Fungibility, Labels, and Consumption

Fungibility of money is a central principle in economics. It implies that any unit of money is substitutable for another and that the composition of income is irrelevant for consumption. We find in a field experiment that even in a simple, incentivized setup many subjects do not treat money as fungible. When a label is attached to a part of their budget, subjects change consumption according to the suggestion of the label. A controlled laboratory experiment confirms this result and further shows that subjects with lower mathematical abilities are more likely to violate fungibility. The findings lend support to behavioral models such as narrow bracketing or mental accounting. One implication of our results is that in-kind benefits distort consumption more than usually assumed.fungibility, In-kind benefits, mental accounting, inframarginal consumers, field experiment, laboratory experiment

Design of a Two-Receiver Interferometer on Motorized Tracks

A 94.8 GHz interferometric imaging system utilizing aperture synthesis and tomography is developed for the Center for Advanced Sensor and Communication Antennas. Whereas typical interferometer designs employ multiple antennas to synthesize an aperture for image reconstruction, this unique interferometer will reproduce a scene\u27s brightness temperature with only two antennas. To achieve this, the aperture synthesis is done with one antenna remaining stationary while the second antenna is moved at discrete increments along two controlled tracks. The two signals received by the antennas are cross-correlated to produce measured visibility function samples. The visibility samples reconstruct the scene brightness temperature through an inverse Fourier transform relationship

Spatially and Temporally Controlled Mechanical Signals to Direct Human Mesenchymal Stem Cell Behavior

In order to effectively incorporate stem cells into tissue engineering solutions, a deeper understanding of the microenvironment factors that influence their behaviors is necessary. Specifically, the inherent mechanics of the extracellular matrix (ECM) have been shown to profoundly effect multiple stem cell behaviors such as their morphology, proliferation, differentiation, and secretion of factors. The effect of matrix mechanics on stem cells has been investigated using a wide range of material systems; however, many of these systems lack the mechanical complexity that native tissues possess in terms of their spatial and temporal properties, as well as context (2D vs. 3D). In order to determine the effect of heterogeneous and dynamic mechanical signals on stem cells, a sequential crosslinking technique was developed that allowed for formation of hydrogels with a wide range in mechanical properties in terms of magnitude, context, and spatiotemporal presentation. Hydrogels with tunable mechanics were synthesized using methacrylate hyaluronic acid (MeHA) in a sequential process: 1) Michael-type `addition\u27 crosslinking using dithiothreitol to consume a fraction of the methacrylate groups, and 2) UV-initiated `radical\u27 crosslinking using controlled UV light exposure in the presence of a photoinitiator to consume unreacted methacrylates. Using this approach, we demonstrated local control of stem cell morphology, proliferation, and differentiation (adipogenesis and osteogenesis) in both patterned and gradient systems on 2D hydrogels. We further investigated the effects of mechanics in a 3D context using non-porous and porous presentations of controlled mechanics. In the non-porous system, cell behavior was shown to be dependent on mechanics as threshold responses were observed related to the ability of hMSCs to adopt a spread or rounded morphology within the hydrogel. In the 3D macroporous system, mechanics were spatially and temporally modulated and hMSC morphology, proliferation, differentiation, and secretion of angiogenic and cytokine factors were shown to be dependent on the local and temporal presentation of mechanical signals. This dissertation work emphasizes the importance of the magnitude, context, and presentation of mechanical signals and highlights this sequential crosslinking process as a model system for future investigations into heterogeneous, dynamic microenvironments, as well as a novel platform for developing future tissue engineering strategies

The Non-Use of Bayes Rule: Representative Evidence on Bounded Rationality

The ability to process new information and to compute conditional probabilities is crucial for making appropriate decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the capability of inferring conditional probabilities in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that only a small fraction of the population responds consistently with Bayes'' rule. Instead, most individuals either neglect the base probability, or the arrival of new information, in their responses. The probability to give normatively correctanswers decreases with the level of education.labour economics ;

Ann Rheum Dis

Objective This study was conducted with sera from patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and arthritis and lupus-like disease animal models to identify innate immune system-dependent and -independent autoantigens

The Non-Use of Bayes Rule: Representative Evidence on Bounded Rationality

The ability to process new information and to compute conditional probabilities iscrucial for making appropriate decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, weinvestigate the capability of inferring conditional probabilities in a representativesample of the German population. Our results show that only a small fraction ofthe population responds consistently with Bayes'' rule. Instead, most individualseither neglect the base probability, or the arrival of new information, in theirresponses. The probability to give normatively correct answers decreases with thelevel of education.labour market entry and occupational careers;

Biased Probability Judgment: Representative Evidence for Pervasiveness and Economic Outcomes

Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, andtherefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. Inthis paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representativesample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of therespondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findingsalso indicate that the observed biases are related to observed outcomes, whichindicates the policy relevance of our findings.education, training and the labour market;

Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample

Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.financial decision making, bounded rationality, probability judgment, gambler's fallacy, hot hand fallacy, representative design, long-term unemployment

Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles

Die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Geldpolitik in elf europäischen Ländern erhöhte die Bedeutung von konjunkturellen Frühindikatoren für dieses Gebiet. Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die Out-of-sample-Prognose verbessern. Unsere Untersuchung testet diese Anforderungen für Euroland-Daten. Dazu werden Methoden der Spektralanalyse, verschiedene Granger-Kausalitäts-Tests und Out-of-sample-Prognosen verwendet. Nur wenige Indikatoren bestehen die Tests auf die geforderten Eigenschaften, wobei die nichtmonetären Indikatoren besser abschneiden. The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to Euroland data. We use frequency domain analysis, Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only a few indicators pass all tests, while the non-monetary indicators perform best.