In practice: RECOVERY Trial

The Randomised Evaluation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Therapy Trial (RECOVERY) has been the largest COVID-19 treatment study conducted. It provided compelling evidence on the safety and efficacy, or lack thereof, of a multitude of therapies postulated to be of benefit to COVID-19 patients. This chapter describes the background and environment that led to the protocol design, the key characteristics of the protocol, the operational elements facilitating speedy execution of the study, and the impact and subsequent international expansion of the study

Use of NHS Digital datasets as trial data in the UK: a position paper

Background: Clinical trial teams increasingly want to make use of data from healthcare systems (“healthcare data”), particularly to enhance recruitment and follow-up of participants, to reduce time and cost, and to stop the duplication of effort. However, there is continued uncertainty of how regulators regard healthcare data used for trial purposes, in terms of provenance, quality and reliability. Objectives: There were two key objectives: First, to demonstrate the data integrity of two datasets held by NHS Digital (NHSD) that are most requested by trial teams; and second, to set out an approach by which any other healthcare systems datasets can be similarly evaluated. Method: The data lifecycles of the datasets were carefully documented, mapping the flow of data from the originating healthcare provider’s databases to NHSD warehouses and onwards to clinical trials teams. These were assessed for evidence of whether the datasets are accurate, reliable, complete, contemporaneous, and well-governed. Result: The assessment method was applied to (a) the Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC) dataset and (b) the Civil Registration of Deaths (CRD) dataset. This paper clearly demonstrates that their collection and management through NHSD systems ensure their integrity and reliability. The datasets are accurate representations of the data held by the originating providers (acute NHS trusts and local registrars). Conclusion: Based on these findings, the HES APC and CRD datasets satisfy the assessment criteria that demonstrate they are reliable transcribed copies of the original source data. Implications: First, these datasets can be used directly for clinical trial data, with trial teams focusing on the accuracy of algorithms and processes to identify particular outcomes rather than on the integrity of the data flow. Second, this assessment approach should be used to assess whether other healthcare systems datasets are ready to be used as transcribed copies of source data, and for data providers to take appropriate steps to redress this matter if they are not

Serious adverse effects of extended-release niacin/laropiprant: results from the Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) Trial

Purpose The Heart Protection Study 2–Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trial of patients at high risk of vascular disease found that adding extended-release niacin-laropiprant to intensive statin-based LDL-lowering therapy had no benefit on cardiovascular outcomes. However, the trial also identified previously unrecognized serious adverse effects (including new-onset diabetes, bleeding, and infection). Our objective was to explore the safety profile of niacin-laropiprant and examine whether any patients were at lower (or higher) risk of its adverse effects. Methods HPS2-THRIVE was a randomized, double-blind trial of niacin-laropiprant (2000/40 mg/d) versus placebo among 25,673 patients at high risk of vascular disease. Information on all serious adverse events was collected during a median of 3.9 years of study treatment. Effects of niacin-laropiprant on new-onset diabetes, disturbances of diabetes control, bleeding, infection, and gastrointestinal upset were estimated by (1) time after randomization, (2) severity, (3) baseline characteristics, (4) baseline risk of the adverse event of interest, and (5) risk of major vascular event. Findings The hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset diabetes with niacin/laropiprant was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16–1.51; P < .001), which corresponded to an absolute excess of 4 people (95% CI, 2–6) developing diabetes per 1000 person-years in the study population as a whole. Among the 8299 participants with diabetes at baseline, the HR for serious disturbances in diabetes control was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.35–1.80), corresponding to an absolute excess of 12 (95% CI, 8–16) per 1000 person-years. The HR was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.17–1.63; P < .001) for serious bleeding, corresponding to an absolute excess of 2 (95% CI, 1–3) per 1000 person-years and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11–1.34; P < .001) for serious infection, corresponding to an absolute excess of 4 (95% CI, 2–6) per 1000 person-years. The excess risks of these serious adverse events were larger in the first year after starting niacin-laropiprant therapy than in later years (except for the excess of infection, which did not appear to attenuate with time), and the risks of nonfatal and fatal events were similarly increased. The absolute excesses of each of these adverse effects were similar regardless of the baseline risk of the outcome. Implications Practitioners or patients considering the use of niacin (in addition to, or instead of, a statin) despite the lack of evidence of cardiovascular benefits (at least when added to effective statin therapy) should take account of the significant risks of these serious adverse effects when making such decisions. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00461630

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

Background The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown. Methods Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR). Results Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m2 increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06–genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m2 genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively. Conclusions Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD–associated risk.</p

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries

The potential for improving cardio-renal outcomes by sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in people with chronic kidney disease: a rationale for the EMPA-KIDNEY study

Diabetes is a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but in aggregate, non-diabetic diseases account for a higher proportion of cases of CKD than diabetes in many parts of the world. Inhibition of the renin–angiotensin system reduces the risk of kidney disease progression and treatments that lower blood pressure (BP) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk in this population. Nevertheless, despite such interventions, considerable risks for kidney and CV complications remain. Recently, large placebo-controlled outcome trials have shown that sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors reduce the risk of CV disease (including CV death and hospitalization for heart failure) in people with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk of atherosclerotic disease, and these effects were largely independent of improvements in hyperglycaemia, BP and body weight. In the kidney, increased sodium delivery to the macula densa mediated by SGLT-2 inhibition has the potential to reduce intraglomerular pressure, which may explain why SGLT-2 inhibitors reduce albuminuria and appear to slow kidney function decline in people with diabetes. Importantly, in the trials completed to date, these benefits appeared to be maintained at lower levels of kidney function, despite attenuation of glycosuric effects, and did not appear to be dependent on ambient hyperglycaemia. There is therefore a rationale for studying the cardio-renal effects of SGLT-2 inhibition in people at risk of CV disease and hyperfiltration (i.e. those with substantially reduced nephron mass and/or albuminuria), irrespective of whether they have diabetes

Impact of new cardiovascular events on quality of life and hospital costs in people with cardiovascular disease in the United Kingdom and United States

Background Despite optimized risk factor control, people with prior cardiovascular disease remain at high cardiovascular disease risk. We assess the immediate‐ and longer‐term impacts of new vascular and nonvascular events on quality of life (QoL) and hospital costs among participants in the REVEAL (Randomized Evaluation of the Effects of Anacetrapib Through Lipid Modification) trial in secondary prevention. Methods and Results Data on demographic and clinical characteristics, health‐related quality of life (QoL: EuroQoL 5‐Dimension‐5‐Level), adverse events, and hospital admissions during the 4‐year follow‐up of the 21 820 participants recruited in Europe and North America informed assessments of the impacts of new adverse events on QoL and hospital costs from the UK and US health systems' perspectives using generalized linear regression models. Reductions in QoL were estimated in the years of event occurrence for nonhemorrhagic stroke (−0.067 [United Kingdom], −0.069 [US]), heart failure admission (−0.072 [United Kingdom], −0.103 [US]), incident cancer (−0.064 [United Kingdom], −0.068 [US]), and noncoronary revascularization (−0.071 [United Kingdom], −0.061 [US]), as well as in subsequent years following these events. Myocardial infarction and coronary revascularization (CRV) procedures were not found to affect QoL. All adverse events were associated with additional hospital costs in the years of events and in subsequent years, with the highest additional costs in the years of noncoronary revascularization (£5830 [United Kingdom], US dollars 14 133 [US Medicare]), of myocardial infarction with urgent CRV procedure (£5614, US dollars 24722), and of urgent/nonurgent CRV procedure without myocardial infarction (£4674/£4651 and US dollars 15 251/US dollars 17 539). Conclusions Stroke, heart failure, and noncoronary revascularization procedures substantially reduce QoL, and all cardiovascular disease events increase hospital costs. These estimates are useful in informing cost‐effectiveness of interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in secondary prevention. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01252953; https://www.Isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN48678192; https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu. Unique identifier: 2010‐023467‐18