The Scottish economy [July 1975]

Scottish GDP in real terms increased in 1974, and our central estimate for this increase is £4106m at constant prices; this represents an increase of 0.8% over 1973. Modest though this is, in a year in which UK GDP as a whole actually declined it can be regarded with some satisfaction. Indeed our qualitative judgement is that the statistical forecast is, if anything on the conservative side, though as yet our forecasting methods are insufficiently developed to include these additional indicators of activity levels. Trends in GDP during the first quarter of 1975 are more difficult to predict

Econometric forecasts for Scotland

In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models

Foreign investment in Scotland

A significant feature of the UK economy throughout the post-war period has been the growth in direct foreign investment in manufacturing industries. For the host nation the main benefits are employment creation, income generation and import reduction or export expansion. Scotland has been particularly successful in attracting the lion's inward investment for example in the period 1945- 1965 a total of 108,500 jobs were created by foreign firms setting up manufacturing units in the despite its size, obtained 46,221 (42.6%), whereas the second most SE England, gained only 16,926 (15.6%). The reasons for this success have been attributed primarily to a combination of the availability of labour in Scotland, the financial inducements offered by central government as part of regional policy and, the undoubted attraction of the environment, notably of course golf courses, for foreign businessmen. This brief paper explores the nature of Scotland's direct foreign investment and the reasons for its success

Summary [October 1975]

This brief paper summarises world, UK and Scottish economic conditions in the quarter to October 1975. The downward trend in production in the industrialised countries which took effect from about the middle of 1974 appears to have continued throughout the first half of 1975. While Japan experienced a slight rise in industrial production in the second quarter of this year, a general recovery of world trade appears to be waiting for unmistakable signs of recovery in economic activity in the United States. Evidence from the United States is conflicting, and therefore it seems unlikely that output in the industrialised countries will increase before the end of the year. These uncertainties may postpone recovery in the United Kingdom

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

The Scottish economy [October 1979]

The previous two issues of this Commentary have both indicated that the Scottish economy has been performing poorly since the mid 1970's. This is true in both an absolute and a relative sense. Manufacturing production only increased by 1.2% between 1976 and 1978 and, after dropping below 1975 levels in the first quarter of 1979, is unlikely to show any substantial improvement for the year as a whole. In an international context the 1975-1978 performance can best be described as appalling. Over the same period industrial production in Eire grew by 28%, in Japan and the US by 23% and in West Germany and France by 15%. Inertia in developing new markets and lack of competitiveness in existing markets both contributed substantially to the virtual stagnation of Scottish output. Because the problems are so diverse, so too must be the solutions

The tax and price index

A feature of this year's Budget was the shift in emphasis from direct taxation to indirect taxation. The annual yield of income tax has been reduced by £4½ billion while that of direct taxes was increased by a similar amount. It must be acknowledged that the new tax and price index has a number of deficiencies. It is only applicable to a proportion of the population, namely those who pay tax and whose gross income is less than £10,000 per annum. It takes no account of the social wage, nor of changes in benefits, such as the recent restructuring of child allowance. It smoothes out tax payments over a full year even though, for administrative reasons, these may fluctuate widely from month to month. This brief paper explores some of these deficiencies in more detail and assess their impact on taxation

Parasite Burden and CD36-Mediated Sequestration Are Determinants of Acute Lung Injury in an Experimental Malaria Model

Although acute lung injury (ALI) is a common complication of severe malaria, little is known about the underlying molecular basis of lung dysfunction. Animal models have provided powerful insights into the pathogenesis of severe malaria syndromes such as cerebral malaria (CM); however, no model of malaria-induced lung injury has been definitively established. This study used bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), histopathology and gene expression analysis to examine the development of ALI in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA (PbA). BAL fluid of PbA-infected C57BL/6 mice revealed a significant increase in IgM and total protein prior to the development of CM, indicating disruption of the alveolar–capillary membrane barrier—the physiological hallmark of ALI. In contrast to sepsis-induced ALI, BAL fluid cell counts remained constant with no infiltration of neutrophils. Histopathology showed septal inflammation without cellular transmigration into the alveolar spaces. Microarray analysis of lung tissue from PbA-infected mice identified a significant up-regulation of expressed genes associated with the gene ontology categories of defense and immune response. Severity of malaria-induced ALI varied in a panel of inbred mouse strains, and development of ALI correlated with peripheral parasite burden but not CM susceptibility. Cd36−/− mice, which have decreased parasite lung sequestration, were relatively protected from ALI. In summary, parasite burden and CD36-mediated sequestration in the lung are primary determinants of ALI in experimental murine malaria. Furthermore, differential susceptibility of mouse strains to malaria-induced ALI and CM suggests that distinct genetic determinants may regulate susceptibility to these two important causes of malaria-associated morbidity and mortality

A medium term model for Scotland

The model which is outlined in rather general terms in this paper forms the central core of the Fraser Institute's research programme for the next three years. The model itself is an extension and development of research carried out in the Institute over the past four years, and a synthesis of much of the current work being undertaken. Although many of the equations of the model will be estimated econometrically, or will be based on observed data such as input/output tables or occupation-industry matrices, both gaps in data and gaps in our understanding of the determinants of medium and long-term changes in the economy imply a simulation rather than a forecasting model. Nonetheless it is to be hoped that the time paths of the Scottish economy simulated by the model will offer a plausible guide to the actual development of the economy during the next decade and beyond

Social indicators

The July 1977 issue of our Commentary suggested that "the East End of Glasgow was the most socially deprived area in the most socially deprived region in Europe - Strathclyde". Coupling this with the popular conception of a prosperous East, one is left with the impression of a dual society in Scotland. The purpose of this article is to collate and present several tables of indicators of the "quality of life" in Scotland, both comparing its constituent elements and putting the nation in a wider UK context. Further, we shall tentatively suggest which might be considered "key indicators". This seems an opportune point in time to initiate such a study and to prepare the ground for more comprehensive secular and regional comparisons in the future