A Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for measurement of jet precession in radio-loud active galactic nuclei

© 2020 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Jet precession can reveal the presence of binary systems of supermassive black holes. The ability to accurately measure the parameters of jet precession from radio-loud AGN is important for constraining the binary supermassive black hole population, which are expected as a result of hierarchical galaxy evolution. The age, morphology, and orientation along the line of sight of a given source often result in uncertainties regarding jet path. This paper presents a new approach for efficient determination of precession parameters using a 2D MCMC curve-fitting algorithm which provides us a full posterior probability distribution on the fitted parameters. Applying the method to Cygnus A, we find evidence for previous suggestions that the source is precessing. Interpreted in the context of binary black holes leads to a constraint of parsec scale and likely sub-parsec orbital separation for the putative supermassive binary.Peer reviewe

Surrender your market! Do the G5 countries use World Bank Trade Conditionality to promote Trade?

In this paper we investigate whether the design of World Bank conditionality, namely the extent of trade liberalization conditions, is influenced by the commercial motives of the Bank’s five major shareholders. Using a newly available dataset on World Bank conditionality we analyze the conditionality design of more than 870 projects over the 1981 – 2010 period. Our results suggest that countries of commercial interest for Germany have, on average, more trade liberalization conditions attached to their loans, indicating a trade promotion strategy. For the US, on the other hand, our results show that trading partners receive significantly fewer trade conditions. This suggests protection of the own bilateral trading relations from competition that would arise in the case of more open markets

3D Hydrodynamic Simulations of Large-Scale Precessing Jets : Radio Morphology

This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society] ©: 2020 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. The final published version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa3020.The prospect of relativistic jets exhibiting complex morphologies as a consequence of geodetic precession has long been hypothesised. We have carried out a 3D hydrodynamics simulation study varying the precession cone angle, jet injection speed and number of turns per simulation time. Using proxies for the radio emission we project the sources with different inclinations to the line of sight to the observer. We find that a number of different precession combinations result in characteristic `X' shaped sources which are frequently observed in radio data, and some precessing jet morphologies may mimic the morphological signatures of restarting radio sources. We look at jets ranging in scale from tens to hundreds of kiloparsecs and develop tools for identifying known precession indicators of point symmetry, curvature and jet misalignment from the lobe axis and show that, based on our simulation sample of precessing and non-precessing jets, a radio source that displays any of these indicators has a 98% chance of being a precessing source.Peer reviewe

Activity Dependent Branching Ratios in Stocks, Solar X-ray Flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld Sandpile Model

We define an activity dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series $X_{t}$. The branching ratio $b_x$ is defined as $b_x= E[\xi_x/x]$. The random variable $\xi_x$ is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to $x$, so $\xi_x=\{X_{t+1}|X_t=x\}$. If $b_x>1$, the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to $x$, while if $b_x<1$, it is subcritical. For stock prices we find $b_x=1$ within statistical uncertainty, for all $x$, consistent with an ``efficient market hypothesis''. For stock volumes, solar X-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, $b_x$ is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power law behavior. For solar X-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where $b_x \simeq 1$, which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for $X_t$, and for $\xi_x$. For the BTW model the distribution of $\xi_x$ is Gaussian, for $x$ sufficiently larger than one, and its variance grows linearly with $x$. Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where $b_x$ is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model -- supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality.Comment: 7 pages, 11 figure

New mechanisms for forming multiple hotspots in radio jets

Hotspots of radio galaxies are regions of shock-driven particle acceleration. Multiple hotspots have long been identified as potential indicators of jet movement or precession. Two frequent explanations describe a secondary hotspot as either the location of a prior jet termination point, or a deflected backflow-driven shock: the so-called Dentist's Drill and Splatter Spot models. We created high-resolution simulations of precessing jets with a range of parameters. In addition to the existing mechanisms, our results show three additional mechanisms for multiple hotspot formation: (1) the splitting of a large terminal hotspots into passive and active components; (2) jet stream splitting resulting in two active hotspots; (3) dynamic multiple hotspot complexes that form as a result of jet termination in a turbulent cocoon, linked here to rapid precession. We show that these distinct types of multiple hotspots are difficult to differentiate in synthetic radio maps, particularly hotspot complexes which can easily be mistaken for the jet itself. We discuss the implication for hypothesised binary supermassive black hole systems where jet precession is a key component of the morphology, and show a selection of potential precession candidates found using the LOFAR Two-Metre Sky Survey Data Release 2 (LoTSS DR2).Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure

Spatial competition and price formation

We look at price formation in a retail setting, that is, companies set prices, and consumers either accept prices or go someplace else. In contrast to most other models in this context, we use a two-dimensional spatial structure for information transmission, that is, consumers can only learn from nearest neighbors. Many aspects of this can be understood in terms of generalized evolutionary dynamics. In consequence, we first look at spatial competition and cluster formation without price. This leads to establishement size distributions, which we compare to reality. After some theoretical considerations, which at least heuristically explain our simulation results, we finally return to price formation, where we demonstrate that our simple model with nearly no organized planning or rationality on the part of any of the agents indeed leads to an economically plausible price.Comment: Minor change