Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change

Improved analysis of COMPTEL solar neutron data, with application to the 15 June 1991 flare

Direct solar flare neutrons are a valuable diagnostic of high- energy ion acceleration in these events, and COMPTEL improves over all previous cosmic neutron detectors in its capacity for neutron energy measurement. Previous studies of COMPTEL neutron data have worked with an incomplete model of the instrumental response, applying energy-by-energy detection efficiencies. Here we employ statistical regularisation techniques with the full (Monte Carlo simulation derived) response matrix to produce improved estimates of neutron numbers and energy distribution. These techniques are applied to data from the well-observed 15 June 1991 flare. Our improved treatment of the instrumental response results in a reduction of 73% in total neutron numbers, compared with previously deduced values. Implications for the picture of primary ion acceleration in this flare are briefly discussed