Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective

Key features of NZ business cycles were established for the period 1966q4 to 1990q1 by Kim, Buckle and Hall (1994) (KBH), but the conduct of fiscal, monetary and labour market policy and the behaviour of New Zealand's economy have changed considerably since then. Our results for the period 1987q2 to 2010q4 show a reduction in volatility and a rise in persistence for both the real economy and for price and monetary variables. Government sector, open economy, monetary and labour market results differ from those advanced in KBH. Overall, we establish a more credible set of benchmark regularities, to help underpin the construction and use of contemporary NZ macroeconomic models

Seeing with sound? Exploring different characteristics of a visual-to-auditory sensory substitution device

Sensory substitution devices convert live visual images into auditory signals, for example with a web camera (to record the images), a computer (to perform the conversion) and headphones (to listen to the sounds). In a series of three experiments, the performance of one such device (‘The vOICe’) was assessed under various conditions on blindfolded sighted participants. The main task that we used involved identifying and locating objects placed on a table by holding a webcam (like a flashlight) or wearing it on the head (like a miner’s light). Identifying objects on a table was easier with a hand-held device, but locating the objects was easier with a head-mounted device. Brightness converted into loudness was less effective than the reverse contrast (dark being loud), suggesting that performance under these conditions (natural indoor lighting, novice users) is related more to the properties of the auditory signal (ie the amount of noise in it) than the cross-modal association between loudness and brightness. Individual differences in musical memory (detecting pitch changes in two sequences of notes) was related to the time taken to identify or recognise objects, but individual differences in self-reported vividness of visual imagery did not reliably predict performance across the experiments. In general, the results suggest that the auditory characteristics of the device may be more important for initial learning than visual associations

A nitrogen-based model of plankton dynamics in the oceanic mixed layer

As a first step toward the development of coupled, basin scale models of ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling, we present a model of the annual cycles of plankton dynamics and nitrogen cycling in the oceanic mixed layer. The model is easily modified and runs in FORTRAN on a personal computer. In our initial development and exploration of the model\u27s behavior we have concentrated on modeling the annual cycle at Station S near Bermuda using seven compartments (Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Bacteria, Nitrate, Ammonium, Dissolved organic nitrogen and Detritus). This choice of compartments and the attendant flows (fluxes or intercompartmental exchanges) permits a functional distinction between new and regenerated production. We have examined over 200 different runs and carried out sensitivity analyses. Results of model runs with detrital sinking rates of 1 and 10 meters per day are presented. In these runs, the phytoplankton biomass-specific mortality rate was varied to adjust the annual net primary production (NPP) for the mixed layer to a value equivalent to 45 gC m−2, which was calculated from the literature. Modelled cycles of zooplankton and bacterial stocks, and magnitudes of their annual production which cannot be validated due to sparse observations, are driven by the amplitude of the spring bloom and by changes in foodweb structure. Most, but not all model runs exhibit a spring bloom triggered by the winter depression of zooplankton stocks and the vernal increase in solar irradiance. The bloom is driven by nitrate entrained into the mixed layer during the wintertime deepening of the mixed layer. Following the shoaling of the pycnocline to ca 20 m, nitrate supply is limited to diffusional inputs, nitrate stocks are depleted, and regenerated production exceeds new production. The resulting cycles of new and regenerated production produce an annual cycle of the f-ratio with winter maxima approaching 0.8–0.9 and summer minima reaching ca 0.1–0.2, with annual values averaging 0.7. The model reproduces the Eppley Curve, a hyperbolic relationship of increasing f with increasing primary production. This curve is shown to be the trajectory of the production system in the f-NPP phase plane. These model runs reproduce the annual cycles of areal NPP, and average annual NPP, new production, and particulate N flux values reported in the literature. The model demonstrates that currently accepted values for these annual fluxes can be reconciled only if the f-ratio has a high annual average. At present, the annual average f-ratio is poorly quantified due to severe undersampling in fall and winter. Our model\u27s ecological structure has been successfully incorporated into the Princeton general circulation model for the North Atlantic Ocean

Is Strategy Different for Very Small and New Firms?

In this paper, we argue that much of the small business strategic management literature has drawn too heavily from work done on large, established firms. We build upon the notions of the liabilities of smallness and newness to discuss how microenterprises and very new firms are different in regards to their strategic analysis, strategic content, strategic resources, and strategic processes. We note that there are a number of important and non-obvious questions that need to be asked that have implications for the most common firms in the world, those that are very small

Clinical and echocardiographic characteristics and cardiovascular outcomes according to diabetes status in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction. A report from the Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction Trial (I-Preserve)

Background—In patients with HF and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), little is known about the characteristics of and outcomes in those with and without diabetes. Methods—We examined clinical and echocardiographic characteristics and outcomes in the Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction trial (I-Preserve), according to history of diabetes. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for cardiovascular outcomes adjusted for known predictors, including age, sex, natriuretic peptides, and comorbidity. Echocardiographic data were available in 745 patients and were additionally adjusted for in supplementary analyses. Results—Overall, 1134 of 4128 patients (27%) had diabetes. Compared to those without diabetes, they were more likely to have a history of myocardial infarction (28% vs. 22%), higher BMI (31kg/m2 vs. 29kg/m2), worse Minnesota living with HF score (48 vs. 40), higher median NT-proBNP concentration (403 vs 320 pg/ml; all p<0.01), more signs of congestion but no significant difference in LVEF. Patients with diabetes had a greater left ventricular (LV) mass and left atrial area than patients without diabetes. Doppler E wave velocity (86 vs 76 cm/sec, p<0.0001) and the ratio of E/e' (11.7 vs 10.4, p=0.010) were higher in patients with diabetes. Over a median follow-up of 4.1 years, cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization occurred in 34% of patients with diabetes vs. 22% of those without diabetes; adjusted HR 1.75 (95% CI 1.49-2.05) and 28% vs. 19% of patients with and without diabetes died; adjusted HR 1.59 (1.33-1.91). Conclusions—In HFpEF, patients with diabetes have more signs of congestion, worse quality of life, higher NT-proBNP levels, and a poorer prognosis. They also display greater structural and functional echocardiographic abnormalities. Further investigation is needed to determine the mediators of the adverse impact of diabetes on outcomes in HFPEF, and whether they are modifiable

The drivers of AGN activity in galaxy clusters: AGN fraction as a function of mass and environment

We present an analysis of optical spectroscopically identified active galactic nuclei (AGN) down to a cluster magnitude of M * + 1 in a sample of six self-similar Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxy clusters at z ~ 0.07. These clusters are specifically selected to lack significant substructure at bright limits in their central regions so that we are largely able to eliminate the local action of merging clusters on the frequency of AGN. We demonstrate that the AGN fraction increases significantly from the cluster centre to 1.5R virial , but tails off at larger radii. If only comparing the cluster core region to regions at ~2R virial , no significant variation would be found. We compute the AGN fraction by mass and show that massive galaxies (log(stellarmass) > 10.7) are host to a systematically higher fraction of AGN than lower mass galaxies at all radii from the cluster centre. We attribute this deficit of AGN in the cluster centre to the changing mix of galaxy types with radius. We use the WHAN diagnostic to separate weak AGN from 'retired' galaxies in which the main ionization mechanism comes from old stellar populations. These retired AGN are found at all radii, while the mass effect is much more pronounced: we find that massive galaxies are more likely to be in the retired class. Further, we show that our AGN have no special position inside galaxy clusters - they are neither preferentially located in the infall regions nor situated at local maxima of galaxy density as measured with ∑ 5 . However, we find that the most powerful AGN (with [O III] equivalent widths < -10 Å) reside at significant velocity offsets in the cluster, and this brings our analysis into agreement with previous work on X-ray-selected AGN. Our results suggest that if interactions with other galaxies are responsible for triggering AGN activity, the time lag between trigger and AGN enhancement must be sufficiently long to obfuscate the encounter site and wipe out the local galaxy density signal. © 2012 The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society

Heart failure and cognitive impairment: Challenges and opportunities

As populations age, heart failure (HF) is becoming increasingly common, and in addition to a high burden of morbidity and mortality, HF has an enormous financial impact. Though disproportionately affected by HF, the elderly are less likely to receive recommended therapies, in part because clinical trials of HF therapy have ignored outcomes of importance to this population, including impaired cognitive function (ICF). HF is associated with ICF, manifested primarily as delirium in hospitalized patients, or as mild cognitive impairment or dementia in otherwise stable outpatients. This association is likely the result of shared risk factors, as well as perfusion and rheological abnormalities that occur in patients with HF. Evidence suggests that these abnormalities may be partially reversible with standard HF therapy. The clinical consequences of ICF in HF patients are significant. Clinicians should consider becoming familiar with screening instruments for ICF, including delirium and dementia, in order to identify patients at risk of nonadherence to HF therapy and related adverse consequences. Preliminary evidence suggests that optimal HF therapy in elderly patients may preserve or even improve cognitive function, though the impact on related outcomes remains to be determined

Heart Failure in Older Persons: Considerations For The Primary Care Physician

Heart failure (HF) affects over 500,000 Canadians, with 50,000 new patients diagnosed each year. While mortality from cardiovascular diseases has progressively declined in Canada, the burden of HF is expected to continue rising as a result of population aging and improved survival of patients with other cardiovascular diseases. HF is the leading cause of hospitalization and death among those aged 65 years and over, with a mortality rate of up to 50% within 5 years of diagnosis. Elderly HF patients are complex: a recent Ontario study of home care recipients with HF found that these clients had more health instability, took more medications, and had more co-morbidities compared with other home care clients. Optimal management of HF in “complex seniors” requires that clinicians understand the interactions between HF and age-associated syndromes such as frailty, cognitive impairment, and functional decline. As the majority of Canadian patients with HF are treated by primary care providers (PCPs), this article is directed at PCPs caring for older adults with HF. It is meant as a brief overview and discusses how the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) Consensus Guidelines on HF can be applied in daily practice

A National Survey of Resources to Address Sepsis in Children in Tertiary Care Centers in Nigeria.

Background: Infections leading to sepsis are major contributors to mortality and morbidity in children world-wide. Determining the capacity of pediatric hospitals in Nigeria to manage sepsis establishes an important baseline for quality-improvement interventions and resource allocations. Objectives: To assess the availability and functionality of resources and manpower for early detection and prompt management of sepsis in children at tertiary pediatric centers in Nigeria. Methods: This was an online survey of tertiary pediatric hospitals in Nigeria using a modified survey tool designed by the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies (WFPICCS). The survey addressed all aspects of pediatric sepsis identification, management, barriers and readiness. Results: While majority of the hospitals 97% (28/29) reported having adequate triage systems, only 60% (16/27) follow some form of guideline for sepsis management. There was no consensus national guideline for management of pediatric sepsis. Over 50% of the respondents identified deficit in parental education, poor access to healthcare services, failure to diagnose sepsis at referring institutions, lack of medical equipment and lack of a definitive protocol for managing pediatric sepsis, as significant barriers. Conclusions: Certain sepsis-related interventions were reportedly widespread, however, there is no standardized sepsis protocol, and majority of the hospitals do not have pediatric intensive care units (PICU). These findings could guide quality improvement measures at institutional level, and healthcare policy/spending at the national level

The Value of Admission Clinical Data for Diagnosing Heart Failure in Long-term Care

Background Heart failure (HF) is common in long-term care (LTC). Diagnostic uncertainty is important barrier to optimal HF management, stemming from inadequate health information transfer upon LTC admission. We determine the utility of admission clinical information to confirm a HF diagnosis in new LTC residents. Methods This was a prospective cohort study. From February 2004 to November 2006, information about new residents from 41 LTC homes in Ontario, Canada, was collected from residents and caregivers, and all available health records. A prior HF diagnosis was confirmed by consensus review of available data by two independent experts. Multivariate modelling was utilized to determine the utility of the admission clinical assessment in confirming a prior HF diagnosis. Results A total of 449 residents were included for analysis, aged84.3±6.5 years, and 21.6% had a prior HF diagnosis. The most useful clinical item for diagnosing HF was a “history of HF”. The final model included “history of HF’ (OR [odds ratio] 13.66, 95% CI 6.61–28.24), “fluid on the lungs” (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.04–3.89), “orthopnea” (OR 1.76, 95% CI 0.93–3.33), “taking β-blocker” (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.10– 3.94), “taking loop diuretics” (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.12–3.98), and “history of coronary artery disease” (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.42–5.64). Conclusion Elements of the clinical assessment for new LTC residents can help confirm a prior HF diagnosis. An admission history of HF is highly predictiveCanadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR; Study ID 117947-BCA-CEBA-126289