (SMI, including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder), particularly in secure (forensic) mental healthcare (patients who have committed a crime or have threatening behaviour). This research aimed to explore experiences of obesity in secure mental health settings, through a survey, focus groups and interviews. The survey was delivered to secure mental healthcare staff in a National Health Service (NHS) mental health trust in Northern England, and received 79 responses. Nine focus groups were conducted with current and former patients, carers and multidisciplinary staff in the same trust. Eleven semi-structured interviews were undertaken with multidisciplinary staff in a second NHS mental health trust in Northern England. Through thematic analysis two overarching issues were identified, concerning the contrasting perspectives expressed by different stakeholder groups, and the importance of a whole system approach. Overall, secure care was highlighted as an ‘obesogenic’ environment, conducive to excessive weight gain. Seven key influences included: medication, sedentary behaviour, patient motivation and intrinsic factors, catered food and alternatives, role of staff, and service delivery. In future, complex interventions engaging wide-ranging stakeholders are likely to be needed, with linked longitudinal studies to evaluate feasibility and impact