Forecasting Methods for Marketing: Review of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing,and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed

An Experimental Study of the Impact of Judgment-Based Marketing Models

The impact of a decision calculus model on decision quality is assessed in a laboratory setting. An experimental design assesses the effects of: (a) the size of the problem (i.e., the number of control units over which allocations are to be made), (b) the noise-to-signal ratio in the market and (c) individual differences among the model users. The aspects of individual differences studied are: (1) time taken on the task, (2) mathematical ability and (3) cognitive style. The main experiment involved 96 subjects in a full factorial design. In general, the decision calculus model had a beneficial impact on a broad range of decision quality measures, particularly profit achievement.marketing

Discrimination in Recruitment: An Empirical Analysis

The recent study by Jerry M. Newman addresses an important issue and uses a most creative experimental paradigm,(1) but close inspection of the methodology, results, and conclusions casts grave doubts on the validity of the study. The most serious prob- lem lies in Newman\u27s operational defini- tion of racial discrimination

Preferential Treatment in Preselection Decisions According to Sex and Race

Resumes of fictitious applicants for entry-level professional positions were mailed to 458 potential employers, and the responses were analyzed. A three-group experimental design permitted control for differential response not due to the race and sex treatment. Preferential treatment was found in favor of blacks over whites and in favor of males over females

Comments on ÜModels and Managers: The Concept of a Decision CalculusÝ

Managerial models for practice have undergone remarkable growth in the past 50 years. My paper on decision calculus, published in 1970, was both a progress report and a prescription for improvement. This commentary describes why I wrote the paper, my perception of why it has been considered influential, and a brief overview of what has happened since. The overview starts by tracing the trends and ideas of the 1960s into the 1970s. The 1970s blend easily into the era of decision support systems (DSS). Starting late in the decade and still continuing, DSSs have evolved rapidly due to an explosion of data, increased computer power, and advances in modeling methods. I review highlights of this evolution from the point of view of managerial models, giving special emphasis to marketing, since that has been my window on this world. The good news is that more managers than ever are using models. The bad news is that many managers do not even realize they are using models! (But we should ask whether this is really bad.) The commentary concludes with thoughts about the future of managerial models. The selection of my paper as one of the most influential in the first 50 years of Management Science was a significant honor for which I am grateful. I take it as an indication by the members of INFORMS of the importance to our field of the issues addressed.decision calculus, managerial models, decision support, DSS, marketing models