Temporal change in correlations between residuals of pollock stock-recruitment relationship and biotic and abiotic indices.

<p>Correlation coefficients were calculated for 15-year moving windows centered at the x-axis values. The symbols indicate the correlations with annual mean flounder and pollock overlap (Overlap_yr−1), ln-transformed flounder stock size (Flounder_y-1), and average July-September sea surface temperatures (SST_yr−1, °C). Stippled lines: statistical significance of correlations = 0.05 (ignoring autocorrelation).</p

Predicted changes in species overlap with increasing temperatures.

<p>Predicted increases in predator and prey occurrences (black circles) and probability of species overlap (red circles) with a standardized unit increase in spatially explicit bottom temperatures in the early regime (based on year 1987; A, overlap; C, flounder; E, juvenile pollock) and late regime (based on year 2005; B, overlap; D, flounder; F, juvenile pollock). Gray circles indicate locations of predicted decreases in species occurrences and overlap with increased temperatures. Circle size reflects magnitude of change. Missing circles at survey locations indicate no change with increasing temperatures. The shaded regions and black isolines (A, B) reflect the probability of overlap averaged across all years in the two regimes under normal conditions, i.e. without an increase in water temperature. Light and dark shading show areas of high and low overlap, respectively. The 50 m, 100 m and 200 m depth contours are shown.</p

Study region and cold pool.

<p>Summer survey bottom temperatures (°C) in the eastern Bering Sea during a cold year (A; 2007) and warm year (B; 2003). The 50 m, 100 m and 200 m depth contours are shown.</p

Time series data.

<p>Annual estimates of flounder biomass (A; in tons), age-1 pollock abundance (B; black line, in millions), age-2 pollock abundance (B; gray line, in millions), mean probability of flounder and age-1 pollock overlap (C; based on model estimates), mean July to September sea surface temperatures (D; gray line), and mean summer trawl survey bottom temperature (D; black line).</p

Flounder diet composition.

<p>Pollock age-class composition in flounder diets by number for northwest and southeast shelf regions of the eastern Bering Sea (EBS; see Fig. 3 for delineation). The estimated contributions of individual age classes by mass are less certain and more biased than the numerical estimates for each class and therefore are not presented here. The total contributions of pollock to flounder diets in the northwest region are 8% by number, 77% by mass, 28% by occurrence, and in the southeast region, 4% by number, 58% by mass, and 11% by occurrence. Modified from the work of Zador and others <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066025#pone.0066025-Zador1" target="_blank">[12]</a>. See <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066025#pone.0066025-Zador1" target="_blank">[12]</a> for details on sampling and analysis.</p

GAM structures and selection criteria. See methods for description of model terms and notations.

<p>Models with IDs and selection criteria highlighted in bold best predicted the occurrence of adult flounder and juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea. Dev expl, % deviance explained; UBRE, Un-Biased Risk Estimator criterion; AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; gCV, genuine cross validation.</p

Study area and sampling sites.

<p>Map of the western Mediterranean Sea showing 200 to 1000 m isobaths and selected stations sampled for at least 5 out of the 12 years in the MEDITS surveys. Main surface circulation patterns are described by arrows: Northern Current (NC), Balearic Current (BC), Atlantic jet (AJ) and Alboran gyres (AG).</p

Overall predicted distributions of octopus (<i>Eledone cirrhosa</i>) and squid (<i>Illex coindetii</i>) estimated from variable coefficient Delta Generalized Additive Models.

<p>A) Spatial distribution of log transformed densities. B) Partial effects of depth on the vertical distribution of cephalopod densities. Shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

Overall predicted distributions (2001–2012) of environmental and trophic covariates.

<p>A) log transformed density of benthic crustaceans (preys of octopus), B) log transformed density of meso-pelagic fish (preys of squid), C) Chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), and D) sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from variable coefficient Generalized Additive Models.</p

Study area and sampling sites.

<p>Map of the western Mediterranean Sea showing 200 to 1000 m isobaths and selected stations sampled for at least 5 out of the 12 years in the MEDITS surveys. Main surface circulation patterns are described by arrows: Northern Current (NC), Balearic Current (BC), Atlantic jet (AJ) and Alboran gyres (AG).</p