More positive, assertive and forward-looking: how Leave won Twitter

How did people talk about the EU referendum on Twitter? Akitaka Matsuo and Kenneth Benoit (left) analysed 23m tweets about Brexit, and found salient differences between Leave and Remain supporters. People who backed Leave were more likely to use positive, assertive and forward-looking language. They also tended to follow politicians and campaigning accounts, while Remain supporters were more likely to follow journalists. Overall, Leave were in a better position on Twitter

Multi-dimensional policy preferences in the 2015 British general election: a conjoint analysis

This research explores voter preferences in the multi-dimensional policy space of the 2015 UK general election, as well as the influence of those preferences on vote choice. In our original pre-election survey, we apply a conjoint experimental design where we use actual party manifestos to examine voters' policy preferences across five main policy domains. This design allows us to both identify voters' sincere preferences, as estimated by their responses to hypothetical policy packages, and to reveal the influence of these preferences on voter support in the actual election. Our analysis reveals a considerable level of congruence between voters' underlying policy preferences and their vote choice in the 2015 election. Our results also speak to the previous literature on policy preferences and vote choice by demonstrating that voters not only weigh the importance of particular policy domains differently, but also have clear preferences regarding specific policy positions in a given domain, which eventually influence their support for a party in the election

Decomposing political knowledge: What is confidence in knowledge and why it matters

While political knowledge has been conceptually defined with two constructs – accuracy and confidence in factual information – conventional measurement of political knowledge has relied heavily on retrieval accuracy. Without measuring confidence-in-knowledge, it is not possible to rigorously identify different types of political informedness, such as misinformedness and uninformedness. This article theoretically explores the two constructs of knowledge and argues that each construct has unique antecedents and behavioral consequences. We suggest a survey instrument for confidence-in-knowledge and introduce a method to estimate latent traits of retrieval accuracy and confidence separately. Using our original survey that includes the measure of confidence-in-knowledge, we find that misinformed citizens are as engaged in politics as the well-informed, but their active involvement does not guarantee informed political choices. Our findings warrant further theoretical and empirical exploration of confidence in political knowledge

The Electoral Strategy of Legislative Politics: Balancing Party and Member Reputation in Japan and Taiwan

This thesis explores how political parties coordinate competing objectives, such as winning elections and influencing public policy with demands from their legislators whose interests lie principally in re-election and policy distribution. Electoral and legislative institutions affect the prioritizing of these goals and the appropriate strategy by which to achieve them. Utilizing two East Asian democracies, Japan and Taiwan, my dissertation evaluates this argument via the econometric analysis of various aspects of legislative behavior and policy outcomes, such as committee assignments and deliberations, and intergovernmental fiscal transfers. In regard to committee activities, there exists a significant difference between governing and opposition parties in terms of the expected role of their members on legislative committees. In regard to fiscal transfers, governing parties distribute fiscal resources strategically to party strongholds

Predicting the Brexit Vote by Tracking and Classifying Public Opinion Using Twitter Data

We use 23M Tweets related to the EU referendum in the UK to predict the Brexit vote. In particular, we use user-generated labels known as hashtags to build training sets related to the Leave/Remain campaign. Next, we train SVMs in order to classify Tweets. Finally, we compare our results to Internet and telephone polls. This approach not only allows to reduce the time of hand-coding data to create a training set, but also achieves high level of correlations with Internet polls. Our results suggest that Twitter data may be a suitable substitute for Internet polls and may be a useful complement for telephone polls. We also discuss the reach and limitations of this method

quanteda: An R package for the quantitative analysis of textual data

quanteda is an R package providing a comprehensive workflow and toolkit for natural language processing tasks such as corpus management, tokenization, analysis, and visualization. It has extensive functions for applying dictionary analysis, exploring texts using keywords-in-context, computing document and feature similarities, and discovering multi-word expressions through collocation scoring. Based entirely on sparse operations,it provides highly efficient methods for compiling document-feature matrices and for manipulating these or using them in further quantitative analysis. Using C++ and multi-threading extensively, quanteda is also considerably faster and more efficient than other R and Python packages in processing large textual data. The package is designed for R users needing to apply natural language processing to texts,from documents to final analysis. Its capabilities match or exceed those provided in many end-user software applications, many of which are expensive and not open source. The package is therefore of great benefit to researchers, students, and other analysts with fewer financial resources. While using quanteda requires R programming knowledge, its API is designed to enable powerful, efficient analysis with a minimum of steps. By emphasizing consistent design, furthermore, quanteda lowers the barriers to learning and using NLP and quantitative text analysis even for proficient R programmers

Findings from the Hackathon on Understanding Euroscepticism Through the Lens of Textual Data

We present an overview and the results of a shared-task hackathon that took place as part of a research seminar bringing together a variety of experts and young researchers from the fields of political science, natural language processing and computational social science. The task looked at ways to develop novel methods for political text scaling to better quantify political party positions on European integration and Euroscepticism from the transcript of speeches of three legislations of the European Parliament

Association between the SERPING1 Gene and Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Polypoidal Choroidal Vasculopathy in Japanese

PURPOSE: Recently, a complement component 1 inhibitor (SERPING1) gene polymorphism was identified as a novel risk factor for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Caucasians. We aimed to investigate whether variations in SERPING1 are associated with typical AMD or with polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV) in a Japanese population. METHODS: We performed a case-control study in a group of Japanese patients with typical AMD (n = 401) or PCV (n = 510) and in 2 independent control groups--336 cataract patients without age-related maculopathy and 1,194 healthy Japanese individuals. Differences in the observed genotypic distribution between the case and control groups were tested using chi-square test for trend. Age and gender were adjusted using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: We targeted rs2511989 as the haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for the SERPING1 gene, which was reported to be associated with the risk of AMD in Caucasians. Although we compared the genotypic distributions of rs2511989 in typical AMD and PCV patients against 2 independent control groups (cataract patients and healthy Japanese individuals), SERPING1 rs2511989 was not significantly associated with typical AMD (P = 0.932 and 0.513, respectively) or PCV (P = 0.505 and 0.141, respectively). After correction for age and gender differences based on a logistic regression model, the difference in genotypic distributions remained insignificant (P>0.05). Our sample size had a statistical power of more than 90% to detect an association of a risk allele with an odds ratio reported in the original studies for rs2511989 for developing AMD. CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, we could not replicate the reported association between SERPING1 and either neovascular AMD or PCV in a Japanese population; thus, the results suggest that SERPING1 does not play a significant role in the risk of developing AMD or PCV in Japanese

Replication Data for: The Effects of Election Proximity on Participatory Shirking: The Staggered‐Term Chamber as a Laboratory

This study discusses a downside of electoral pressure. As elections approach, legislators reduce their effort in legislative activities, albeit while increasing their efficiency. To show this, we propose a new, natural experimental design exploiting staggered legislative election calendars to identify the effect of approaching elections. Two‐way natural blocking improves the balance of pretreatments and an instrumental variable approach addresses noncompliance by retirees. Our analysis of the Japanese House of Councillors demonstrates that legislators up for election show up in the chamber less often than those not facing election; however, when they do show up and speak, they tend to speak longer

Ideas for macroeconomic surveillance: A comparative text analysis of country reports by global and regional financial organizations

Institutional proliferation in global financial order raises concerns about a failure of coordination between global and regional organizations and the resulting confusion and conflict. One area of concern is macroeconomic surveillance, which is crucial for the detection of financial crises as a task subject to institutional overlaps. The existing literature does not provide systematic evidence on the extent and determinants of such coordination. To fill this lacuna, we compare the International Monetary Fund and the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office, a surveillance agency in East Asia, using their country reports as outcomes of their surveillance of East Asian countries. We conduct dictionary-based text analyses to assess the usage patterns of key terms concerning particular economic ideas. The results demonstrate substantial similarities between the country reports as well as some residual differences. These findings suggest that they engage in informal coordination based on focal-point effects through the use of general and regional economic ideas for multifaceted surveillance. They further suggest that informality permits them to exercise discretion in deciding policy categories for aligned and autonomous actions, thereby providing an efficient solution to an autonomy–coordination dilemma. Through these discussions, our study provides important implications for researchers and member governments