Risk Evaluation of Invasive Species Transport Across the U.S.-Canada Border in Washington State

Non-indigenous invasive species (NIS) create a multitude of undesired economic, social, and ecological effects. Financial costs include reduced revenue and property value, and prevention and control expenditures (Pimentel et al., 2000). Social impacts include reduction in preferred uses including cultural and recreational activities, as well as loss of valued aesthetic qualities and civic pride in the surrounding ecological landscape (Bureau of Land Management, 2006). Ecological impacts include changes in soil and water quality, alteration of habitats, and displacement of native species (Elton, 1958)

San Francisco Delta Risk Assessment Year 1 Report Appendices

The Relative Contributions of Contaminants to Environmental Risk in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: Progress Report Year 1: Appendices Prepared for: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Prepared by: Wayne G. Landis, Steven R. Eikenbary, Ethan A. Brown, Colter P. Lemons, Emma E. Sharpe, and April J. Markiewicz Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment Western Washington University Bellingham, WA 98225 June 30, 202

San Francisco Delta Risk Assessment Year 1 Report

The Relative Contributions of Contaminants to Environmental Risk in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: Progress Report Year 1 Prepared for: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Prepared by: Wayne G. Landis, Steven R. Eikenbary, Ethan A. Brown, Colter P. Lemons, Emma E. Sharpe, and April J. Markiewicz Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment Western Washington University Bellingham, WA 98225 June 30, 202

Dataset for the Environmental Risk Assessment of Chlorpyrifos to Chinook Salmon in four Rivers of Washington State, United States

Data files available below. This data set is in support of Landis et al (in press) The integration of chlorpyrifos acetylcholinesterase inhibition, water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration into a regional scale multiple stressor risk assessment estimating risk to Chinook salmon in four rivers in Washington State, USA. DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4199. In this research We estimated the risk to populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) due to chlorpyrifos (CH), water temperature (WT) and dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) in four watersheds in Washington State, USA. The watersheds included the Nooksack and Skagit Rivers in the Northern Puget Sound, the Cedar River in the Seattle -Tacoma corridor, and the Yakima River, a tributary of the Columbia River. The Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) was used to conduct this ecological risk assessment and was modified to contain an AChE inhibition pathway parameterized using data from chlorpyrifos toxicity datasets. The completed BN-RRM estimated risk at a population scale to Chinook salmon employing classical matrix modeling run up to 50 year timeframes. There were 4 primary conclusions drawn from the model building process and the risk calculations. First, the incorporation of an AChE inhibition pathway and the output from a population model can be combined with environmental factors in a quantitative fashion. Second, the probability of not meeting the management goal of no loss to the population ranges from 65 to 85 percent. Environmental conditions contributed to a larger proportion of the risk compared to chlorpyrifos. Third, the sensitivity analysis describing the influence of the variables on the predicted risk varied depending on seasonal conditions. In the summer, WT and DO were more influential that CH. In the winter, when the seasonal conditions are more benign, CH was the driver. Fourth, in order to reach the management-goal, we calculated the conditions that would increase in juvenile survival, adult survival, and a reduction in toxicological effects. The same process in this example should be applicable to the inclusion of multiple pesticides and to more descriptive population models such as those describing metapopulations. This research was supported by USEPA STAR Grant RD-83579501. Excel spreadsheet, model in Netica

Integration of Chlorpyrifos Acetylcholinesterase Inhibition, Water Temperature, and Dissolved Oxygen Concentration into a Regional Scale Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment Estimating Risk to Chinook Salmon

We estimated the risk to populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) due to chlorpyrifos (CH), water temperature (WT), and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) in 4 watersheds in Washington State, USA. The watersheds included the Nooksack and Skagit Rivers in the Northern Puget Sound, the Cedar River in the Seattle–Tacoma corridor, and the Yakima River, a tributary of the Columbia River. The Bayesian network relative risk model (BN‐RRM) was used to conduct this ecological risk assessment and was modified to contain an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition pathway parameterized using data from CH toxicity data sets. The completed BN‐RRM estimated risk at a population scale to Chinook salmon employing classical matrix modeling runs up to 50‐y timeframes. There were 3 primary conclusions drawn from the model‐ building process and the risk calculations. First, the incorporation of an AChE inhibition pathway and the output from a population model can be combined with environmental factors in a quantitative fashion. Second, the probability of not meeting the management goal of no loss to the population ranges from 65% to 85%. Environmental conditions contributed to a larger proportion of the risk compared to CH. Third, the sensitivity analysis describing the influence of the variables on the predicted risk varied depending on seasonal conditions. In the summer, WT and DO were more influential than CH. In the winter, when the seasonal conditions are more benign, CH was the driver. Fourth, in order to reach the management goal, we calculated the conditions that would increase juvenile survival, adult survival, and a reduction in toxicological effects. The same process in this example should be applicable to the inclusion of multiple pesticides and to more descriptive population models such as those describing metapopulations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:28–42. © 2019 SETA

Black Swans, Adaptive Managment and the Future of the Salish Sea

The restoration and management of the Salish Sea, the classic large-scale system, without a structured decision making process is unworkable. Given the alterations in the environment induced by climate change, alterations in landuse, and changes in technology the future is full of Black Swans. The change in the goalposts for remediation and restoration brought about by changing cultural norms is the definition of Wicked Problems, those problems that do not have a final management solution. Adaptive management is often hailed as the process for the management of landscapes. Unfortunately the analytical tools necessary to implement an adaptive management approach have not developed to match the need. One of the assumptions of AM is that testable predictions are made that then can be tested by before and after management implementation (BACI) design. BACI designs have a number of assumptions, one of which is that natural factors are in a natural equilibrium be it static or dynamic. At a scale for large-scale restoration this assumption will be violated given climate change and technological innovation. Ecological risk assessment or derived approaches such as a probabilistic pressure assessments offer an alternate means of making predictions that embraces stakeholder values, environmental change and the associated uncertainty. Incorporating Bayesian networks into the relative risk model (BN-RRM) allows probabilistic predictions to be made regarding risks due to specific stressors. Management options can be evaluated and the magnitude of change in risk to endpoints evaluated. Sensitivity analysis points to the variables most important to monitor and with what degree of accuracy and precision. The models are updateable as new information is obtained from field monitoring or related research. If the goalposts move because of changing cultural values or new information, the distance to these new expectations can be calculated and new solutions proposed. We will demonstrate how the management scheme works with examples from contaminated sites, non-point contamination and invasive species

Integrating global climate change stressors and human health and well-being endpoints into a Bayesian network relative risk model of the Skagit River

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have widespread impacts on future ecosystem services in the Salish Sea. In this research, we focused on the question of how stressors generated by GCC affect contaminant toxicity to marine species in the Skagit River, WA. Specifically we assessed how those combined effects potentially influence risks to the river’s ecosystem services that, in turn, impact human health and well-being. To answer this question, we are conducting an ecological risk assessment using the Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM). It is a quantitative, probability-based model that calculates complex relationships between ecological variables to provide estimates of risk to valued receptors (endpoints). The Skagit River study area contains important habitats for native salmon species and bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). These species provide numerous ecological, economic, cultural, and spiritual benefits to humans. Its floodplains also provide fertile, highly productive croplands, making it an important agricultural center in the region. Pesticide use on croplands in the watershed currently pose risks to these non-target species that may increase in severity with GCC. Increasing water temperature, decreasing dissolved oxygen levels, and changes in seawater pH are of particular concern, as are changing river and stream flows, increasing storm event frequency and intensity, and sea level rise. These stressors have potential to impact human health and well-being endpoints such as human health, water quality, salmon fisheries, tribal cultural and community health indicators, recreation areas, tourism, agriculture, boating, fishing, and shellfishing. The BN-RRM will enable us to calculate the risks posed by pesticides on these select endpoints in the Skagit River watershed due to climate change. Once constructed the BN-RRM can also serve as a useful tool for resource managers and decision-makers to direct future research efforts in the watershed, as well as in other watersheds in the Salish Sea region

A test of the community conditioning hypothesis: Persistence of effects in model ecological structures dosed with the jet fuel jp-8

The foundation of the community conditioning hypothesis, the persistence of effects, was tested in a series of microcosm experiments. Experiments were conducted with the water-soluble fraction of the turbine fuel JP-8 using the standard protocols for the standardized aquatic microcosm (SAM). A repeat trial was conducted using the SAM protocol but with a 126-d test period, twice the standard duration. The results were examined using a variety of conventional univariate, multivariate, and graphical techniques. The principal conclusions were as follows. Effects are persistent in these model ecological systems long after the degradation of the toxicant. Patterns of impacts are detectable at concentrations 15 times lower than an experimentally derived single-species EC50. The replicate experiments are not replicable in the specific, but the broad pattern of the disruption of algal- herbivore dynamics followed by more subtle effects are consistently repeated. The durability of the indirect effects and therefore the information about historical events appears to be a consistent feature of these microcosm systems. The identity of the treatment groups persists. The critical features of the community conditioning hypothesis—persistence of information within ecologicalsystems and the reappearance of patterns and therefore the nonequilibrium dynamics—are again confirmed. The implications of these findings for environmental toxicology, monitoring, and ecological risk assessment are discussed