We Ran One Regression

The recent controversy over model selection in the context of `growth regressions' has led to some remarkably numerous `estimation' strategies, including 4 million regressions by Sala-i-Martin (1997b). Only one regression is really needed, namely the general unrestricted model, appropriately reduced to a parsimonious encompassing congruent representation. Such an outcome was achieved in one run on PcGets, within 15 minutes of receiving from Professor Ley the data set in Fernández et al (2001). We reproduce that equation, and corroborate the findings in Hoover and Perez (2004), who also adopt an automatic general-to-simple approach.

Sub-sample Model Selection Procedures in Gets Modelling

When the DGP is nested in the model, PcGets delivers high performance selection across different (unknown) states of nature. One of its steps involves sub-sample post-selection assessment, and here we consider its properties and investigate its practical application. The simulation results show that conditional on retaining a variable, sub-sample information cannot discriminate between substantive and adventitious significance. The Monte Carlo experiments also reveal that the sub-sample selection method suggested by Hoover and Perez (1999) is dominated by procedures selecting only on full-sample evidence, when both approaches are evaluated at a given size. Nevertheless, although the sub-sample procedures do not result in a genuinely beneficial trade-off between size and power, they are particularly successful in controlling the size for selection problems that were previously seemed almost intractable.

The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling

We describe some recent developments in PcGets, and consider their impact on its performance across different (unknown) states of nature. We discuss the consistency of its selection procedures, and examine the extent to which model selection is non-distortionary at relevant sample sizes. The problems posed in judging performance on collinear data are noted. We also describe how PcGets has been extended to assist non-experts in model formulation, handle more variables than observations, and tackle non-linear models.Model selection, econometric methodology, PcGets, selection consistency, Monte Carlo

The Effect of Insurance Premium Taxes on Employment

This report provides estimates of the effect of the insurance premium taxes on state-level employment in the insurance industry. FRC Report 18

Does native title merely provide an entitlement to be native? Indigenes, identities, and applied anthropological practice

This paper is directed to two immediate purposes which lie beyond anthropology as practiced within academia: to contribute to the ongoing dialogue within the discipline on applied anthropological engagement in and with the Australian native title and Indigenous development arenas; and secondly, to add to our conversations with Indigenous people themselves on what it means to be Indigenous in contemporary Australia. It aims to do this by focusing initially on what I argue are two ostensibly alternative constructions of contemporary Indigenous identities implicitly established through different provisions of Australia's Native Title Act, one of which I propose draws from the particular legal construction of Indigenous tradition in that Act and in native title jurisprudence, and the other from certain aspects of identity held to be associated with modernity. I argue, however, that there is a false dichotomy between tradition and modernity in contemporary circumstances, and that Indigenous identities are better understood as ‘hybrid’ in the sense that they involve a complex interpenetration of forms of identity and practice drawn from diverse domains. I further argue that these arguments have important implications for an applied anthropological practice well beyond the native title arena, and for Indigenous people themselves

Impact of Asylum on Receiving Countries

Whereas asylum seekers and the systems for adjudicating their claims to refugee status in developed countries have garnished considerable attention and, often, have been at the centre of political controversy, there has been relatively little research on their actual impact on receiving countries. This article discusses the factors that determine the impact of asylum, as distinct from other forms of migration, concluding that the number of asylum seekers, government policies and socioeconomic characteristics all determine the impact of asylum. Hence, the impacts of asylum can differ significantly from country to country. Even within the same country, one could expect to see varied impacts depending on the age, education and skill level of individual asylum seekers. The paper then examines the fiscal, economic, and social impacts of asylum, as well as its impact on foreign policy and national security. It concludes with an examination of the impact of developed countries? asylum policies on the protection of refugees in developing countries. When refugee protection has been weakened in economically strong states and asylum restrictions are perceived as burden shifting, international protection in the developing world where most refugees try to survive has been undercut.asylum, fiscal impact, economic impact, national security

Mitochondrial Approaches to Protect Against Cardiac Ischemia and Reperfusion Injury

The mitochondrion is a vital component in cellular energy metabolism and intracellular signaling processes. Mitochondria are involved in a myriad of complex signaling cascades regulating cell death vs. survival. Importantly, mitochondrial dysfunction and the resulting oxidative and nitrosative stress are central in the pathogenesis of numerous human maladies including cardiovascular diseases, neurodegenerative diseases, diabetes, and retinal diseases, many of which are related. This review will examine the emerging understanding of the role of mitochondria in the etiology and progression of cardiovascular diseases and will explore potential therapeutic benefits of targeting the organelle in attenuating the disease process. Indeed, recent advances in mitochondrial biology have led to selective targeting of drugs designed to modulate or manipulate mitochondrial function, to the use of light therapy directed to the mitochondrial function, and to modification of the mitochondrial genome for potential therapeutic benefit. The approach to rationally treat mitochondrial dysfunction could lead to more effective interventions in cardiovascular diseases that to date have remained elusive. The central premise of this review is that if mitochondrial abnormalities contribute to the etiology of cardiovascular diseases (e.g., ischemic heart disease), alleviating the mitochondrial dysfunction will contribute to mitigating the severity or progression of the disease. To this end, this review will provide an overview of our current understanding of mitochondria function in cardiovascular diseases as well as the potential role for targeting mitochondria with potential drugs or other interventions that lead to protection against cell injury

Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation

This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.Insurance industry

Identifications of Einstein Slew Survey sources

The status of identifications of the Einstien Slew Survey, a bright soft x-ray catalog with 550 new x-ray sources, is discussed. Possible counterparts were found for greater than 95 percent of the Slew Survey based on positional coincidences and color-color diagnostics. The survey will be fully identified via upcoming radio and optical observations