On the Perils of Stabilizing Prices When Agents are Learning.

We show that price level stabilization is not optimal in an economy where agents have incomplete knowledge about the policy implemented and try to learn it. A systematically more accommodative policy than what agents expect generates short term gains without triggering an abrupt loss of con- fidence, since agents update expectations sluggishly. In the long run agents learn the policy implemented, and the economy converges to a rational expectations equilibrium in which policy does not stabilize prices, economic volatility is high, and agents suffer the corresponding welfare losses. However, these losses are outweighed by short term gains from the learning phase

Diagnostic accuracy of cyst fluid amphiregulin in pancreatic cysts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate tests to diagnose adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia among mucinous pancreatic cysts are clinically needed. This study evaluated the diagnostic utility of amphiregulin (AREG) as a pancreatic cyst fluid biomarker to differentiate non-mucinous, benign mucinous, and malignant mucinous cysts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A single-center retrospective study to evaluate AREG levels in pancreatic cyst fluid by ELISA from 33 patients with a histological gold standard was performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the cyst fluid samples, the median (IQR) AREG levels for non-mucinous (n = 6), benign mucinous (n = 15), and cancerous cysts (n = 15) were 85 pg/ml (47-168), 63 pg/ml (30-847), and 986 pg/ml (417-3160), respectively. A significant difference between benign mucinous and malignant mucinous cysts was observed (<it>p </it>= 0.025). AREG levels greater than 300 pg/ml possessed a diagnostic accuracy for cancer or high-grade dysplasia of 78% (sensitivity 83%, specificity 73%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cyst fluid AREG levels are significantly higher in cancerous and high-grade dysplastic cysts compared to benign mucinous cysts. Thus AREG exhibits potential clinical utility in the evaluation of pancreatic cysts.</p

Effects of tranexamic acid on death, disability, vascular occlusive events and other morbidities in patients with acute traumatic brain injury (CRASH-3): a randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and decreases mortality in patients with traumatic extracranial bleeding. Intracranial bleeding is common after traumatic brain injury (TBI) and can cause brain herniation and death. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with TBI. Methods This randomised, placebo-controlled trial was done in 175 hospitals in 29 countries. Adults with TBI who were within 3 h of injury, had a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 12 or lower or any intracranial bleeding on CT scan, and no major extracranial bleeding were eligible. The time window for eligibility was originally 8 h but in 2016 the protocol was changed to limit recruitment to patients within 3 h of injury. This change was made blind to the trial data, in response to external evidence suggesting that delayed treatment is unlikely to be effective. We randomly assigned (1:1) patients to receive tranexamic acid (loading dose 1 g over 10 min then infusion of 1 g over 8 h) or matching placebo. Patients were assigned by selecting a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was head injury-related death in hospital within 28 days of injury in patients treated within 3 h of injury. We prespecified a sensitivity analysis that excluded patients with a GCS score of 3 and those with bilateral unreactive pupils at baseline. All analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial was registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN15088122), ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01402882), EudraCT (2011-003669-14), and the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (PACTR20121000441277). Results Between July 20, 2012, and Jan 31, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 737 patients with TBI to receive tranexamic acid (6406 [50·3%] or placebo [6331 [49·7%], of whom 9202 (72·2%) patients were treated within 3 h of injury. Among patients treated within 3 h of injury, the risk of head injury-related death was 18·5% in the tranexamic acid group versus 19·8% in the placebo group (855 vs 892 events; risk ratio [RR] 0·94 [95% CI 0·86-1·02]). In the prespecified sensitivity analysis that excluded patients with a GCS score of 3 or bilateral unreactive pupils at baseline, the risk of head injury-related death was 12·5% in the tranexamic acid group versus 14·0% in the placebo group (485 vs 525 events; RR 0·89 [95% CI 0·80-1·00]). The risk of head injury-related death reduced with tranexamic acid in patients with mild-to-moderate head injury (RR 0·78 [95% CI 0·64-0·95]) but not in patients with severe head injury (0·99 [95% CI 0·91-1·07]; p value for heterogeneity 0·030). Early treatment was more effective than was later treatment in patients with mild and moderate head injury (p=0·005) but time to treatment had no obvious effect in patients with severe head injury (p=0·73). The risk of vascular occlusive events was similar in the tranexamic acid and placebo groups (RR 0·98 (0·74-1·28). The risk of seizures was also similar between groups (1·09 [95% CI 0·90-1·33]). Interpretation Our results show that tranexamic acid is safe in patients with TBI and that treatment within 3 h of injury reduces head injury-related death. Patients should be treated as soon as possible after injury. Funding National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment, JP Moulton Charitable Trust, Department of Health and Social Care, Department for International Development, Global Challenges Research Fund, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome Trust (Joint Global Health Trials scheme)

Performance and feasibility of reactive surveillance and response strategies for malaria elimination in Vietnam: a mixed-methods study

Abstract Background To enhance malaria elimination, Vietnam adopted a Reactive Surveillance and Response (RASR) Strategy in which malaria case notification and investigation must be completed within 2 days followed by a focus investigation within 7 days. The nationwide performance of Vietnam’s RASR strategy has yet to be evaluated. This study aims to evaluate the performance and feasibility of RASR in Vietnam, thereby providing recommendations for improved RASR. Methods To assess malaria RASR in Vietnam, a mixed-methods study of (1) secondary data analysis of nationwide malaria case-based dataset from 2017 to 2021; (2) a quantitative survey, and (3) qualitative in-depth interviews and focus group discussions administered to central, provincial and district level stakeholders/staff and to the commune and community level front line health services providers was conducted. Results In Vietnam, there are guidelines and procedures for implementation of each step of RASR. The completeness of case notification on the reported monthly aggregated data was very high in both the paper-based (12,463/12,498, 99.7% in 2017–2020) and electronic reporting systems (467/467, 100% in 2021 when electronic reporting was introduced); however, there were delays in notification while using the paper-based system (timely notification—7,978/12,498, 63.8%). In 2021, the completeness (453/467, 97.0%) and timeliness (371/467, 79.4%) of case investigation were found to be high. Reactive case detection was the major focus investigation response, with fever screening achievement of 88.6% (11,481 / 12,965) and 88.5% (11,471 / 12,965) among index case and neighbouring household members, respectively. Conclusions Overall, there was policy commitment for implementation of RASR in Vietnam. The completeness and timeliness of case notification and case investigation were high and improved after the introduction of the electronic reporting system. More evidence is required for reactive case detection in defining the screening area or population