Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models

Earth is faced with dramatic changes in the weather systems, which leads to climate change. Climate change affects water resources and crop production. In this study, five and seven general circulation models (GCMs) were respectively collected via the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports. Emission scenarios including B1, A1B, and A2 for AR4 and RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for AR5 were applied to predict future climate change. The weighting method of mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) was utilized to compute uncertainty related to different climate models. The scenario files made by ΔT and ΔP were applied to the downscaled model of LARS-WG to generate weighted multi-model ensemble means of temperature and precipitation for the period 2020–2039 centered on 2030s. These ensemble means were incorporated into the calibrated AquaCrop model to predict final yield and biomass. In this study, soybean data were applied for four different varieties under three irrigation treatments in field experiments carried out at Karaj Seed and Plant Improvement Institute in two successive years. However, the results of statistical analysis between the model output and observed data for all varieties and irrigation treatments in the calibration year (2010) and validation year (2011) were the same at the 95% confidence level. It is suggested that AquaCrop is a valid model to predict yield and biomass for the study area in the future. Furthermore, comparing future climatic variables to the historical period during the soybean growing season showed enhancement of these variables by the 2030s. The amplitude change of temperature was larger in AR5, whereas the amplitude change of precipitation and CO2 were larger in AR4. The soybean yield and biomass increased for all treatments in the 2030 s with positive correlation with the climatic variables. The maximum temperature represented the most significant correlation with yield and biomass for almost all treatments. Finally, soybeans might achieve an optimal threshold temperature in the future, leading to yield increases in the 2030s

Climate Change Intervention and Adaptation in Ethiopia: A Critical Appraisal of Systematic Review

Climate Change affects the agricultural sectors of different countries differently and several studies confirm climate change’s negative impact on food security. Ethiopia has experienced repeated famine for a century. The rationale of this paper is to analyze, report, and discuss the results of a critical appraisal of a systematic review looking at climate change intervention and adaptation in Ethiopia. This paper systematically appraises methodological aspects of literature reviews examining the relationship between climate change and adaptation published in peer reviewed journal between 2000 to 2016.Systematically, twenty-five relevant articles were examined. The overall effect of response and adaptation was aware the key informants and participant’s awareness creation on Ethiopians climatic change facilitation availability and improves climate change adaptation. Conclusion: This systematic review reveals that the role of climate change adaptation is crucial for food security in Ethiopia. Thus, sustaining climate change is so important to attain food security in Ethiopia

System-Dynamics Approach to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Iran\u27s Zayandeh-Rud Water System

© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers. This study aims to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud water system located in central Iran. A probabilistic multimodel ensemble scenario is used to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). The Zayandeh-Rud watershed management and sustainability model (ZRW-MSM) is run under an ensemble scenario with different uncertainty levels to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud water system and to identify effective adaptation strategies to minimize these effects. ZRW-MSM is a system dynamics model that captures the interrelations between the basin\u27s hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. This model can provide insights about the behavior trends of the basin\u27s sub-systems under climate change impacts. If current water management policies hold into the future, Gav-Khouni Marsh, an important ecosystem, will severely degrade because of the lack of environmental flows, which will likely aggravate with climate change. Results indicate that supply-oriented strategies (water transfer) alone are not effective in mitigating climate change impacts on different use sectors. Nevertheless, when combined with effective water demand management, these measures can alleviate climate change-related anthropogenic water stress in the basin

Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge (Case Study: Sefid Dasht Plain)

Introduction: Nowadays, the issue of climate change and its related problems are fundamental crisis in water resource management. On the other hand, considering that groundwater is the most important water resources, determination of the effects of climate change on groundwater and estimation the amount of their recharge will be necessary in the future. Materials and Methods: In this research, to analyze the effects of climate change scenarios on groundwater resources, a case study has been applied to the Sefid Dasht Plain located in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province in Iran. One of the three Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) which is called HadCM3, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1 is used to predict time series of climate variables of temperature and precipitation in the future. In order to downscale the data for producing the regional climate scenarios, LARS-WG model has been applied. Also, IHACRES model is calibrated and used for simulation of rainfall - runoff with monthly temperature, precipitation and runoff data. The predicted runoff and precipitation production in future have been considered as recharge parameters in the ground water model and the effects of climate change scenarios on the ground water table has been studied. To simulate the aquifer, GMS software has been used. GMS model is calibrated in both steady and unsteady state for one year available data and verification model has been performed by using the calibration parameters for four years. Results and Discussion: Results of T- test shows that LARS-WG model was able to simulate precipitation and temperature selected station appropriately. Calibration of IHACRES model indicated the best performance with τw=6 و f=7.7 and the results shows that IHACRES model simulated minimum amount of runoff appropriately. Although it didn’t simulate the maximum amount of runoff accurately, but its performance and Nash coefficient is acceptable. Results indicate that changes of monthly precipitation in the future period are less than the base period in both scenarios A2 and B1. Precipitation increases about 26 and 33 percent under the scenario B1 and A2 respectively in the future compared to the base period. The monthly average temperature in the future compared to monthly average temperature in the base period has been increasing in both scenarios about 1 degree. Root Mean Square Error criteria for aquifer simulation was 1.6 in steady state and 1.9 in unsteady state. This result indicates that the aquifer has been accurately simulated. Assuming the same rate of pumping wells in the future period and in the base period, despite the increasing of recharge in the future period, water levels decrease notably in the central plains due to exceeding operation. At the end of the period (year 2035) the amount of cumulative groundwater recharges in the scenario A2 compared to scenario B1 increases about 10 cubic meters per second, which shows that the impacts of climate change in the A2 scenario compared to the B1 scenario is more. Conclusion: Study the impact of climate change is important in our country because the major uses of water supply of groundwater. Enormous use of this resource has been defected aquifer problematically. So, it is necessary to survey impacts of climate change in future period on recharge and water levels aquifer by modeling and simulation. It is useful to predict the future conditions of groundwater. Although the recharge increases in future period, but with respect to high rate of groundwater use, it is impossible to achieve an equivalent level of aquifer without any planning. We need to control on pumping well and treatment of aquifer such as underground water dam, artificial recharge and etc. results of this research can be evaluated by other climatic scenarios, downscaling models and rainfall-runoff models. The results of this research, considerably helps to assess the effects of climate change scenarios on ground water resources as well as its proper planning and management

System-Dynamics Approach To Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies For Iran\u27S Zayandeh-Rud Water System

This study aims to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for the Zayandeh-Rud water system located in central Iran. A probabilistic multimodel ensemble scenario is used to characterize uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). The Zayandeh-Rud watershed management and sustainability model (ZRW-MSM) is run under an ensemble scenario with different uncertainty levels to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud water system and to identify effective adaptation strategies to minimize these effects. ZRW-MSM is a system dynamics model that captures the interrelations between the basin\u27s hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. This model can provide insights about the behavior trends of the basin\u27s sub-systems under climate change impacts. If current water management policies hold into the future, Gav-Khouni Marsh, an important ecosystem, will severely degrade because of the lack of environmental flows, which will likely aggravate with climate change. Results indicate that supply-oriented strategies (water transfer) alone are not effective in mitigating climate change impacts on different use sectors. Nevertheless, when combined with effective water demand management, these measures can alleviate climate change-related anthropogenic water stress in the basin

Water Transfer As A Solution To Water Shortage: A Fix That Can Backfire

Zayandeh-Rud River Basin is one of the most important basins in central Iran, which has been continually challenged by water stress during the past 60. years. Traditionally, a supply-oriented management scheme has been prescribed as a reliable solution to water shortage problems in the basin, resulting in a number of water transfer projects that have more than doubled the natural flow of the river. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the reliability of inter-basin water transfer to meet the growing water demand in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. A system dynamics model is developed to capture the interrelationships between different sub-systems of the river basin, namely the hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. Results from simulating a range of possible policy options for resolving water shortage problems indicate that water is essentially the development engine of the system. Therefore, supplying more water to the basin without considering the dynamics of the interrelated problems will eventually lead to increased water demand. It is demonstrated that the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin management system has characteristics of the Fixes that Backfire system archetype, in which inter-basin water transfer is an inadequate water management policy, causing significant unintended side-effects. A comprehensive solution to the problem includes several policy options that simultaneously control the dynamics of the system, minimizing the risk of unintended consequences. In particular, policy makers should consider minimizing agricultural water demand through changing crop patterns as an effective policy solution for the basin\u27s water problems. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

A Survey Of Exemplar Teachers\u27 Perceptions, Use, And Access Of Computer-Based Games And Technology For Classroom Instruction

This study evaluates climate change impacts on crop production and water productivity of four major crops (wheat, barley, rice, and corn) in Iran\u27s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Multi-model ensemble scenarios are used to deal with uncertainties in climate change projections for the study period (2015-2044). On average, monthly temperature will increase by 1.1 to 1.5. °C under climate change. Monthly precipitation changes may be positive or negative in different months of the year. Nevertheless, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 11 to 31% with climate change. While warming can potentially shorten the crop growth period, crop production and water productivity of all crops are expected to decrease due to lower precipitation and higher water requirements under higher temperature. Out of the four studied crops, rice and corn are more vulnerable to climate change due to their high irrigation water demand. So, their continued production can be compromised under climate change. This finding is of particular importance, given the locally high economic and food value of these crops in central Iran. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Water transfer as a solution to water shortage: A fix that can Backfire

Zayandeh-Rud River Basin is one of the most important basins in central Iran, which has been continually challenged by water stress during the past 60. years. Traditionally, a supply-oriented management scheme has been prescribed as a reliable solution to water shortage problems in the basin, resulting in a number of water transfer projects that have more than doubled the natural flow of the river. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the reliability of inter-basin water transfer to meet the growing water demand in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. A system dynamics model is developed to capture the interrelationships between different sub-systems of the river basin, namely the hydrologic, socioeconomic, and agricultural sub-systems. Results from simulating a range of possible policy options for resolving water shortage problems indicate that water is essentially the development engine of the system. Therefore, supplying more water to the basin without considering the dynamics of the interrelated problems will eventually lead to increased water demand. It is demonstrated that the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin management system has characteristics of the Fixes that Backfire system archetype, in which inter-basin water transfer is an inadequate water management policy, causing significant unintended side-effects. A comprehensive solution to the problem includes several policy options that simultaneously control the dynamics of the system, minimizing the risk of unintended consequences. In particular, policy makers should consider minimizing agricultural water demand through changing crop patterns as an effective policy solution for the basin\u27s water problems. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Social acceptability of flood management strategies under climate change using contingent valuation method (CVM)

Floods are natural hazards with serious impact on many aspects of human life. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that climate change already has significant impact on magnitude and frequency of flood events worldwide. Thus, it is suggested to adopt strategies to manage damage impacts of climate change. For this, involving the local community in the decision-making process, as well as experts and decision-makers, is essential. We focused on assessing the social acceptability of flood management strategies under climate change through a socio-hydrological approach using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). For this purpose as well, hydro-climate modelling and the Analytical Network Process (ANP) were used. Among twelve investigated flood management strategies, "river restoration", "agricultural management and planning", and "watershed management" were the publicly most accepted strategies. Assessment of the social acceptability of these three strategies was carried out by use of the CVM and Willingness to Pay (WTP) methodology. Generally, 50%, 38%, and 18% were willing to pay and 44%, 48%, and 52% were willing to contribute flood management strategy in zones 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Overall, peoples' WTP for flood management strategies decreased with increasing distance from the river. Among different investigated dependent variables, household income had the highest influence on WTP