Is uncertainty in complex disease epidemiology resolvable?

The imposed limitations on what we can know about nature have been long recognized. Yet in the field of epidemiology a futile search for lifestyle-related risk factors for common chronic diseases continues unabated. This has led to the production of a growing body of evidence about potential lifestyle risk factors that tend to be marginal, contradictory, irreproducible, or hard to interpret. While epidemiologists are calling for a more refined methodology, I argue that our limitation in studying complex diseases is insurmountable. This is because the study of lifestyle-related small risks requires accurate measurement of multiple behaviors-exposures over a long period of time. It is also because in complex systems such as population?s health, the effect of rich interactions between its parts cannot be predicted based on traditional causal models of epidemiology. Within complex systems, understanding the interactions between system components can be more important than the contribution of each to disease risk

Estimating the beginning of the waterpipe epidemic in Syria

BACKGROUND: Waterpipe smoking is becoming a global public health problem, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). METHODS: We try in this study, which is a cross sectional survey among a representative sample of waterpipe smokers in cafes/restaurants in Aleppo-Syria, to assess the time period for the beginning of this new smoking hype. We recruited 268 waterpipe smokers (161 men, 107 women; mean age ± standard deviation (SD) 30.1 ± 10.2, response rate 95.3%). Participants were divided into 4 birth cohorts (≤ 1960, 1961–1970, 1971–1980, >1980) and year of initiation of waterpipe smoking and daily cigarette smoking were plotted according to these birth cohorts. RESULTS: Data indicate that unlike initiation of cigarette smoking, which shows a clear age-related pattern, the nineties was the starting point for most of waterpipe smoking implicating this time period for the beginning of the waterpipe epidemic in Syria. CONCLUSION: The introduction of new flavored and aromatic waterpipe tobacco (Maassel), and the proliferation of satellite and electronic media during the nineties may have helped spread the new hype all over the Arab World

The Gateway Effect of E-cigarettes: Reflections on Main Criticisms

The recent spread of e-cigarette use has spurred not only enthusiasm about their harm reduction and smoking cessation potential but also concerns about possible risks from long-term use, and stalled cessation through dual use.1 Another main concern is that e-cigarette use is increasing among tobacco-naive youth2 than among only adult smokers who are using them for cessation and expectation of risk reduction.1 With youth smoking at all-time lows in several nations with advanced tobacco control programs,3–5 there are therefore concerns that e-cigarettes may stall or reverse these declines as youth who were likely to never use any form of nicotine become familiar with it, and start experimenting with other forms of nicotine delivery. These concerns were strengthened by the recent publication of a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies showing that e-cigarettes can serve as a gateway to later cigarette smoking among nicotine-naive youth.6 They were also emphasized by the 2018 report of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM),7 which concluded that such studies “provided “strong evidence of plausibility and specificity of a possible causal effect of e-cigarette use on smoking…” with the Committee “consider[ing] the overall body of evidence of a causal effect of e-cigarette use on risk of transition from never to ever smoking to be substantial” (pp. 16–32). By contrast, Public Health England concluded, “Despite some experimentation with these devices among never smokers, e-cigarettes are attracting very few young people who have never smoked into regular use”.8 Given the importance of putative gateway or “catalyst”9 effects in assessing the population impact of e-cigarettes, proponents of e-cigarettes were quick to criticize such evidence and their underlying gateway hypothesis.10–13 In the context of this debate, the gateway hypothesis is adapted to denote the use of less harmful forms of nicotine delivery (eg, e-cigarettes), leading to the use of more harmful ones (eg, combustible cigarettes).7,10–13 We here present and respond to three major criticisms that have been made of e-cigarettes’ gateway potential based on currently available evidence

Missing the elephant in the vaping transition room.

We respond to a paper by Coleman B et al Transitions in electronic cigarette use among adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 1 and 2 (2013-2105). Tobacco Control 2018; doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-054174 which reports on the vaping and smoking status of 2932 adult e-cigarette users followed for 12 months in a national, stratified US study. For every person vaping at Wave 1 who benefited across 12 months by quitting smoking, there are 2.1 who either relapsed to smoking to or took-up smoking. Most disturbingly, in this adult cohort nearly one in four of those who had never been established smokers took up smoking after first using EC. Concern about putative gateway effects of ECs to smoking have been dominated by concerns about youth. These data showing transitions from EC to smoking in nearly a quarter of exclusive adult EC users with no histories of established smoking should widen this debate to consider adult gateway effects too

Predictors of Cigarette Smoking Progression Among a School-Based Sample of Adolescents in Irbid, Jordan: A Longitudinal Study (2008–2011)

INTRODUCTION: Little evidence regarding longitudinal predictors of cigarette smoking progression is available from developing countries. This study aimed to identify gender-specific individual and social predictors of cigarette smoking progression among a school-based sample of adolescents in Irbid, Jordan. METHODS: A total of 1781 seventh graders (participation rate 95%) were enrolled and completed an annual self-administered questionnaire from 2008 through 2011. Students who reported ever-smoking a cigarette at baseline or in the subsequent follow-up but not being heavy daily smokers (\u3e10 cigarettes per day) were eligible for this analysis (N = 669). Grouped-time survival analyses were used to identify predictors of cigarette smoking progression in boys and girls. RESULTS: Among the study sample, 38.3% of students increased the frequency and /or amount of cigarette smoking during the 3 years of follow-up. Among individual factors, the urge to smoke in the morning predicted smoking progression for boys and girls. The independent predictors of cigarette smoking progression were friends\u27 smoking and attending public schools in boys, and siblings\u27 smoking in girls. Discussing the dangers of smoking with family members was protective for girls. CONCLUSION: Boys and girls progressed similarly in cigarette smoking once they initiated the habit. Progression among girls was solely family-related, while it was peer-related for boys

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population\u3e2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18?65æyears, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women?s health

Waterpipe a gateway to cigarette smoking initiation among adolescents in Irbid, Jordan: a longitudinal study

SETTING: According to anecdotal evidence, waterpipe smoking may lead to the initiation of cigarette smoking among young people. This hypothesis is yet to be examined using an appropriate study design and a theoretical model for behavioral change. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of cigarette smoking initiation among waterpipe-only smokers and never smokers in a school-based sample of adolescents from Irbid, Jordan. METHODS: A total of 1454 cigarette-naïve participants were drawn from a longitudinal study on smoking behavior conducted in Irbid among 1781 seventh graders who were enrolled at baseline (2008) and completed the study questionnaire on smoking behavior annually until 2011. Grouped time-survival analysis was used to compare the risk of subsequent initiation of cigarette smoking between waterpipe smokers (n = 298) and never smokers (n = 1156) using adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: Risk of initiation of cigarette smoking among waterpipe smokers was significantly higher than among never smokers after adjusting for potential confounders (aHR 1.67, 95%CI 1.46–1.92). The association between waterpipe and cigarette smoking initiation was dose-dependent. The risk of initiating cigarette smoking increased with increase in the frequency of waterpipe smoking (P for linear trend < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Waterpipe smoking led to the initiation of cigarette smoking among this cohort of Jordanian adolescents; the effect was dose-dependent

Predictors of waterpipe smoking progression among youth in Irbid, Jordan: A Longitudinal Study (2008-2011)

BACKGROUND: The predictors of waterpipe smoking progression are yet to be examined using a longitudinal study that is guided by a theoretical model of behavioral change. This study identifies the gender-specific predictors of waterpipe smoking progression among adolescents in Irbid, Jordan. METHODS: This study uses data from a school longitudinal study of smoking behavior in Irbid, Jordan. A random sample of 19 schools was selected by probability proportionate to size. A total of 1781 seventh graders were enrolled at baseline, and completed a questionnaire annually from 2008 through 2011. Students who reported ever smoking waterpipe (N = 864) at any time point were assessed for progression (escalation in the frequency of waterpipe smoking) in the subsequent follow-up. Grouped-time survival analysis was used to identify the risk of progression. RESULTS: During the three years of follow-up, 29.6% of students progressed in waterpipe smoking. Predictors of waterpipe smoking progression were higher mother's education, enrollment in public school, frequent physical activity, and low refusal self-efficacy among boys, having ever smoked cigarettes, and having friends and siblings who smoke waterpipe among girls. Awareness of harms of waterpipe was protective among boys and seeing warning labels on the tobacco packs was protective among girls. CONCLUSIONS: Even at this early stage, about a third of waterpipe smokers progressed in their habit during the 3 year follow up. Factors predicting progression of use differed by gender, which calls for gender-specific approaches to waterpipe interventions among Jordanian youth

Self-rated health and its determinants among adults in Syria: a model from the Middle East

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-rated health (SRH) has been widely used to research health inequalities in developed western societies, but few such studies are available in developing countries. Similar to many Arab societies, little research has been conducted in Syria on the health status of its citizens, particularly in regards to SRH. This Study aims to investigate and compare determinants of SRH in adult men and women in Aleppo, Syria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of adults 18 to 65 years old residing in Aleppo (2,500,000 inhabitants), Syria was carried out in 2004, involving 2038 household representatives (45.2% men, age range 18–65 years, response rate 86%). SRH was categorized as excellent, normal, and poor. Odds ratios for poor and normal SRH, compared to excellent, were calculated separately for men and women using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Women were more likely than men to describe their health as poor. Men and women were more likely to report poor SRH if they were older, reported two or more chronic health problems, or had high self perceived functional disability. Important gender-specific determinants of poor SRH included being married, low socioeconomic status, and not having social support for women, and smoking, low physical activity for men.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Women were more likely than men to describe their health as poor. The link with age and pre-existing chronic conditions seems universal and likely reflects natural aging process. Determinants of SRH differed between men and women, possibly highlighting underlying cultural norms and gender roles in the society. Understanding the local context of SRH and its determinants within the prevailing culture will be important to tailor intervention programs aimed at improving health of the Syrian and similar Arab societies.</p

Comparison of patterns of use, beliefs, and attitudes related to waterpipe between beginning and established smokers

BACKGROUND: To compare patterns of use, beliefs, and attitudes related to waterpipe smoking between university students (beginning smokers) and café customers (established smokers) in Aleppo Syria, in order to explore the evolution of this smoking method. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted among representative samples of university students (total 587, 48.4% men, mean age 22 years), and waterpipe users among cafe' customers (total 268, 60% men, mean age 30 years) in Aleppo, Syria. We used interviewer-administered questionnaire inquiring about pattern of waterpipe smoking (initiation, frequency), situational characteristics of use (partner, place, sharing), beliefs related to waterpipe smoking (harmful/addictive properties of waterpipe), attitudes related to waterpipe smoking (confidence in quitting, will to quit, motivation for quitting, past year quit attempt), and cigarette smoking. RESULTS: Daily and regular patterns of smoking become more prevalent with increased duration of smoking, but intermittent smoking remains the predominant pattern of waterpipe use. Women seem to be drawn later to the habit, which seem to escape the usual taboo against women's cigarette smoking. Patterns and context of waterpipe use tend to change with progress of the practice affecting frequency, setting, and sharing of waterpipe. Unlike beginners, established waterpipe smokers seem more smoking-method oriented, more hooked on the habit, less willing to quit, and less likely to foresee challenges to quitting. CONCLUSION: Use patterns and attitudes related to waterpipe smoking evolve to accommodate the change in dependence and life circumstances of the smoker. Most of use features, beliefs, attitudes, as well as time-course seem unique to this smoking method requiring novel approach to intervention