Probabilistic risk assessment for the Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility worst-case design-basis accident

This paper presents results from a Los Alamos National Laboratory Engineering and Safety Analysis Group assessment of the worse-case design-basis accident associated with the Clinton P. Anderson Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF)/Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) Facility. The primary goal of the analysis was to quantify the accident sequences that result in personnel radiation exposure in the WNR Experimental Hall following the worst-case design-basis accident, a complete spill of the LAMPF accelerator 1L beam. This study also provides information regarding the roles of hardware systems and operators in these sequences, and insights regarding the areas where improvements can increase facility-operation safety. Results also include confidence ranges to incorporate combined effects of uncertainties in probability estimates and importance measures to determine how variations in individual events affect the frequencies in accident sequences