An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources.Discrete Stochastic Programming Model, climate change, water availability, irrigation requirements, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Evoluzione del clima e incertezza delle scelte sui sistemi colturali in un comprensorio irriguo del Nord Sardegna

L’analisi quantitativa dell’impatto dei cambiamenti climatici (CC) sui sistemi colturali implica l’impiego di modelli di simulazione adeguatamente calibrati. Il modello EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) (Williams, 1995) è stato ampiamente validato per simulare le risposte delle colture e dei relativi fabbisogni idrici ai CC (Adejuwon, 2005, Tourè et al., 1994). In questo lavoro, i risultati delle simulazioni effettuate con EPIC sono stati utilizzati come input per il modello di analisi economica per valutare l’impatto del CC sulle scelte dei sistemi coltutali in un comprensorio irriguo della Sardegna del nord

L’impatto economico dei cambiamenti climatici sulla disponibilità di acqua irrigua in un’area del Mediterraneo

L’impatto economico dei Cambiamenti Climatici sulla disponibilità di acqua irrigua in un’area del Mediterraneo, di Gabriele Dono e Graziano Mazzapicchio Questo studio valuta alcuni effetti economici e produttivi del cambiamento climatico sull’agricoltura di un’area irrigua dell’Italia meridionale. Esso considera, in particolare, la variazione dovuta al cambiamento nel regime delle piogge sulla disponibilità d’acqua per l’irrigazione in una diga. Stimato il rapporto tra precipitazioni e volumi d’acqua nella diga, si definiscono le distribuzioni dei vari stati d’invaso idrico nel passato, nel presente e in uno scenario futuro. Queste distribuzioni sono usate per rappresentare le attese degli agricoltori sulle condizioni di disponibilità idrica che potrebbero affermarsi passando da una situazione di stabilità a una di crescente variabilità dei fenomeni piovosi. In particolare, tali distribuzioni sono inserite in un modello di Programmazione Stocastica Discreta che riproduce le scelte delle aziende agricole dell’area, dato il valore stocastico atteso per l’acqua d’irrigazione disponibile in diga. I risultati delle simulazioni ottenuti confrontando gli scenari del presente e del futuro con quello del passato, evidenziano un calo dei redditi e dell’occupazione soprattutto in alcune tipologie aziendali. Emergono anche modifiche nell’uso del suolo, con un calo nell’uso dei fattori produttivi e un aumento della quantità di acqua estratta dai pozzi aziendali.Cambiamento Climatico, disponibilità di acqua, Programmazione Stocastica Discreta, impatto economico

An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources