The demographic challenge facing Scottish HEIs: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs' income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs. Keywords: HEIs, University Impact, Input-Output

Impact of HEIs on the Scottish economy: new evidence from an HEI-disaggregated input-output approach

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs' income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs. Keywords: HEIs, University Impact, Input-Output

Attribution of pollution generation to local private and public demands in a small open economy: results from a SAM-based neo-classical linear attribution system for Scotland

For the construction of environmental accounts, Input Output (IO) systems have a number of clear advantages. First IO is an internally consistency, rigorous accounting framework. Second, the characteristics of IO systems are well known. Third, IO systems focus on the link between intermediate and final demands, and can attribute the indirect, intermediate use of commodities to elements of final demand. However, there are concerns over the degree of appropriateness of the standard IO attribution approaches (McGregor et al, 2001a). If standard Type I output-pollution multiplier, especially in the case of a very open economy such as Scotland, responsibility for much pollution can be attributed to external sources of demand. Furthermore, when Type II output-pollution multipliers are utilised, local private consumption virtually disappears as a pollution source. This seems to be at variance with the common environmental approach, which would wish to place domestic consumption at the centre of pollution attribution

Devolution and the economy : a Scottish perspective

In their interesting and challenging chapter John Adams and Peter Robinson assess the consequences for economic development policy of the devolution measures enacted by the UK Labour government post 1997. Their chapter ranges widely over current UK regional disparities, the link between devolution and economic growth, the balance of responsibilities in policy between Whitehall and the devolved administrations, and finally, they raise questions about the developing "quasi-federal" role of Whitehall in regulating or coordinating the new devolved policy landscape. In response, we propose to focus on four issues that we believe are key to understanding the economic consequences of devolution both at the Scottish and UK levels. First, we argue that the view of Scotland's devolutionary experience in economic policy is partial and so does not fully capture the nature and extent of change post 1999. Secondly, we examine the role of devolution in regional economic performance. There is much in their paper on this topic with which we agree but we contend that there are significant omissions in the analysis, which are important for policy choice. Our third section highlights an area not discussed in depth by Adams and Robinson's paper: the funding of the devolution settlement. Here we consider some of the implications of funding arrangements for economic performance and the options for a new funding settlement. Finally, we deal with the difficult issue of co-ordination between the centre and the devolved regions. We contend that co-ordination is largely conspicuous by its absence. Moreover, where coordination is deployed it reflects an inadequate understanding of the extent to which the economies of the regions and devolved territories of the UK are linked

The demographic challenge facing Scottish higher education institutions : a computable general equilibrium analysis

Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are generally regarded as important actors in regional economic development. A large literature exists on their demand side impacts as employers and as purchasers of intermediate inputs and, more recently, work has been undertaken to explore their impacts on the supply side, for example, through labour market and knowledge transfer effects. A growing evidence base suggests that HEIs have a positive impact upon the development of their host regions. However the HEI sector faces a challenge that might have significant impact on the fortunes of its host regions and has hitherto received limited attention. The populations of most developed countries are ageing and the age cohort from which university students are traditionally drawn is expected to shrink. This paper uses an HEIs-disaggregated Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the economic impacts of a shrinking student population upon Scotland. In the analysis we use scenarios presented in a recent Universities UK report. This paper is an output of our project entitled The Overall Impact of HEIs on Regional Economies (ESRC, RES-171-25-0032). This project is one of nine that are funded under the joint UK Higher Education Funding Councils and ESRC Initiative on The Impact of HEIs on Regional Economies. (All UK funding councils are involved: Scottish Funding Council, Higher Education Funding Council for England and Wales, and the Department for Employment and Learning Northern Ireland. We also acknowledge supplementary funding from the Centre for Public Policy for Regions (funded by SFC)

The impact of higher education institutions (HEIs) on the Scottish economy : new evidence from an HEI-disaggregated input-output approach

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs’ income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs

Three and Four Region Multi-sector Linear Modelling Using UK Data : Some Preliminary Results

Scotland and Wales have relatively up-to-date, independently generated, IO tables. These can be separated out from a UK national IO table to construct an inter-regional table. We therefore undertake the detailed analysis at this three-region (Scotland, Wales and the Rest of the UK (RUK)) level, where the Rest of the UK is England and Northern Ireland. However, we also construct a more rudimentary four-region (Scotland, Wales, England and Ireland) set of IO and SAM accounts by constructing a separate Northern Ireland accounts. The inter-regional IO and SAM models are produced for the year 1999. This was determined by the availability of consistent data. In Section II we describe the construction of a three-region Input-Output model for the United Kingdom, which includes the regions of Scotland, Wales and the Rest of the UK (RUK). In Section III we extend the three-region model to construct an inter-regional Social Accounting Matrix. Section IV reports some results using the three-region IO and SAM models. In Section V, we generate a four-region IO and SAM model for the UK, which disaggregates Northern Ireland from the Rest of the UK, and provide some results using the four-region IO and SAM models. Section VI offers our conclusions

Cox regression survival analysis with compositional covariates: application to modelling mortality risk from 24-h physical activity patterns

Survival analysis is commonly conducted in medical and public health research to assess the association of an exposure or intervention with a hard end outcome such as mortality. The Cox (proportional hazards) regression model is probably the most popular statistical tool used in this context. However, when the exposure includes compositional covariables (that is, variables representing a relative makeup such as a nutritional or physical activity behaviour composition), some basic assumptions of the Cox regression model and associated significance tests are violated. Compositional variables involve an intrinsic interplay between one another which precludes results and conclusions based on considering them in isolation as is ordinarily done. In this work, we introduce a formulation of the Cox regression model in terms of log-ratio coordinates which suitably deals with the constraints of compositional covariates, facilitates the use of common statistical inference methods, and allows for scientifically meaningful interpretations. We illustrate its practical application to a public health problem: the estimation of the mortality hazard associated with the composition of daily activity behaviour (physical activity, sitting time and sleep) using data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

The Weak Protection of Strong Encryption: Passwords, Privacy, and Fifth Amendment Privilege

While the constitutional protection afforded private papers has waxed and waned for more than a century, the Supreme Court has greatly restricted the Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination--at least as applied to voluntarily prepared documents. Specifically, where the government knows of the existence and location of subpoenaed documents, the Fifth Amendment guarantee will not justify a failure to produce them, unless the act of production would itself incriminate the defendant. However, the Self-Incrimination Clause still precludes the compelled creation of documents that are both incriminating and testimonial. The private papers doctrine has remained relatively stable for approximately thirty years now, even though most documents--including private papers --presumably exist on various digital media, the retrieval of which require sophisticated, if ubiquitous, technology. Arguably, encrypted documents do not comport well with the general rule that discoverable materials must be produced in a readable format. Few courts have ruled on motions to quash subpoenas for encrypted files, and each has simply applied the private papers doctrine with no discussion of whether encrypted documents warrant special protection. While the decisions in these cases are reasonable enough, decryption by court order would at least appear to compel incriminating testimony--contrary to the Fifth Amendment. Though unstated in the opinions, these courts may have agreed with the many companies and commentators who compare the encryption of documents to their placement in a locked safe. While merely sequestering documents clearly does not protect them from a valid subpoena, this simple analogy fails to capture several important features of encryption. This Note considers an alternative conceptualization that, while less intuitive, more accurately reflects these important features. Under this paradigm, the private papers doctrine probably still applies to encrypted contraband, but courts should not adhere to an inappropriate analogy in any event. Ideally the Supreme Court would expressly grant encrypted documents no greater protection under the Fifth Amendment than that currently afforded traditional private papers