What's age got to do with it? Supreme Court appointees and the long run location of the Supreme Court median justice

For approximately the past forty years, Republican Presidents have appointed younger Justices than have Democratic Presidents. Depending on how one does the accounting, the average age difference will vary, but will not go away. This Article posits that Republicans appointing younger justices than Democrats may have caused a rightward shift in the Supreme Court. We use computer simulations to show that if the trend continues the rightward shift will likely increase. We also produce some very rough estimates of the size of the ideological shift, contingent on the size of the age differential. In addition, we show that the Senate’s role in confirming nominated Justices has a significant moderating effect on the shift. Last, we consider the interaction between our results and the oft-proposed eighteen year staggered terms for Supreme Court Justices. We show that such an institutional change would almost completely wipe out the ideological effect of one Party appointing younger Justices

What’s age to do with it? Supreme Court appointees and the long run location of the Supreme Court median justice

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Discretizing Gravity in Warped Spacetime

We investigate the discretized version of the compact Randall-Sundrum model. By studying the mass eigenstates of the lattice theory, we demonstrate that for warped space, unlike for flat space, the strong coupling scale does not depend on the IR scale and lattice size. However, strong coupling does prevent us from taking the continuum limit of the lattice theory. Nonetheless, the lattice theory works in the manifestly holographic regime and successfully reproduces the most significant features of the warped theory. It is even in some respects better than the KK theory, which must be carefully regulated to obtain the correct physical results. Because it is easier to construct lattice theories than to find exact solutions to GR, we expect lattice gravity to be a useful tool for exploring field theory in curved space.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures; references adde

The Effect of Race/Ethnicity on the Age of Colon Cancer Diagnosis

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in the United States. Notably, racial/ethnic disparities exist in both incidence and mortality. PURPOSE: The aim of this case study was to investigate the impact of race/ethnicity on age at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in a defined population in Suffolk County, NY. METHODS: Data were retrospectively collected on race/ethnicity, health insurance status, age at diagnosis, stage at diagnosis, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake, tumor location, and body mass index for colorectal cancer patients with medical records in the Stony Brook University Medical Center database (2005-2011). Population-based data on Hispanic and non-Hispanic Whites were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry of New York State for an overlapping time period. Permutation-based ANCOVA and logistic regression with stepwise variable selection were conducted to identify covariates and first-order interactions associated with younger age at diagnosis and cancer stage as a dependent categorical variable. RESULTS: Of 328 colorectal cancer patients, Hispanics were diagnosed at a median younger age of 57y vs. 67y than non-Hispanic Whites (FDR = 0.001). Twenty-six percent of Hispanics were diagnosed with colorectal cancer prior to the recommended age (50y) for colorectal cancer surveillance compared to 11% of non-Hispanic Whites (FDR =0.007). Analysis of New York State registry data corroborated our findings that Hispanic colorectal cancer patients were diagnosed at a median younger age than non-Hispanic Whites. Permutation-based ANCOVA identified race/ethnicity and health insurance as significantly associated with age of diagnosis (P=0.001). Logistic regression selected (younger) age at diagnosis as being significantly associated with stage IV disease. The limitations of the case study reside in the use of self-reporting of race and ethnicity and in the small sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Hispanics may be at higher risk for colorectal cancer (y) and younger age at diagnosis is associated with advanced disease

The Strength of Community: The Role of Social Support Networks in Sport Officials’ Retention

Previous researchers have indicated that a sense of community and social support are vital to referee retention; however, little is known about the connection between specific characteristics of sports officials’ networks and retention. To better understand the sports officiating shortage, researchers explored the social support networks of 116 referees utilizing egocentric network analysis. The authors suggest that retention of sports officials depends on the interpersonal ties and network structures within which the referees are embedded. Specifically, resulting hierarchical models confirmed that retention relationships among officials are a multilevel phenomenon, and that outside communication and community were vital network characteristics that fostered retention relationships. Network size, tenure, and the officiating level also were significant when considering an official’s network and its impact on retention. Areas for future research and suggestions for referee managers are presented

What's age got to do with it? Supreme Court appointees and the long run location of the Supreme Court median justice

For approximately the past forty years, Republican Presidents have appointed younger Justices than have Democratic Presidents. Depending on how one does the accounting, the average age difference will vary, but will not go away. This Article posits that Republicans appointing younger justices than Democrats may have caused a rightward shift in the Supreme Court. We use computer simulations to show that if the trend continues the rightward shift will likely increase. We also produce some very rough estimates of the size of the ideological shift, contingent on the size of the age differential. In addition, we show that the Senate’s role in confirming nominated Justices has a significant moderating effect on the shift. Last, we consider the interaction between our results and the oft-proposed eighteen year staggered terms for Supreme Court Justices. We show that such an institutional change would almost completely wipe out the ideological effect of one Party appointing younger Justices

Property-driven Training: All You (N)Ever Wanted to Know About

Neural networks are known for their ability to detect general patterns in noisy data. This makes them a popular tool for perception components in complex AI systems. Paradoxically, they are also known for being vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In response, various methods such as adversarial training, data-augmentation and Lipschitz robustness training have been proposed as means of improving their robustness. However, as this paper explores, these training methods each optimise for a different definition of robustness. We perform an in-depth comparison of these different definitions, including their relationship, assumptions, interpretability and verifiability after training. We also look at constraint-driven training, a general approach designed to encode arbitrary constraints, and show that not all of these definitions are directly encodable. Finally we perform experiments to compare the applicability and efficacy of the training methods at ensuring the network obeys these different definitions. These results highlight that even the encoding of such a simple piece of knowledge such as robustness in neural network training is fraught with difficult choices and pitfalls.Comment: 10 pages, under revie

Cell-Free DNA Screening: Complexities and Challenges of Clinical Implementation

Screening for fetal aneuploidy in pregnant women using cell-free DNA has increased dramatically since the technology became commercially available in 2011. Since that time, numerous trials have demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity to screen for common aneuploidies in high-risk populations. Studies assessing the performance of these tests in low-risk populations have also demonstrated improved detection rates compared with traditional, serum-based screening strategies. Concurrent with the increased use of this technology has been a decrease in invasive procedures (amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling). As the technology becomes more widely understood, available, and utilized, challenges regarding its clinical implementation have become apparent. Some of these challenges include test failures, false-positive and false-negative results, limitations in positive predictive value in low-prevalence populations, and potential maternal health implications of abnormal results. In addition, commercial laboratories are expanding screening beyond common aneuploidies to include microdeletion screening and whole genome screening. This review article is intended to provide the practicing obstetrician with a summary of the complexities of cell-free DNA screening and the challenges of implementing it in the clinical setting

Effect of the Deepening of the Tasman Gateway on the Global Ocean

We examine the effect of the deepening of the Tasman Seaway at the end of the Eocene in a climate model with realistic late Eocene bathymetry and winds. For this, we have constructed an Eocene numerical model based on the University of Victoria climate model with wind forcing derived from a fully coupled Eocene simulation. The model climate state is characterized by an oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) involving Southern Hemisphere sinking and a northward atmospheric moisture transport across the equator. The deepening of the Tasman Seaway in the presence of an open Drake Passage and the associated establishment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) have a limited climatic impact on Antarctica. Nonetheless, the Antarctic deep sinking regions cool sufficiently to lead to a global deep ocean cooling of 3°C. No initiation of Northern Component Water is found, indicating that this may require the development of a more mature ACC. Previous studies suggest that the Ross Sea gyre cools the east coast of Australia, and expected the deepening of the Tasman Seaway to lead to a warming east of Australia due to the introduction of warmer water from the Australo-Antarctic Gulf. We here find that this warming is limited to close to the Australian coast, and that widespread cooling prevails further off shore

Cost-Comparison of Two Trabecular Micro-Bypass Stents Versus Selective Laser Trabeculoplasty or Medications Only for Intraocular Pressure Control for Patients with Open-Angle Glaucoma

Aim: Patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) whose intraocular pressure is not adequately controlled by one medication have several treatment options in the US. This analysis evaluated direct costs of unilateral eye treatment with two trabecular micro-bypass stents (two iStents) compared to selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) or medications only. Materials and methods: A population-based, annual state-transition, probabilistic, cost-of-care model was used to assess OAG-related costs over 5 years. Patients were modeled to initiate treatment in year zero with two iStents, SLT, or medications only. In years 1–5, patients could remain on initial treatment or move to another treatment option(s), or filtration surgery. Treatment strategy change probabilities were identified by a clinician panel. Direct costs were included for drugs, procedures, and complications. Results: The projected average cumulative cost at 5 years was lower in the two-stent treatment arm ($4,420) compared to the SLT arm ($4,730) or medications-only arm ($6,217). Initial year-zero costs were higher with two iStents ($2,810) than with SLT ($842) or medications only ($996). Average marginal annual costs in years 1–5 were $322 for two iStents,$777 for SLT, and $1,044 for medications only. The cumulative cost differences between two iStents vs SLT or medications only decreased over time, with breakeven by 5 or 3 years post-initiation, respectively. By year 5, cumulative savings with two iStents over SLT or medications only was$309 or $1,797, respectively. Limitations: This analysis relies on clinical expert panel opinion and would benefit from real-world evidence on use of multiple procedures and treatment switching after two-stent treatment, SLT, or polypharmaceutical initial approaches. Conclusions: Despite higher costs in year zero, annual costs thereafter were lowest in the two-stent treatment arm. Two-stent treatment may reduce OAG-related health resource use, leading to direct savings, especially over medications only or at longer time horizons