44 research outputs found
Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data
Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an
important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning
maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are
complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and
transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to
develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy
company's fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The
company's data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and
failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that
were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were
installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right
censored. We use a parametric lifetime model to describe the lifetime
distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure,
based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval
for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend
these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative
number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of
transformers.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00-AOAS231 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage
Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES) in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market
Vegetation Type Dominates the Spatial Variability in CH<inf>4</inf> Emissions Across Multiple Arctic Tundra Landscapes
Methane (CH4) emissions from Arctic tundra are an important feedback to global climate. Currently, modelling and predicting CH4 fluxes at broader scales are limited by the challenge of upscaling plot-scale measurements in spatially heterogeneous landscapes, and by uncertainties regarding key controls of CH4 emissions. In this study, CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured together with a range of environmental variables and detailed vegetation analysis at four sites spanning 300 km latitude from Barrow to Ivotuk (Alaska). We used multiple regression modelling to identify drivers of CH4 flux, and to examine relationships between gross primary productivity (GPP), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CH4 fluxes. We found that a highly simplified vegetation classification consisting of just three vegetation types (wet sedge, tussock sedge and other) explained 54% of the variation in CH4 fluxes across the entire transect, performing almost as well as a more complex model including water table, sedge height and soil moisture (explaining 58% of the variation in CH4 fluxes). Substantial CH4 emissions were recorded from tussock sedges in locations even when the water table was lower than 40 cm below the surface, demonstrating the importance of plant-mediated transport. We also found no relationship between instantaneous GPP and CH4 fluxes, suggesting that models should be cautious in assuming a direct relationship between primary production and CH4 emissions. Our findings demonstrate the importance of vegetation as an integrator of processes controlling CH4 emissions in Arctic ecosystems, and provide a simplified framework for upscaling plot scale CH4 flux measurements from Arctic ecosystems
A methodology for determining the effects of non-utility generation on inter-area oscillations in electric power systems
Ph.D.John F. Dorse
Multiagent System Solutions for Distributed Computing, Communications, and Data Integration Needs in the Power Industry
Abstract-- We identify three fundamental issues underlying many problems in power systems today: distributed computing, communications, and data integration. We review the characteristics of intelligent agents and multi-agent systems (MAS) technologies and argue that MAS offer a modular, extensible, flexible, and integrated approach to address all three of these issues and the problems resulting from them. The MAS design methodology is summarized, and an illustrative MAS application scenario in electric power systems is presented. Keywords--Multiagent systems, distributed computing, communication, data and information, design methodology, negotiated decision-making.
A CLUSTER DISTRIBUTION AS A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING HIGH-ORDER-EVENT PROBABILITIES IN POWER SYSTEMS
Composite Security Boundary Visualization
Based on a recently developed security assessment methodology using automatic training data generation software and neural networks, a composite security boundary visualization approach is proposed for power system operations. This approach can draw a single continuous boundary given multiple individual security problems. It can be conveniently accessed on-line and can be easily integrated into the energy management system (EMS). Examples are given for demonstration of the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Keywords--- Boundary visualization, security assessment, operations planning, power systems. I. Introduction In the open access environment, utilities face unparalleled challenges and take risks to be more competitive. One of these risks is that typical operating conditions tend to be much closer to security boundaries. This is because transmission utilization is increasing in sudden and unpredictable directions, and competition together with other regulatory requirements mak..