Does oral polio vaccine have non-specific effects on all-cause mortality? Natural experiments within a randomised controlled trial of early measles vaccine.

BACKGROUND: BCG and measles vaccine (MV) may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs). If an unplanned intervention with a vaccine (a natural experiment) modifies the estimated effect in a randomised controlled trial (RCT), this suggests NSEs. We used this approach to test NSEs of triple oral polio vaccine (OPV). METHODS: During an RCT of 2 doses of MV at 4.5 and 9 months versus 1 dose of MV at 9 months of age, we experienced 2 natural experiments with OPV. We assessed whether these OPV experiments modified the effect of 2-dose MV in the MV trial. SETTING: MV RCT conducted in urban Guinea-Bissau 2003-2009. INTERVENTIONS: Natural experiments with OPV due to missing vaccine and the implementation of OPV campaigns. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Changes in the mortality rate ratio (MRR) for 2-dose MV versus 1-dose MV. RESULTS: First, the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) overall was 0.70 (0.52 to 0.94), but the MRR was 1.04 (0.53 to 2.04) when OPV at birth (OPV0) was not given, suggesting that early priming with OPV was important for the effect of 2-dose MV. The effect of OPV0 depended on age of administration; the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) was 0.45 (0.29 to 0.71) for children receiving OPV0 in the first week of life, but 3.63 (0.87 to 15.2) for those receiving OPV0 after the first month of life (p=0.007, test of no interaction). Second, campaign-OPV may have reduced the difference between the randomisation groups since the MRR (2-dose/1-dose MV) was 0.60 (0.42 to 0.85) for children who had not received campaign-OPV before RCT-enrolment versus 0.72 (0.23 to 2.31) and 1.42 (0.70 to 2.90) for children who had received 1 or 2 doses of campaign-OPV-before-enrolment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bissau had no polio infection during this trial, so OPV0 and campaign-OPV may have NSEs since they modified the effect of 2-dose MV in an RCT. Different interventions may interact to a much larger effect than usually assumed

Protective efficacy of standard Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccination in infants aged 4.5 months: interim analysis of a randomised clinical trial

Objective To examine the protective efficacy of measles vaccination in infants in a low income country before 9 months of age

Non-specific effects of standard measles vaccine at 4.5 and 9 months of age on childhood mortality: randomised controlled trial

Objective To examine in a randomised trial whether a 25% difference in mortality exists between 4.5 months and 3 years of age for children given two standard doses of Edmonston-Zagreb measles vaccines at 4.5 and 9 months of age compared with those given one dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age (current policy)

Measles vaccination in the presence or absence of maternal measles antibody: impact on child survival.

BACKGROUND: Measles vaccine (MV) has a greater effect on child survival when administered in early infancy, when maternal antibody may still be present. METHODS: To test whether MV has a greater effect on overall survival if given in the presence of maternal measles antibody, we reanalyzed data from 2 previously published randomized trials of a 2-dose schedule with MV given at 4-6 months and at 9 months of age. In both trials antibody levels had been measured before early measles vaccination. RESULTS: In trial I (1993-1995), the mortality rate was 0.0 per 1000 person-years among children vaccinated with MV in the presence of maternal antibody and 32.3 per 1000 person-years without maternal antibody (mortality rate ratio [MRR], 0.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0-.52). In trial II (2003-2007), the mortality rate was 4.2 per 1000 person-years among children vaccinated in presence of maternal measles antibody and 14.5 per 1000 person-years without measles antibody (MRR, 0.29; 95% CI, .09-.91). Possible confounding factors did not explain the difference. In a combined analysis, children who had measles antibody detected when they received their first dose of MV at 4-6 months of age had lower mortality than children with no maternal antibody, the MRR being 0.22 (95% CI, .07-.64) between 4-6 months and 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Child mortality in low-income countries may be reduced by vaccinating against measles in the presence of maternal antibody, using a 2-dose schedule with the first dose at 4-6 months (earlier than currently recommended) and a booster dose at 9-12 months of age. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00168558

Is early measles vaccination better than later measles vaccination?

WHO recommends delaying measles vaccination (MV) until maternal antibody has waned. However, early MV may improve child survival by reducing mortality from conditions other than measles infection. We tested whether early MV improves child survival compared with later MV. We found 43 studies comparing measles-vaccinated and measles-unvaccinated children; however, only 16 studies had specific information that MV had been provided at 4-13 months of age, many before 9 months of age. In the 10 best studies (4 randomized trials and 6 observational studies) control children did not receive MV during follow-up. In eight of these studies the vaccine efficacy against death (VED) was 60% or more. In four studies with information on MV provided both before and after 12 months of age, the all-cause mortality reduction was significantly larger for children vaccinated in infancy (VED=74%; 95% CI 51-86%) than for children vaccinated after 12 months of age (VED=29%; CI 8-46%). Prevention of measles explained little of the reduction in mortality. In five studies with information on measles infection, VED was 67% (51-78%) and when measles deaths were excluded, VED was only reduced to 65% (47-77%). One natural experiment compared MV at 4-8 months versus MV at 9-11 months of age and found significantly lower all-cause mortality with early vaccination, the difference being 39% (8-60%). Child mortality may be reduced if MV is given earlier than currently recommended by international organizations