Summary of apparent prevalence of schistosome eggs in participants sampled from Gombe National Park and its neighbouring villages: actively sampled (school children), passively sampled (self-selected adults), and accompanying children (non-school children that were sampled along with the passively sampled adults).

<p>Summary of apparent prevalence of schistosome eggs in participants sampled from Gombe National Park and its neighbouring villages: actively sampled (school children), passively sampled (self-selected adults), and accompanying children (non-school children that were sampled along with the passively sampled adults).</p

The apparent prevalence based on the raw data and estimated prevalence based on the ZINB2 model for the actively sampled (school children) and passively sampled (self-selected adults) data.

<p>The apparent prevalence based on the raw data and estimated prevalence based on the ZINB2 model for the actively sampled (school children) and passively sampled (self-selected adults) data.</p

Fitted estimates and p-values for the relevant effects estimated from the final NB model for the passively sampled data.

<p>Note that there are no zero-inflation terms for the NB model because any observed zeros are assumed to reflect a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals.</p

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of <i>Schistosoma mansoni</i> infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

<div><p>Background</p><p><i>Schistosoma mansoni</i> is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of <i>S</i>. <i>mansoni</i> in a remote area of western Tanzania.</p><p>Methodology/Principal findings</p><p>Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of <i>S</i>. <i>mansoni</i> in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk factors should use active sampling whenever possible, in order to avoid the self-selection bias associated with passive sampling.</p></div

Map of the study area, showing the arrangement of villages sampled in relation to Gombe National Park.

<p>The inset shows the location of the study area within Tanzania.</p

Box and whisker plots of the observed faecal egg counts within each age category for each site for the actively sampled data.

<p>The overlaid dashed line shows the relationship between age and site for the truly infected individuals, as estimated by the ZINB2 model.</p

Box and whisker plots of the observed faecal egg counts within each age category (grouped into intervals of 10 years) for each site for the passively sampled data.

<p>The overlaid dashed line shows the relationship between age and site as estimated by the NB model.</p

Causal loop diagram of surveillance in its systems setting.

<p>Causal loop diagram of surveillance in its systems setting.</p

Decay curve relating disease incidence with surveillance efforts over time.

<p>Decay curve relating disease incidence with surveillance efforts over time.</p

A system dynamics model of the interface between surveillance and disease spread.

<p>A system dynamics model of the interface between surveillance and disease spread.</p