Highly comparative time-series analysis: The empirical structure of time series and their methods

The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording, and analyzing the dynamics of different processes, an extensive organization of scientific time-series data and analysis methods has never been performed. Addressing this, annotated collections of over 35 000 real-world and model-generated time series and over 9000 time-series analysis algorithms are analyzed in this work. We introduce reduced representations of both time series, in terms of their properties measured by diverse scientific methods, and of time-series analysis methods, in terms of their behaviour on empirical time series, and use them to organize these interdisciplinary resources. This new approach to comparing across diverse scientific data and methods allows us to organize time-series datasets automatically according to their properties, retrieve alternatives to particular analysis methods developed in other scientific disciplines, and automate the selection of useful methods for time-series classification and regression tasks. The broad scientific utility of these tools is demonstrated on datasets of electroencephalograms, self-affine time series, heart beat intervals, speech signals, and others, in each case contributing novel analysis techniques to the existing literature. Highly comparative techniques that compare across an interdisciplinary literature can thus be used to guide more focused research in time-series analysis for applications across the scientific disciplines

Information scraps: how and why information eludes our personal information management tools

In this paper we describe information scraps -- a class of personal information whose content is scribbled on Post-it notes, scrawled on corners of random sheets of paper, buried inside the bodies of e-mail messages sent to ourselves, or typed haphazardly into text files. Information scraps hold our great ideas, sketches, notes, reminders, driving directions, and even our poetry. We define information scraps to be the body of personal information that is held outside of its natural or We have much still to learn about these loose forms of information capture. Why are they so often held outside of our traditional PIM locations and instead on Post-its or in text files? Why must we sometimes go around our traditional PIM applications to hold on to our scraps, such as by e-mailing ourselves? What are information scraps' role in the larger space of personal information management, and what do they uniquely offer that we find so appealing? If these unorganized bits truly indicate the failure of our PIM tools, how might we begin to build better tools? We have pursued these questions by undertaking a study of 27 knowledge workers. In our findings we describe information scraps from several angles: their content, their location, and the factors that lead to their use, which we identify as ease of capture, flexibility of content and organization, and avilability at the time of need. We also consider the personal emotive responses around scrap management. We present a set of design considerations that we have derived from the analysis of our study results. We present our work on an application platform, jourknow, to test some of these design and usability findings

Shrub establishment favoured and grass dominance reduced in acid heath grassland systems cleared of invasive Rhododendron ponticum

Abstract Rhododendron ponticum L. is a damaging invasive alien species in Britain, favouring the moist, temperate climate, and the acidic soils of upland areas. It outshades other species and is thought to create a soil environment of low pH that may be higher in phytotoxic phenolic compounds. We investigated native vegetation restoration and R. ponticum regeneration post-clearance using heathland sites within Snowdonia National Park, Wales; one site had existing R. ponticum stands and three were restoring post-clearance. Each site also had an adjacent, uninvaded control for comparison. We assessed whether native vegetation restoration was influenced post-invasion by soil chemical properties, including pH and phytotoxic compounds, using Lactuca sativa L. (lettuce) bioassays supported by liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MSn). Cleared sites had higher shrub and bare ground cover, and lower grass and herbaceous species cover relative to adjacent uninvaded control sites; regenerating R. ponticum was also observed on all cleared sites. No phenolic compounds associated with R. ponticum were identified in any soil water leachates, and soil leachates from cleared sites had no inhibitory effect in L. sativa germination assays. We therefore conclude that reportedly phytotoxic compounds do not influence restoration post R. ponticum clearance. Soil pH however was lower beneath R. ponticum and on cleared sites, relative to adjacent uninvaded sites. The lower soil pH post-clearance may have favoured shrub species, which are typically tolerant of acidic soils. The higher shrub cover on cleared sites may have greater ecological value than unaffected grass dominated sites, particularly given the recent decline in such valuable heathland habitats. The presence of regenerating R. ponticum on all cleared sites however highlights the critical importance of monitoring and re-treating sites post initial clearance

A New Spin on Galactic Dust

We present a new puzzle involving Galactic microwave emission and attempt to resolve it. On one hand, a cross-correlation analysis of the WHAM H-alpha map with the Tenerife 10 and 15 GHz maps shows that the well-known DIRBE correlated microwave emission cannot be dominated by free-free emission. On the other hand, recent high resolution observations in the 8-10 GHz range with the Green Bank 140 ft telescope by Finkbeiner et al. failed to find the corresponding 8 sigma signal that would be expected in the simplest spinning dust models. So what physical mechanism is causing this ubiquitous dust-correlated emission? We argue for a model predicting that spinning dust is the culprit after all, but that the corresponding small grains are well correlated with the larger grains seen at 100 micron only on large angular scales. In support of this grain segregation model, we find the best spinning dust template to involve higher frequency maps in the range 12-60 micron, where emission from transiently heated small grains is important. Upcoming CMB experiments such as ground-based interferometers, MAP and Planck LFI with high resolution at low frequencies should allow a definitive test of this model.Comment: Minor revisions to match accepted ApJ version. 6 pages, 4 figs. Color figures and more foreground information at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~angelica/foreground.html#spin or from [email protected]

Genetic factors predict hybrid formation in the British flora

Natural hybridization can have a profound evolutionary impact, with consequences ranging from the extinction of rare taxa to the origin of new species. Natural hybridization is particularly common in plants; however, our understanding of the general factors that promote or prevent hybridization is hampered by the highly variable outcomes in different lineages. Here, we quantify the influence of different predictors on hybrid formation across species from an entire flora. We combine estimates of hybridization with ecological attributes and a new species-level phylogeny for over 1,100 UK flowering plant species. Our results show that genetic factors, particularly parental genetic distance, as well as phylogenetic position and ploidy, are key determinants of hybrid formation, whereas many other factors such as range overlap and genus size explain much less variation in hybrid formation. Overall, intrinsic genetic factors shape the evolutionary and ecological consequences of natural hybridization across species in a flora

Is diabetic retinopathy screening worthwhile among people first diagnosed with diabetes at older ages? A cohort study of Norfolk diabetic retinopathy screening programme

Aims: England's Diabetic Eye Disease Screening Programme offers screening to every resident over age 12 with diabetes, starting as soon as possible after diagnosis and repeated annually. People first diagnosed with diabetes at older ages have shorter life expectancy and therefore may be less likely to benefit from screening and treatment. To inform decisions about whether diabetic eye screening policy should be stratified by age, we investigated the probability of receiving treatment according to age at first screening episode. Methods: This was a cohort study of participants in the Norfolk Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Programme from 2006 to 2017, with individuals' programme data linked to hospital treatment and death data recorded up to 2021. We estimated and compared the probability, annual incidence and screening costs of receiving retinal laser photocoagulation or intravitreal injection and of death, in age groups defined by age at first screening episode. Results: The probability of death increased with increasing age at diagnosis, while the probability of receiving either treatment decreased with increasing age. The estimated cost of screening per person who received either or both treatments was £18,608 among all participants, increasing with age up to £21,721 in those aged 70–79 and £26,214 in those aged 80–89. Conclusions: Diabetic retinopathy screening is less effective and less cost-effective with increasing age at diagnosis of diabetes, because of the increasing probability of death before participants develop sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and can benefit from treatment. Upper age limits on entry into screening programmes or risk stratification in older age groups may, therefore, be justifiable

The Mathematical Universe

I explore physics implications of the External Reality Hypothesis (ERH) that there exists an external physical reality completely independent of us humans. I argue that with a sufficiently broad definition of mathematics, it implies the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis (MUH) that our physical world is an abstract mathematical structure. I discuss various implications of the ERH and MUH, ranging from standard physics topics like symmetries, irreducible representations, units, free parameters, randomness and initial conditions to broader issues like consciousness, parallel universes and Godel incompleteness. I hypothesize that only computable and decidable (in Godel's sense) structures exist, which alleviates the cosmological measure problem and help explain why our physical laws appear so simple. I also comment on the intimate relation between mathematical structures, computations, simulations and physical systems.Comment: Replaced to match accepted Found. Phys. version, 31 pages, 5 figs; more details at http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/toe.htm