Discrepancy Analysis of Complex Objects Using Dissimilarities

In this article we consider objects for which we have a matrix of dissimilarities and we are interested in their links with covariates. We focus on state sequences for which pairwise dissimilarities are given for instance by edit distances. The methods discussed apply however to any kind of objects and measures of dissimilarities. We start with a generalization of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to assess the link of complex objects (e.g. sequences) with a given categorical variable. The trick is to show that discrepancy among objects can be derived from the sole pairwise dissimilarities, which permits then to identify factors that most reduce this discrepancy. We present a general statistical test and introduce an original way of rendering the results for state sequences. We then generalize the method to the case with more than one factor and discuss its advantages and limitations especially regarding interpretation. Finally, we introduce a new tree method for analyzing discrepancy of complex objects that exploits the former test as splitting criterion. We demonstrate the scope of the methods presented through a study of the factors that most discriminate Swiss occupational trajectories. All methods presented are freely accessible in our TraMineR package for the R statistical environment

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter