Importance sampling the union of rare events with an application to power systems analysis

We consider importance sampling to estimate the probability $\mu$ of a union of $J$ rare events $H_j$ defined by a random variable $\boldsymbol{x}$. The sampler we study has been used in spatial statistics, genomics and combinatorics going back at least to Karp and Luby (1983). It works by sampling one event at random, then sampling $\boldsymbol{x}$ conditionally on that event happening and it constructs an unbiased estimate of $\mu$ by multiplying an inverse moment of the number of occuring events by the union bound. We prove some variance bounds for this sampler. For a sample size of $n$, it has a variance no larger than $\mu(\bar\mu-\mu)/n$ where $\bar\mu$ is the union bound. It also has a coefficient of variation no larger than $\sqrt{(J+J^{-1}-2)/(4n)}$ regardless of the overlap pattern among the $J$ events. Our motivating problem comes from power system reliability, where the phase differences between connected nodes have a joint Gaussian distribution and the $J$ rare events arise from unacceptably large phase differences. In the grid reliability problems even some events defined by $5772$ constraints in $326$ dimensions, with probability below $10^{-22}$, are estimated with a coefficient of variation of about $0.0024$ with only $n=10{,}000$ sample values

Multilevel Analysis of Oscillation Motions in Active Regions of the Sun

We present a new method that combines the results of an oscillation study made in optical and radio observations. The optical spectral measurements in photospheric and chromospheric lines of the line-of-sight velocity were carried out at the Sayan Solar Observatory. The radio maps of the Sun were obtained with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 1.76 cm. Radio sources associated with the sunspots were analyzed to study the oscillation processes in the chromosphere-corona transition region in the layer with magnetic field B=2000 G. A high level of instability of the oscillations in the optical and radio data was found. We used a wavelet analysis for the spectra. The best similarities of the spectra of oscillations obtained by the two methods were detected in the three-minute oscillations inside the sunspot umbra for the dates when the active regions were situated near the center of the solar disk. A comparison of the wavelet spectra for optical and radio observations showed a time delay of about 50 seconds of the radio results with respect to optical ones. This implies a MHD wave traveling upward inside the umbral magnetic tube of the sunspot. Besides three-minute and five-minute ones, oscillations with longer periods (8 and 15 minutes) were detected in optical and radio records.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted to Solar Physics (18 Jan 2011). The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Low-field diffusion magneto-thermopower of a high mobility two-dimensional electron gas

The low magnetic field diffusion thermopower of a high mobility GaAs-heterostructure has been measured directly on an electrostatically defined micron-scale Hall-bar structure at low temperature (T = 1.6 K) in the low magnetic field regime (B < 1.2 T) where delocalized quantum Hall states do not influence the measurements. The sample design allowed the determination of the field dependence of the thermopower both parallel and perpendicular to the temperature gradient, denoted respectively by Sxx (longitudinal thermopower) and Syx (Nernst-Ettinghausen coefficient). The experimental data show clear oscillations in Sxx and Syx due to the formation of Landau levels for 0.3 T < B < 1.2 T and reveal that Syx is approximately 120 times larger than Sxx at a magnetic field of 1 T, which agrees well with the theoretical prediction.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Socio-Anthropological Problems of Education in the Consumer Society and Information Technologies

This paper aims to show the inconsistency of the process and results of informatization for people, culture, and society, where consumption becomes its characteristic feature. We note that with the wide spread of education in the modern world, which to a certain extent became possible due to the development of information technologies, its depth disappears, and it becomes less qualitative. The research is based on the dialectical method, and it allows us to identify both positive and negative aspects of the introduction of information technology in the educational process. The system and structural-functional methods proved to be useful for a comprehensive analysis of education in the context of social changes, establishing a number of relationships and transforming the cognitive abilities of a person as a subject of education. The research novelty lies in the identification of changes that occur in the subjects of the educational process under the influence of the introduction of information technologies. Such socio-anthropological changes became an important philosophical and scientific problem that requires further interdisciplinary research

How much laser power can propagate through fusion plasma?

Propagation of intense laser beams is crucial for inertial confinement fusion, which requires precise beam control to achieve the compression and heating necessary to ignite the fusion reaction. The National Ignition Facility (NIF), where fusion will be attempted, is now under construction. Control of intense beam propagation may be ruined by laser beam self-focusing. We have identified the maximum laser beam power that can propagate through fusion plasma without significant self-focusing and have found excellent agreement with recent experimental data, and suggest a way to increase that maximum by appropriate choice of plasma composition with implication for NIF designs. Our theory also leads to the prediction of anti-correlation between beam spray and backscatter and suggests the indirect control of backscatter through manipulation of plasma ionization state or acoustic damping.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusio

Downregulation of 15-hydroxyprostaglandin dehydrogenase during acquired tamoxifen resistance and association with poor prognosis in ERα-positive breast cancer

Aim: Tamoxifen (TAM) resistance remains a clinical issue in breast cancer. The authors previously reported that 15-hydroxyprostaglandin dehydrogenase (HPGD) was significantly downregulated in tamoxifen-resistant (TAMr) breast cancer cell lines. Here, the authors investigated the relationship between HPGD expression, TAM resistance and prediction of outcome in breast cancer. Methods: HPGD overexpression and silencing studies were performed in isogenic TAMr and parental human breast cancer cell lines to establish the impact of HPGD expression on TAM resistance. HPGD expression and clinical outcome relationships were explored using immunohistochemistry and in silico analysis. Results: Restoration of HPGD expression and activity sensitised TAMr MCF-7 cells to TAM and 17β-oestradiol, whilst HPGD silencing in parental MCF-7 cells reduced TAM sensitivity. TAMr cells released more prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) than controls, which was reduced in TAMr cells stably transfected with HPGD. Exogenous PGE2 signalled through the EP4 receptor to reduce breast cancer cell sensitivity to TAM. Decreased HPGD expression was associated with decreased overall survival in ERα-positive breast cancer patients. Conclusions: HPGD downregulation in breast cancer is associated with reduced response to TAM therapy via PGE2-EP4 signalling and decreases patient survival. The data offer a potential target to develop combination therapies that may overcome acquired tamoxifen resistance

A practical attack on the fixed RC4 in the wep mode

Abstract. In this paper we revisit a known but ignored weakness of the RC4 keystream generator, where secret state info leaks to the generated keystream, and show that this leakage, also known as Jenkins’ correlation or the RC4 glimpse, can be used to attack RC4 in several modes. Our main result is a practical key recovery attack on RC4 when an IV modifier is concatenated to the beginning of a secret root key to generate a session key. As opposed to the WEP attack from [FMS01] the new attack is applicable even in the case where the first 256 bytes of the keystream are thrown and its complexity grows only linearly with the length of the key. In an exemplifying parameter setting the attack recoversa16-bytekeyin2 48 steps using 2 17 short keystreams generated from different chosen IVs. A second attacked mode is when the IV succeeds the secret root key. We mount a key recovery attack that recovers the secret root key by analyzing a single word from 2 22 keystreams generated from different IVs, improving the attack from [FMS01] on this mode. A third result is an attack on RC4 that is applicable when the attacker can inject faults to the execution of RC4. The attacker derives the internal state and the secret key by analyzing 2 14 faulted keystreams generated from this key