Illegal migration and strategic challenges: A case study of undocumented migration from Bangladesh to India

Generally people move either legally or illegally due to socioeconomic and environmental reasons like poverty, unemployment and climate change or in search of better opportunities like for work and education, apart from for the reasons of reunification with family members, or the fear of persecution by other ethnic and political groups. In India as per the census 2001 data the total number of migrants is 314 million. Out of these, migrants from Bangladesh are around 10-20 million, who are mostly undocumented and crossed the border illegally. Though the migration brings in positive contribution, but the illegal ones pose serious challenges to the receiving State. The paper focuses on illegal immigration from Bangladesh to India and its implications

NIAS Strategic Forecast 05 / Myanmar 2016: What next for the NLD?

Myanmar has witnessed significant political and socioeconomic changes during the last five years. Civilian lead-ers have emerged in a military dominated polity where policy decisions are made through the Parliament. With a GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent and an estimated $74 billion in 2015, Myanmar is one of the rising econo-mies today compared to being a least developed country few years ago. The daily life of the average citizen in Myanmar is better, aided by increasing investment, employment opportunities and new found personal free-dom. While there is widespread recognition within and internationally that the military (Tatmadaw) is the main driver of the current transition, yet there are big questions: Will the military permit triumphant National League for Democracy (NLD) to govern the country peacefully? Will the meaningful changes initiated in 2011 continue? Will Myanmar under NLD move towards a more inclusive and stable development progress? Will peace be finally achieved between the centre —Bamar dominated government—and the periphery—ethnic minorities, which control parts of the states in the border areas? Will NLD succeed in addressing the thorny issue of the religious minority Rohingyas? How will the relations between Myanmar and China develop under NLD re-gime

Are the Indian Fishermen 'Carefully Careless'?: Fishing Conflicts in the Palk Bay (NIAS Wednesday Discussion Report)

Dr M Mayilvaganan is an Assistant Professor at the ISSSP, NIAS. He works on strategic and security issues of India's neighbourhood, Indian Ocean, China, Japan, US, Terrorism, and Climate Change. Following is an abstract of the discussions

Terrorism, Communal Politics and Ethnic Demography: Is there a Causal Connection? - Empirical Analysis of Terrorist Incidents in Maharashtra (NIAS/CSS/ISSSP/U/RR/08/2020)

Is there a causal link between ethnic demography, communal violence, local politics and terrorism? What factors might prompt a terrorist to choose a target place? Why the states like Maharashtra and Mumbai in particular witnessed more terrorist attacks in India? It is a question which arises on observing the trend and pattern of terrorism in India, particularly when one state, say Maharashtra witnessed more number of terrorist attacks than other states. While the underlying reason for Mumbai—and generally Maharashtra, being targeted due to its well established economic profile could be true, it would also be worthwhile to examine other factors to gain more clarity on the subject

'Troubled waters': Maritime issues in Palk Strait, Indian ocean

India had settled maritime boundary issues with all its neighbours including Sri Lanka. In reality, however, India still has issues to be addressed in Palk Strait with Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean. In spite of the existence of two maritime agreements of 1974 and 1976, there are certain irritants between the two neighbours. The main issue is the status of Kachchativu, a small barren island in the Palk Bay area and the fishing around it. The contest for marine resources in and around Kachchativu by Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen has not only heighten the disagreement between stakeholders but also led to demands to reclaim the island by Indian fishermen and Dravidian political parties in Tamil Nadu. The paper examines the historical debates between two countries on the legal claim of the barren island, its settlement and its implication on India's domestic politics, and the challenges faced at the moment. Particularly, the recurring attack on Indian fishermen in Palk Straits by the Sri Lankan Navy then and now has become a contentious issue between two neighbours, which require comprehensive analysis. Finally, the paper highlights the availability of reasonable options before two countries in strengthening of cooperation and amicable settlement of fishery row

COVID-19 Pandemic in the Indo-Pacific: How the Countries are Dealing Amidst Changing Geopolitics (NIAS/CSS/ISSSP/U/RR/15/2020)

The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic is defining global response to the greatest challenge we faced since World War Two. It has significant bearing on social, economic, political and security of the nations as well global. People have lost jobs and income, with no way of knowing when normality will return, migrants within the country and the expatriates are forced to return to the home. The nations, those are heavily dependent on consumer economy, manufacturing, and tourism, etc. have nearly insolvent. Every country prepares to reopen and hoping to recover as much as possible. But there are multiple challenges. Apart from containing the spread of the virus and treating infected patients, there are related economy, political and security issues, and questions about the future regional and world order. The report analysis how the countries in the region are coping up with the pandemic amidst the changing geopolitics

DPRK'S Nuclear Conundrum and the U.S.-North Korea Negotiations: A Never-Ending Saga

The challenge of nuclear proliferation in the Korean peninsula since 2006 with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) first nuclear test had not only drawn the global attention but created a perilous situation on the peninsula. Further the Hwasong-15 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) of DPRK that was tested in February2023and thereafter hasheightenedtensionsbetween WashingtonandJapanwithPyongyang. The United States’(U.S.) diplomatic efforts to engage North Korea through bilateral means in recent times resulted inthefirst historic summit inSingapore (2018) and later in Vietnam(2019). Though these are undoubtedly positive developments, however, in the absence of any tangible deal after the Hanoi summit, the big question remainswillthe U.S.and North Korea end their mutual misperceptions, and worktowards a viable solution.At the moment, the very fact that since 2019, the U.S. and North Korea have had no official dialoguesis evident that misperceptions and distrust continues and finding any sort of solution is going to be a very difficult task now that North Korea has closed its borderssince the COVID-19 pandemic started. The more isolated Pyongyang is, the morebelligerent it willbecome in testing its missile

Predicting Academic Performance: A Systematic Literature Review

The ability to predict student performance in a course or program creates opportunities to improve educational outcomes. With effective performance prediction approaches, instructors can allocate resources and instruction more accurately. Research in this area seeks to identify features that can be used to make predictions, to identify algorithms that can improve predictions, and to quantify aspects of student performance. Moreover, research in predicting student performance seeks to determine interrelated features and to identify the underlying reasons why certain features work better than others. This working group report presents a systematic literature review of work in the area of predicting student performance. Our analysis shows a clearly increasing amount of research in this area, as well as an increasing variety of techniques used. At the same time, the review uncovered a number of issues with research quality that drives a need for the community to provide more detailed reporting of methods and results and to increase efforts to validate and replicate work.Peer reviewe