Deleting species from model food webs

We use food webs generated by a model to investigate the effects of deleting species on other species in the web and on the web as a whole. The model incorporates a realistic population dynamics, adaptive foragers and other features which allow for the construction of model webs which resemble empirical food webs. A large number of simulations were carried out to produce a substantial number of model webs on which deletion experiments could be performed. We deleted each species in four hundred distinct model webs and determined, on average, how many species were eliminated from the web as a result. Typically only a small number of species became extinct; in no instance was the web close to collapse. Next, we examined how the the probability of extinction of a species depended on its relationship with the deleted species. This involved the exploration of the concept of indirect predator and prey species and the extent that the probability of extinction depended on the trophic level of the two species. The effect of deletions on the web itself was studied by searching for keystone species, whose removal caused a major restructuring of the community, and also by looking at the correlation between a number of food web properties (number of species, linkage density, fraction of omnivores, degree of cycling and redundancy) and the stability of the web to deletions. With the exception of redundancy, we found little or no correlation. In particular, we found no evidence that complexity in terms of increased species number or links per species is destabilising.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figure

Association between risk factors for injurious falls and new benzodiazepine prescribing in elderly persons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Benzodiazepines are frequently prescribed to elderly patients' despite concerns about adverse effects leading to injurious falls. Previous studies have not investigated the extent to which patients with pre-existing risk factors for falls are prescribed benzodiazepines. The objective of this study is to assess if some of the risk factors for falls are associated with new benzodiazepine prescriptions in elderly persons.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using provincial administrative databases, elderly Quebec residents were screened in 1989 for benzodiazepine use and non-users were followed for up to 5 years. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate potential predictors of new benzodiazepine use among patient baseline characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the 252,811 elderly patients who had no benzodiazepine prescription during the baseline year (1989), 174,444 (69%) never filled a benzodiazepine prescription and 78,367 (31%) filled at least one benzodiazepine prescription. In the adjusted analysis, several risk factors for falls were associated with statistically significant increases in the risk of receiving a new benzodiazepine prescription including the number of prescribing physicians seen at baseline (OR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.11–1.13), being female (OR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.18–1.22) or a diagnosis of arthritis (OR: 1.11; 95% CI 1.09–1.14), depression (OR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.35–1.49) or alcohol abuse (OR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.05–1.46). The strongest predictor for starting a benzodiazepine was the use of other medications, particularly anti-depressants (OR: 1.85; 95% CI 1.75–1.95).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients with pre-existing conditions that increase the risk of injurious falls are significantly more likely to receive a new prescription for a benzodiazepine. The strength of the association between previous medication use and new benzodiazepine prescriptions highlights an important medication safety issue.</p

Association of maternal serum concentrations of 2,2', 4,4'5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE) levels with birth weight, gestational age and preterm births in Inuit and European populations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological studies on the association between maternal exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and fetal growth alteration report inconsistent findings which weights in favor of additional studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Blood samples were collected from interviewed pregnant women in Greenland (572), Kharkiv (611) and Warsaw (258) and were analyzed for CB-153 and p,p'-DDE by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Data on birth weight, gestational age and preterm birth were obtained for 1322 singleton live births. We examined the association between natural log-transformed serum POPs concentration and birth weight and gestational age using multiple linear regression and the association with prematurity using logistic regression controlling for potential confounding factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median serum concentrations of CB-153 and p,p'-DDE were for Inuit mothers 105.6 and 298.9, for Kharkiv mothers 27.0 and 645.4 and for Warsaw mothers 10.7 and 365.2 ng/g lipids, respectively. Increase in CB-153 concentration by one unit on the log scale in Inuit mothers serum was associated with significant decrease in infant birth weight of -59 g and gestational age by -0.2 week. Decreases observed in the cohorts in Kharkiv (-10 g and -0.1 week) and in Warsaw (-49 g and -0.2 week) were not statistically significant. Increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was associated with a statistically significant decrease in infant birth weight of -39.4 g and -104.3 g and shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week and -0.6 week in the Inuit and Warsaw cohorts, respectively. In the Kharkiv cohort decrease in birth weight (-30.5 g) was not significant, however a shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week per increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was of the borderline significance. There was no significant association between CB-153 and p,p'-DDE concentrations and risk of preterm birth however, in all cohorts the odds ratio was above 1.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>In utero </it>exposure to POPs may reduce birth weight and gestational age of newborns however, new insights as to why results vary across studies were not apparent.</p