Epidemiology of seasonal coronaviruses: establishing the context for the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019

Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. Here we describe the epidemiology of seasonal CoVs (sCoVs) and other cocirculating viruses in the West of Scotland, United Kingdom. We analyzed routine diagnostic data for >70 000 episodes of respiratory illness tested molecularly for multiple respiratory viruses between 2005 and 2017. Statistical associations with patient age and sex differed between CoV-229E, CoV-OC43, and CoV-NL63. Furthermore, the timing and magnitude of sCoV outbreaks did not occur concurrently, and coinfections were not reported. With respect to other cocirculating respiratory viruses, we found evidence of positive, rather than negative, interactions with sCoVs. These findings highlight the importance of considering cocirculating viruses in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19. Further work is needed to establish the occurrence/degree of cross-protective immunity conferred across sCoVs and with COVID-19, as well as the role of viral coinfection in COVID-19 disease severity

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience

Reply to Li et al

No abstract available

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in primary care in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2018/19

2018/19 was the first season of introduction of a newly licensed adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aTIV) for adults aged 65 years and over and the sixth season in the roll-out of a childhood influenza vaccination programme with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The season saw mainly A(H1N1)pdm09 and latterly A(H3N2) circulation. End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates against laboratory confirmed influenza infection in primary care were calculated using the test negative case control method adjusting for key confounders. End-of-season aVE was 44.3% (95% CI: 26.8, 57.7) against all laboratory-confirmed influenza; 45.7% (95% CI: 26.0, 60.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 35.1% (95% CI: −3.7,59.3) against A(H3N2). Overall aVE was 49.9% (95%CI: −13.7, 77.9) for all those ≥ 65 years of age and 62.0% (95% CI: 3.4, 85.0) for those who received aTIV. Overall aVE for 2–17 year olds receiving LAIV was 48.6% (95% CI: −4.4, 74.7). The paper provides evidence of overall significant influenza VE in 2018/19, most notably against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, however, as seen in 2017/18, there was reduced, non-significant VE against A(H3N2). aTIV provided significant protection for those 65 years of age and over

Growing knowledge: an overview of Seed Plant diversity in Brazil

Abstract An updated inventory of Brazilian seed plants is presented and offers important insights into the country's biodiversity. This work started in 2010, with the publication of the Plants and Fungi Catalogue, and has been updated since by more than 430 specialists working online. Brazil is home to 32,086 native Angiosperms and 23 native Gymnosperms, showing an increase of 3% in its species richness in relation to 2010. The Amazon Rainforest is the richest Brazilian biome for Gymnosperms, while the Atlantic Rainforest is the richest one for Angiosperms. There was a considerable increment in the number of species and endemism rates for biomes, except for the Amazon that showed a decrease of 2.5% of recorded endemics. However, well over half of Brazillian seed plant species (57.4%) is endemic to this territory. The proportion of life-forms varies among different biomes: trees are more expressive in the Amazon and Atlantic Rainforest biomes while herbs predominate in the Pampa, and lianas are more expressive in the Amazon, Atlantic Rainforest, and Pantanal. This compilation serves not only to quantify Brazilian biodiversity, but also to highlight areas where there information is lacking and to provide a framework for the challenge faced in conserving Brazil's unique and diverse flora