What the Developing Countries Want from the WTO

There is a very strong consensus among economists that developing countries have the most to gain from movements towards freer trade under the WTO. But the Seattle WTO meeting was suspended in part because of vocal NGOs who charged that free trade and globalization were not in poor countriesÂ’ interests. This paper makes three points. First, developing countries do have much to gain from general trade liberalization. Trade expansion is positively linked to growth. Second, agricultural trade liberalization offers even greater gains than liberalization in other sectors because of the heavy dominance of agriculture in poor countriesÂ’ economies. Third, not all developing countries are poor, food-deficit, importing countries. They are a heterogeneous group and many are agricultural exporters. An open-economy development strategy has historically paid off for developing countries and is still the best bet for the future. Therefore, a WTO agreement which provides a fair, open, transparent, and rules-based international trading environment is absolutely critical to reducing poverty in these countries. They need access to markets and protection from predatory practices by large rich countries. The WTO is the best game in town.developing countries, NGOs, non-trade issues, open trade regimes, International Relations/Trade,

Greatest Contributions to Our Profession by Agricultural and Resource Economists - Some Musings to Stir Discussion

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Liberalizing Agricultural Trade: Will It Ever Be a Reality?

The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture was signed in June 1994. It accomplished two things: it brought agricultural trade under the rules of WTO, and it set schedules for reducing barriers to trade under the three pillars of liberalization--market access, export assistance, and domestic support. Nine years later there has been precious little liberalization. The new Doha Round has ambitious objectives for agricultural trade liberalization. However, given recent behavior by rich developed countries, it seems unlikely that developing countries will get increased access to Northern markets or reduced competition from subsidized exports, despite their now representing a majority of WTO members.agricultural trade, barriers, distortions, improved access, liberalization, policy, protection, WTO, International Relations/Trade,

Do Macroeconomic Variables Affect the Agricultural Trade Sector? An Elasticities Analysis

International Relations/Trade,

Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions

During the last half century, a number of individuals and institutions, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and IFPRI, have engaged in projections of future food demand, supply, and related variables. In this brief, Alex McCalla and Cesar Revoredo compare projections with real-life outcomes. Projections forecast outcomes on the basis of certain underlying factors. If such forecasted outcomes are undesirable, changes may be made in the underlying factors so that the projections may not, in fact, come to pass. Many projections serve this precise goal. Therefore, the success of projections may not be that they match actual outcomes but that they avoid such outcomes by promoting action to change underlying variables. Unlike predictions, which are successful only if they match actual outcomes, projections that differ from actual outcomes may reflect either poor projection models or changes in underlying variables, possibly caused by the projections themselves.Food consumption., Food security.,

What if the Doha Round Fails? Implications for Canadian Agriculture

Many commentators assume that the WTO Doha Round negotiations have already failed and that this failure will not matter for Canadian agriculture. Neither view is correct. Most countries appear willing to make the effort needed to bring the negotiations to a make or break point in early 2008. If the Doha Round does eventually fail, an important opportunity to make the agricultural trading system significantly less distorted, more open and fair will have been lost. For Canadian agriculture, the failure to move the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) forward has more serious consequences than just missing the chance to improve the rules governing agricultural trade; it could signal a return to increased protectionism, more managed trade, a return to competitive subsidization, and an escalation in the number of trade disputes.International Relations/Trade,

What if the Doha Round Fails? Implications for Canadian Agriculture

Many commentators assume that the WTO Doha Round negotiations have already failed and that this failure will not matter for Canadian agriculture. Neither view is correct. Most countries appear willing to make the effort needed to bring the negotiations to a make or break point in early 2008. If the Doha Round does eventually fail, an important opportunity to make the agricultural trading system significantly less distorted, more open and fair will have been lost. For Canadian agriculture, the failure to move the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) forward has more serious consequences than just missing the chance to improve the rules governing agricultural trade; it could signal a return to increased protectionism, more managed trade, a return to competitive subsidization, and an escalation in the number of trade disputes.International Relations/Trade,

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AREA FOR AGRICULTURE

This is one of two papers commissioned by the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium on various aspects related to the agricultural sector of a prospective North American Free Trade Agreement. The companion paper to this one has been prepared by a working group chaired by Thomas Grennes, North Carolina State University. To minimize duplication with the Grennes paper, this paper has given greater attention to the general trade policy issues raised by a NAFTA, institutional factors, additional commodity detail in cereals, fruit and vegetables, and the relevance of other regional trade agreements such as the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement. This work has also benefitted from an earlier report and its annexes, prepared for the Fraser Institute, under the direction of Tim Josling.International Relations/Trade,

A strategic framework for improving food security in Arab countries

In 2007 and the first half of 2008, a sharp rise in agricultural commodity and food prices triggered grave concerns about food security, malnutrition and increased poverty. While the threat of a prolonged food-price shock receded in the second half of 2008, many factors underlying the price volatility are likely to persist, and will require careful management if future food-price shocks are to be avoided. This paper suggests three strategies that, together, could reduce vulnerability to price shocks: (1) strengthen safety nets, improve access to family planning services, and promote education; (2) enhance domestic food production and improve rural livelihoods through increased investment in research and development to increase productivity; and (3) reduce exposure to market volatility through more efficient supply chains and better use of financial instruments to hedge risk. The challenge of food security will require a global response, involving governments, international and regional funding and lending institutions, United Nations agencies, non-governmental organizations, civil society, and the private sector

Report of ESCOP Subcommittee on Domestic and International Markets and Policy

International Relations/Trade,