Simple length rigidity for Kleinian surface groups and applications

We prove that a Kleinian surface groups is determined, up to conjugacy in the isometry group of $\mathbb H^3$, by its simple marked length spectrum. As a first application, we show that a discrete faithful representation of the fundamental group of a compact, acylindrical, hyperbolizable 3-manifold $M$ is similarly determined by the translation lengths of images of elements of $\pi_1(M)$ represented by simple curves on the boundary of $M$. As a second application, we show the group of diffeomorphisms of quasifuchsian space which preserve the renormalized intersection number is generated by the (extended) mapping class group and complex conjugation

Actions of higher-rank lattices on free groups

If $G$ is a semisimple Lie group of real rank at least 2 and $\Gamma$ is an irreducible lattice in $G$, then every homomorphism from $\Gamma$ to the outer automorphism group of a finitely generated free group has finite image.Comment: 11 pages, no figures. Final version. To appear in Compositio Mat

Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?

This paper provides a new test for whether different-currency assets are imperfect substitutes. The test exploits that under floating rates, changing public currency demand has no direct effect on monetary fundamentals, current or future. Price effects from imperfect substitutability are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per 1 billion dollar (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to intervention trades in the special case when they are indistinguishable from private trades (i.e., when interventions are sterilized, anonymous, and provide no monetary-policy signal).

Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?

This paper provides a new test for whether different-currency assets are imperfect substitutes. Past work on imperfect substitutability in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on monetary fundamentals, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for price effects from imperfect substitutability. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Price effects from imperfect substitutability are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to intervention trades in the special case when they are indistinguishable from private trades (i.e., when interventions are sterilized, anonymous, and provide no monetary-policy signal).

Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention

This paper tests the portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination in a new way. Past work on portfolio balance in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand, rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on interest rates, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for portfolio-balance effects on price. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio-balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Portfolio-balance effects are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to central-bank trades as well, as long as they are sterilized, secret, and provide no monetary-policy signal. Intervention of this type is most effective when the flow of macroeconomic news is strong.

Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow

We address whether transaction flows in foreign exchange markets convey fundamental information. Our GE model includes fundamental information that first manifests at the micro level and is not symmetrically observed by all agents. This produces foreign exchange transactions that play a central role in information aggregation, providing testable links between transaction flows, exchange rates, and future fundamentals. We test these links using data on all end-user currency trades received at Citibank over 6.5 years, a sample sufficiently long to analyze real-time forecasts at the quarterly horizon. The predictions are borne out in four empirical findings that define this paper's main contribution: (1) transaction flows forecast future macro variables such as output growth, money growth, and inflation, (2) transaction flows forecast these macro variables significantly better than the exchange rate does, (3) transaction flows (proprietary) forecast future exchange rates, and (4) the forecasted part of fundamentals is better at explaining exchange rates than standard measured fundamentals.

Evaluation of Proposed Rocket Engines for Earth-to-Orbit Vehicles

The objective is to evaluate recently analyzed rocket engines for advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles. The engines evaluated are full-flow staged combustion engines and split expander engines, both at mixture ratios at 6 and above with oxygen and hydrogen propellants. The vehicles considered are single-stage and two-stage fully reusable vehicles and the Space Shuttle with liquid rocket boosters. The results indicate that the split expander engine at a mixture ratio of about 7 is competitive with the full-flow staged combustion engine for all three vehicle concepts. A key factor in this result is the capability to increase the chamber pressure for the split expander as the mixture ratio is increased from 6 to 7

Welfare Reform in Agricultural California

When welfare reforms were enacted in 1996, a higher than average percentage of residents in the agricultural heartland of California, the San Joaquin Valley, received cash assistance. Average annual unemployment rates during the 1990s ranged from 12% to 20%, and 15% to 20% of residents in major farming counties received cash benefits. This analysis develops and estimates a two-equation cross-sectionally correlated and timewise autoregressive model to test the hypothesis that in agricultural areas, seasonal work, low earnings, and high unemployment, as well as few entry-level jobs that offer wages and benefits equivalent to welfare benefits, promote welfare use and limit the potential of local labor markets to absorb ex-welfare recipients.cross-sectionally correlated and timewise autoregressive model, farm workers, immigration, welfare reform, Public Economics,