A Framework to Assess the Resilience of Energy Systems Based on Quantitative Indicators

The “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package highlights the need to create a resilient critical energy infrastructure in the European Union. Resilience is an emerging term to describe the energy system’s ability to withstand shocks caused by natural hazards, technical accidents, or intentional threats. In this paper, a framework to assess the resilience of energy systems using quantitative indicators is presented. Two main groups of resilience indicators are proposed that depend on what is being measured within the energy system: capacity (attribute-based) indicators or performance in the presence of disruption (performance-based) indicators. This study concentrates on the first resilience phase, when the energy system has to absorb the impact of the shock. The approach considers various disruptions (both internal and external) as triggering events. There is a particular focus on future shocks affecting the prospective energy system, which will have changed with respect to the current one. The future foresight capabilities and potential of the selected resilience indicators are demonstrated using calculations for the Lithuanian energy system. The results revealed that the most important factors that impact energy system resilience are a rich electricity production mix and the diversification of both supply and production in the prospective energy system

Modelling of disturbance scenarios of energy security supply

Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas yra sukurti energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų matematinį modelį, kuriuo būtų galima modeliuoti įvairių galimų energetinių trikdžių scenarijus. Priklausomai nuo trikdžio sudėtingumo lygio jis gali neturėti visiškai jokios įtakos ir pasekmių arba priešingai – gali turėti labai didelę įtaką ir labai sunkias pasekmes energijos tiekimo saugumui. Todėl energetinio trikdžio įtaka ir pasekmės suskirstomi balais: nuo 0 (nėra pasekmių) iki 5 balų (labai sunkios pasekmės). Nagrinėjama to trikdžio įtaka įvairiems valstybės sektoriams: ekonominiui, socialiniui ir politiniui. Energetinio trikdžio įtaka ir sukeltos pasekmės ekonominiui, socialiniui ir politiniui sektoriams ir suprantamas kaip atskiras scenarijus. Energetiniam trikdžiui buvo suteikti parametrai ir su įvairiais parametrų rinkiniais sumodeliuoti 100 scenarijų. Iš tų scenarijų išrinktas pats tikėtiniausias, nustatyti sunkiausi (kritiniai) bei lengviausi (sukeliantys mažas pasekmes) scenarijai. Taip pat suskaičiuojamos tokių scenarijų tikimybės bei trikdžių pasirodymo tikimybės. Tam naudojami Markovo grandinės bei procesai ir tikimybiniai skirstiniai.The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.Vytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Assessment of energy security level variation in Lithuanian energy system

Straipsnyje pateikiama nauja metodika, skirta įvairių energetikos plėtros scenarijų energetinio saugumo įvertinimui ir palyginimui. Energetinis saugumas yra suprantamas ne tik kaip energetikos sistemos sugebėjimas aprūpinti vartotojus energija esant normalioms sąlygoms ir kainoms, bet ir kaip sistemos sugebėjimas pasipriešinti įvairiems trikdžiams, kuriuos gali sukelti tiek techninės bei ekonominės, tiek ir sociopolitinės ar geopolitinės grėsmės. Straipsnyje aptariami tikimybinis trikdžių susiformavimo ir trikdžių poveikio ekonominis-optimizacinis modeliai. Energetinis saugumas įvertinamas kiekybiškai atsižvelgiant į trikdžių sukeltus energijos kainos pokyčius ir vartotojams nepatiektą energiją. Sukurta metodika pritaikyta Lietuvos energetikos sistemos plėtros scenarijų energetinio saugumo įvertinimui. • Pirmasis scenarijus – Lietuvoje įgyvendinami tik suskystintų gamtinių dujų terminalo, elektros jungčių su Švedija ir Lenkija bei suplanuoti atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių plėtros projektai, tačiau didžioji dalis elektros energijos yra importuojama, ypač uždarius senuosius Lietuvos elektrinės blokus. • Antrasis scenarijus – uždaromi senieji Lietuvos elektrinės blokai yra keičiami naujais kombinuotojo ciklo blokais. • Trečiasis scenarijus – pradedama eksploatuoti nauja atominė elektrinė. • Ketvirtasis scenarijus – antrojo ir trečiojo scenarijų kombinacija: įvedamas vienas dujų kombinuotojo ciklo blokas, o vėliau pastatoma atominė elektrinė. Nepaisant didelių investicijų atominei elektrinei ir kombinuotojo ciklo blokui, ketvirtojo scenarijaus energetinis saugumas yra pats aukščiausiasThe paper presents a new methodology for the energy security assessment and comparison of various energy development scenarios. Energy security is understood not only as the ability of the energy system to supply energy to consumers under normal conditions and at reasonable prices but also as the system's ability to resit to various potential disturbances arising from both technical and economic as well as from socio-political and geopolitical threats. The paper presents a probabilistic model of disturbance formation and an economic-optimization model of disturbance effects. Energy security is evaluated quantitavely taking into account changes in energy prices and unsupplied energy to consumers caused by the disturbances. The developed methodology was applied for energy security assessment of Lithuanian energy system development scenarios.The fist scenario is characterized by the implementation of the liquefied natural gas terminal, electricity connections with Sweden and Poland as well as planned renewable energy development projects in the Lithuanian energy system. However, the majority of electricity is imported, especially after the shutdown of the old units at the Lithuanian power plant. Closed units at the Lithuanian power plant are replaced with new combined cycle units in the second scenario. A new nuclear power plant is placed in the third scenario. The combination of the second and third scenarios is done in the fourth scenario : a single gas combined cycle unit is installed and the nuclear power plant is placed afterward. Despite considerable investments in ther nuclear power plant and the combined cycle unit, energy security is highest in the fourth scenarioLietuvos energetikos institutasLietuvos energetikos institutas, [email protected]

Mathematical modelling of security of energy supply disturbance scenarios

Tomo antraštė: 6th annual conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2009), Kaunas, Lithuania, 28-29 May 2009Security of energy supply is extremely important for each country energy development. It depends not only on energy production and infrastructure but also on technical, economical, political and environmental impact. Energy security covers many fields, whereas threats to energy system can be various and consequences have impact to all areas of country’s economy. Mathematical model for consequence scenarios of energy supply potential disturbances, such as technical failure of energy system, natural disasters and catastrophes, terrorism acts, reduction of energy supply, economical blockades, economical and political crisis, etc. is analysed in the paper. Consequences of disturbances used in methodology are technical, economical and socio-political. Development of the model is based on mathematical methods (Markov chains and processes) analysing consequence scenarios of disturbances, performing probabilistic and frequency analysis. In the paper, developed mathematical model of energy system disturbance consequence analysis is presentedLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

The influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system

Tomo antraštė: 8th annual international conference of young scientists on energy issues (CYSENI 2011), Kaunas, Lithuania, 26-27 May 2011Energy plays an important role in the national security of any given country as a fuel to power the economic engine. Hence threats to energy security can also result from physical damage to the energy infrastructure either of the supplier, or of the importer as a result of natural events, misfortune, terrorism or warfare. The political and economic instability caused by war or other factors such as strike action can also prevent the proper functioning of the energy industry in a supplier country. All mentioned threats could cause energy supply disturbances affecting the whole energy system and infrastructure. The paper examines the influence of energy supply disturbances to energy system. A single integrated mathematical framework of the whole energy system comprising electricity, gas, and heat networks is formulated using a network flow concept. The mathematical model of energy system as a network defined by a collection of nodes and arcs with energy flowing from node to node along paths in the network and energy supply disturbances affecting this network is proposed. The paper focuses on three elements: energy supply (production), generation, and consumption. The influence of disturbances to energy system is analysed in respect of fuel accessibility, price changes of fuel, and energy, available generation capacity, meeting the demand of consumers. A numerical example of pilot case is presented to highlight the benefits of the methodology and illustrate how energy supply disturbances influence the network of energy systemLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Energy security assessment using partial equilibrium models [elektroninis išteklius]

Energy security refers to a resilient energy system. Threat analysis of energy system comprises technical, natural, political, geopolitical and other threats. Depending on their realization probability, threats can transform into one or another energy system disturbance. The paper presents a methodology which enables the investigation of energy system resistance to disturbances. One of the mathematical models used here is based on the energy system balance partial equilibrium equations and each disturbance development scenario is modelled in the deterministic way by optimization according to the minimal system costs. Another model is probabilistic and enables the simultaneous simulation of all possible disturbance development scenarios and the assessment of probability of potential consequences of the system. The paper focuses on the partial equilibrium model which is used for energy security assessment. An open source energy modelling system OSeMOSYS with modifications to suit the needs is used as the main tool for modelling the disturbed energy system. The developed model can define which energy system development scenario is optimal in terms of energy security and which is most resistant to the disturbances which are the realizations of threats. An example application of the reference energy system is made to explain the selected functional aspects of the modelLietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Analysis of Electricity and Natural Gas Security. A Case Study for Germany, France, Italy and Spain

This work aims to present an analysis of electricity and natural gas supply security in the four European Union countries with the highest level of consumption, namely Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The goal of the study is to use and adapt a set of 22 indicators for estimating the level of energy security. The evaluation of an index called “Energy Security Level”, measuring the overall energy security, is performed for the period 2006–2018 in order to compare its evolution in each of the analyzed countries. The application of the proposed indicator system demonstrates which measures weakened or strengthened energy security in the past. The analysis of the energy security level demonstrates that Germany and France perform better than Italy and Spain in terms of energy security assurance. The main factors for these differences are the rich energy mix for Germany and the massive presence of nuclear power in France. These two elements make German and French energy systems more resilient than the Italian and Spanish ones. The results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis demonstrate that the initial values of indicator weights have low impact on the uncertainty of energy security level estimations

Energy security assessment framework to support energy policy decisions

Security of energy supply plays a considerable role in the economic growth and social welfare in any country and is an integral part of the Energy Union (EU) strategy [1]. Unexpected disruptions in energy systems can have both an economic and social cost. As a result, energy security has become a key theme not only in the EU, but also worldwide long time ago. The latest strategic European Commission's (EC) policy documents [2] emphasize the importance of diversifying sources of energy and ensuring energy security as well. However, to support energy policy-making, the framework for energy security assessment can be seen as a necessary measure. The main objective of the presented framework is the assessment of energy security for analysed countries using energy system modelling approach. The framework is based on the mathematical model for future perspective of energy security coefficient (ESC) for different development scenarios of energy systems. It allows to assess energy security in terms of energy systems resilience to disruptions and consists of several steps, each of which can be described by the following models: probabilistic model for the formation of stochastic disruptions of energy system and their parameters; mathematical optimisation model for modelling of disrupted energy system scenarios; energy security metric employed to measure energy security via energy security coefficient, which indicates the level of energy system resilience to disruptions.[...]Lietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Methodology of the energy supply disturbances affecting energy system

Lietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Energy security level assessment technology

Lietuvos energetikos institutasMatematikos ir statistikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta