Machine Learning in Falls Prediction; A cognition-based predictor of falls for the acute neurological in-patient population

Background Information: Falls are associated with high direct and indirect costs, and significant morbidity and mortality for patients. Pathological falls are usually a result of a compromised motor system, and/or cognition. Very little research has been conducted on predicting falls based on this premise. Aims: To demonstrate that cognitive and motor tests can be used to create a robust predictive tool for falls. Methods: Three tests of attention and executive function (Stroop, Trail Making, and Semantic Fluency), a measure of physical function (Walk-12), a series of questions (concerning recent falls, surgery and physical function) and demographic information were collected from a cohort of 323 patients at a tertiary neurological center. The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay (n = 54). Data-driven, predictive modelling was employed to identify the statistical modelling strategies which are most accurate in predicting falls, and which yield the most parsimonious models of clinical relevance. Results: The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of any others variables, to the results of the Trail test did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < .001). The best statistical strategy for predicting falls was the random forest (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < .001), based solely on results of the Trail test. Tuning of the model results in the following optimized values: 68% (+- 7.7) sensitivity, 90% (+- 2.3) specificity, with a positive predictive value of 60%, when the relevant data is available. Conclusion: Predictive modelling has identified a simple yet powerful machine learning prediction strategy based on a single clinical test, the Trail test. Predictive evaluation shows this strategy to be robust, suggesting predictive modelling and machine learning as the standard for future predictive tools

The Trail Making test : a study of its ability to predict falls in the acute neurological in-patient population

Objective: To determine whether tests of cognitive function and patient-reported outcome measures of motor function can be used to create a machine learning-based predictive tool for falls. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary neurological and neurosurgical center. Subjects: In all, 337 in-patients receiving neurosurgical, neurological, or neurorehabilitation-based care. Main Measures: Binary (Y/N) for falling during the in-patient episode, the Trail Making Test (a measure of attention and executive function) and the Walk-12 (a patient-reported measure of physical function). Results: The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay (n = 54). The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of other variables, did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001). Classical linear statistical modeling methods were then compared with more recent machine learning based strategies, for example, random forests, neural networks, support vector machines. The random forest was the best modeling strategy when utilizing just the Trail Making Test data (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001) with 68% (± 7.7) sensitivity, and 90% (± 2.3) specificity. Conclusion: This study identifies a simple yet powerful machine learning (Random Forest) based predictive model for an in-patient neurological population, utilizing a single neuropsychological test of cognitive function, the Trail Making test

Multiple sclerosis lesions and atrophy in the spinal cord: Distribution across vertebral levels and correlation with disability

Background: The vast majority of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on multiple sclerosis (MS) covered the spinal cord (SC), if at all, incompletely.Objective: To assess SC involvement in MS, as detectable by whole SC MRI, with regard to distribution across vertebral levels and relation to clinical phenotypes and disability.Methods: We investigated SC MRI with sagittal and axial coverage. Analyzed were brain and SC MRI scans of 17 healthy controls (HC) and of 370 patients with either clinically isolated syndrome (CIS, 27), relapsing remitting MS (RRMS, 303) or progressive MS (PMS, 40). Across vertebral levels, cross-sectional areas were semiautomatically segmented, and lesions manually delineated.Results: The frequency of SC lesions was highest at the level C3-4. The volume of SC lesions increased from CIS to RRMS, and from RRMS to PMS whereas lesion distribution across SC levels did not differ. SC atrophy was demonstrated in RRMS and, to a higher degree, in PMS;apart from an accentuation at the level C3-4, it was evenly distributed across SC levels. SC lesions and atrophy volume were not correlated with each other and were independently associated with disability.Conclusion: SC lesions and atrophy already exist at the stage of RRMS in the whole SC with an accentuation in the cervical enlargement;SC lesions and atrophy are more pronounced in the stage of PMS. Both contribute to the clinical picture but are largely independent

Gray matter atrophy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis is associated with white matter lesions in connecting fibers

Background: Lesions of brain white matter (WM) and atrophy of brain gray matter (GM) are well-established surrogate parameters in multiple sclerosis (MS), but it is unclear how closely these parameters relate to each other. Objective: To assess across the whole cerebrum whether GM atrophy can be explained by lesions in connecting WM tracts. Methods: GM images of 600 patients with relapsing-remitting MS (women = 68%;median age = 33.0 years, median expanded disability status scale score = 1.5) were converted to atrophy maps by data from a healthy control cohort. An atlas of WM tracts from the Human Connectome Project and individual lesion maps were merged to identify potentially disconnected GM regions, leading to individual disconnectome maps. Across the whole cerebrum, GM atrophy and potentially disconnected GM were tested for association both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Results: We found highly significant correlations between disconnection and atrophy across most of the cerebrum. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a close temporal relation of WM lesion formation and GM atrophy in connecting fibers. Conclusion: GM atrophy is associated with WM lesions in connecting fibers. Caution is warranted when interpreting group differences in GM atrophy exclusively as differences in early neurodegeneration independent of WM lesion formation

Automated segmentation of changes in FLAIR-hyperintense white matter lesions in multiple sclerosis on serial magnetic resonance imaging

Longitudinal analysis of white matter lesion changes on serial MRI has become an important parameter to study diseases with white-matter lesions. Here, we build on earlier work on cross-sectional lesion segmentation;we present a fully automatic pipeline for serial analysis of FLAIR-hyperintense white matter lesions. Our algorithm requires three-dimensional gradient echo T1- and FLAIR- weighted images at 3 Tesla as well as available cross-sectional lesion segmentations of both time points. Preprocessing steps include lesion filling and intrasubject registration. For segmentation of lesion changes, initial lesion maps of different time points are fused;herein changes in intensity are analyzed at the voxel level. Significance of lesion change is estimated by comparison with the difference distribution of FLAIR intensities within normal appearing white matter. The method is validated on MRI data of two time points from 40 subjects with multiple sclerosis derived from two different scanners (20 subjects per scanner). Manual segmentation of lesion increases served as gold standard. Across all lesion increases, voxel-wise Dice coefficient (0.7) as well as lesion-wise detection rate (0.8) and false-discovery rate (0.2) indicate good overall performance. Analysis of scans from a repositioning experiment in a single patient with multiple sclerosis did not yield a single false positive lesion. We also introduce the lesion change plot as a descriptive tool for the lesion change of individual patients with regard to both number and volume. An open source implementation of the algorithm is available at http//www.satastical-modeling.de/lst.html

Lesion location across diagnostic regions in multiple sclerosis

Background: Lesions in the periventricular, (juxta)cortical, and infratentorial region, as visible on brain MRI, are part of the diagnostic criteria for Multiple sclerosis (MS) whereas lesions in the subcortical region are currently only a marker of disease activity. It is unknown whether MS lesions follow individual spatial patterns or whether they occur in a random manner across diagnostic regions.Aim: First, to describe cross-sectionally the spatial lesion patterns in patients with MS. Second, to investigate the spatial association of new lesions and lesions at baseline across diagnostic regions. Methods: Experienced neuroradiologists analyzed brain MRI (3D, 3T) in a cohort of 330 early MS patients. Le-sions at baseline and new solitary lesions after two years were segmented (manually and by consensus) and classified as periventricular, (juxta)cortical, or infratentorial (diagnostic regions) or subcortical-with or without Gadolinium-enhancement. Gadolinium enhancement of lesions in the different regions was compared by Chi square test. New lesions in the four regions served as dependent variable in four zero-inflated Poisson models each with the six independent variables of lesions in the four regions at baseline, age and gender.Results: At baseline, lesions were most often observed in the subcortical region (mean 13.0 lesions/patient), while lesion volume was highest in the periventricular region (mean 2287 mu l/patient). Subcortical lesions were less likely to show gadolinium enhancement (3.1 %) than juxtacortical (4.3 %), periventricular (5.3 %) or infra-tentorial lesions (7.2 %). Age was inversely correlated with new periventricular, juxtacortical and subcortical lesions. New lesions in the periventricular, juxtacortical and infratentorial region showed a significant auto -correlative behavior being positively related to the number of lesions in the respective regions at baseline. New lesions in the subcortical region showed a different behavior with a positive association with baseline peri-ventricular lesions and a negative association with baseline infratentorial lesions.Conclusion: Across regions, new lesions do not occur randomly;instead, new lesions in the periventricular, juxtacortical and infratentorial diagnostic region are associated with that at baseline. Lesions in the subcortical regions are more closely related to periventricular lesions. Moreover, subcortical lesions substantially contribute to lesion burden in MS but are less likely to show gadolinium enhancement (than lesions in the diagnostic regions)

Retrospective cohort study to devise a treatment decision score predicting adverse 24-month radiological activity in early multiple sclerosis

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory disease affecting about 2.8 million people worldwide. Disease course after the most common diagnoses of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is highly variable and cannot be reliably predicted. This impairs early personalized treatment decisions. Objectives: The main objective of this study was to algorithmically support clinical decision-making regarding the options of early platform medication or no immediate treatment of patients with early RRMS and CIS. Design: Retrospective monocentric cohort study within the Data Integration for Future Medicine (DIFUTURE) Consortium. Methods: Multiple data sources of routine clinical, imaging and laboratory data derived from a large and deeply characterized cohort of patients with MS were integrated to conduct a retrospective study to create and internally validate a treatment decision score [Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Decision Score (MS-TDS)] through model-based random forests (RFs). The MS-TDS predicts the probability of no new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (cMRIs) between 6 and 24 months after the first cMRI. Results: Data from 65 predictors collected for 475 patients between 2008 and 2017 were included. No medication and platform medication were administered to 277 (58.3%) and 198 (41.7%) patients. The MS-TDS predicted individual outcomes with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.624. The respective RF prediction model provides patient-specific MS-TDS and probabilities of treatment success. The latter may increase by 5–20% for half of the patients if the treatment considered superior by the MS-TDS is used. Conclusion: Routine clinical data from multiple sources can be successfully integrated to build prediction models to support treatment decision-making. In this study, the resulting MS-TDS estimates individualized treatment success probabilities that can identify patients who benefit from early platform medication. External validation of the MS-TDS is required, and a prospective study is currently being conducted. In addition, the clinical relevance of the MS-TDS needs to be established

Association of retinal vessel pathology and brain atrophy in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BackgroundOptical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) allows non-invasive assessment of retinal vessel structures. Thinning and loss of retinal vessels is evident in eyes of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and might be associated with a proinflammatory disease phenotype and worse prognosis. We investigated whether changes of the retinal vasculature are linked to brain atrophy and disability in MS.Material and methodsThis study includes one longitudinal observational cohort (n=79) of patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Patients underwent annual assessment of the expanded disability status scale (EDSS), timed 25-foot walk, symbol digit modalities test (SDMT), retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT), OCTA, and brain MRI during a follow-up duration of at least 20 months. We investigated intra-individual associations between changes in the retinal architecture, vasculature, brain atrophy and disability. Eyes with a history of optic neuritis (ON) were excluded.ResultsWe included 79 patients with a median disease duration of 12 (interquartile range 2 - 49) months and a median EDSS of 1.0 (0 - 2.0). Longitudinal retinal axonal and ganglion cell loss were linked to grey matter atrophy, cortical atrophy, and volume loss of the putamen. We observed an association between vessel loss of the superficial vascular complex (SVC) and both grey and white matter atrophy. Both observations were independent of retinal ganglion cell loss. Moreover, patients with worsening of the EDSS and SDMT revealed a pronounced longitudinal rarefication of the SVC and the deep vascular complex.DiscussionON-independent narrowing of the retinal vasculature might be linked to brain atrophy and disability in MS. Our findings suggest that retinal OCTA might be a new tool for monitoring neurodegeneration during MS

T1-Weighted Intensity Increase After a Single Administration of a Linear Gadolinium-Based Contrast Agent in Multiple Sclerosis

Purpose!#!Through analysis of T1-weighted (T1w) images this study investigated gadolinium (Gd) deposition in the brain after administration of a linear (gadopentetic acid) and a cyclic (gadoteric acid) gadolinium-based contrast agent (GBCA) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), a disorder frequently requiring magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans over years.!##!Methods!#!A total of 3233 T1w images (unenhanced with respect to the same scanning session) of 881 MS patients were retrospectively analyzed. After spatial normalization and intensity scaling using a sphere within the pons, differences of all pairs of subsequent scans were calculated and attributed to either linear (n = 2718) or cyclic (n = 385) or no GBCA (n = 130) according to the first scan. Regional analyses were performed, focusing on the dentate nucleus, and whole brain analyses. By 1‑sample t‑tests, signal intensity increases within conditions were searched for; conditions were compared by 2‑sample t‑tests. Furthermore, recent hypotheses on the reversibility of GBCA deposition were tested.!##!Results!#!In the dentate nucleus, a significant increase was observed only after administration of linear GBCA even after a single GBCA administration. This increase differed significantly (p &amp;lt; 0.001) from the other conditions (cyclic and no GBCA). Whole brain analyses revealed T1w signal increases only after administration of linear GBCA within two regions, the dentate nucleus and globus pallidus. Additional analyses did not indicate any decline of Gd deposition in the brain.!##!Conclusion!#!The data point towards Gd deposition in the brain after administration of linear GBCA even after a single administration