Host Range and Emerging and Reemerging Pathogens

Emerging and reemerging species of human pathogens are associated with a broad range of nonhuman hosts

Ecological and taxonomic variation among human RNA viruses

AbstractOnly a minority of RNA viruses that can infect humans are capable of spreading in human populations independently of a zoonotic reservoir. This is especially true of vector-borne RNA viruses; the majority of these are not transmissible (via the vector) between humans at all. Understanding the biology underlying this observation will help us evaluate the public health risk associated with novel vector-borne RNA viruses

What does equitable global health research and delivery look like?:Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa (TIBA) partnership as a case study

There is a current global push to identify and implement best practice for delivering maximum impact from development research in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a model of research and capacity building that challenges traditional approaches taken by western funders in Africa. Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa (TIBA) is a global health research and delivery partnership with a focus on strengthening health systems to combat neglected tropical diseases, malaria and emerging pathogens in Africa. Partners are academic and research institutions based in Ghana, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa and the UK. Fifteen other African countries have participated in TIBA activities. With a starting budget of under £7 million, and in just 4 years, TIBA has had a verified impact on knowledge, policy practice and capacity building, and on national and international COVID-19 responses in multiple African countries. TIBA’s impact is shown in context-specific metrics including: strengthening the evidence base underpinning international policy on neglected tropical diseases; 77% of research publications having Africa-based first and/or last authors; postgraduate, postdoctoral and professional training; career progression for African researchers and health professionals with no net brain drain from participating countries; and supporting African institutions. Training in real-time SARS-CoV-2 viral genome sequencing provided new national capabilities and capacities that contributed to both national responses and global health security through variant detection and tracking. TIBA’s experience confirms that health research for Africa thrives when the agenda and priorities are set in Africa, by Africans, and the work is done in Africa. Here, we share 10 actionable recommendations for researchers and funders from our lessons learnt

The role of the environment in dynamics of antibiotic resistance in humans and animals:A modelling study

Antibiotic resistance is transmitted between animals and humans either directly or indirectly, through transmission via the environment. However, little is known about the contribution of the environment to resistance epidemiology. Here, we use a mathematical model to study the effect of the environment on human resistance levels and the impact of interventions to reduce antibiotic consumption in animals. We developed a model of resistance transmission with human, animal, and environmental compartments. We compared the model outcomes under different transmission scenarios, conducted a sensitivity analysis, and investigated the impacts of curtailing antibiotic usage in animals. Human resistance levels were most sensitive to parameters associated with the human compartment (rate of loss of resistance from humans) and with the environmental compartment (rate of loss of environmental resistance and rate of environment-to-human transmission). Increasing environmental transmission could lead to increased or reduced impact of curtailing antibiotic consumption in animals on resistance in humans. We highlight that environment–human sharing of resistance can influence the epidemiology of resistant bacterial infections in humans and reduce the impact of interventions that curtail antibiotic consumption in animals. More data on resistance in the environment and frequency of human–environment transmission is crucial to understanding antibiotic resistance dynamics

Efficacy of praziquantel has been maintained over four decades (from 1977 to 2018):A systematic review and meta-analysis of factors influence its efficacy

BackgroundThe antihelminthic drug praziquantel has been used as the drug of choice for treating schistosome infection for more than 40 years. Although some epidemiological studies have reported low praziquantel efficacy in cure rate (CR) and/or egg reduction rate (ERR), there is no consistent robust evidence of the development of schistosome resistance to praziquantel (PZQ). There is need to determine factors that lead to variable treatment CR and/or ERR. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to review CR and ERR as well as identify their predictors.Methodology/principal findingsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, a literature review was conducted using Biosis Citation Index, Data Citation Index, MEDLINE, and Web of Science Core Collection all of which were provided through Web of Science. Alongside these, EMBASE, and CAB abstracts were searched to identify relevant articles. Random effect meta-regression models were used to identify the factors that influence CR and/or ERR by considering differences in host characteristics and drug dose. In total, 12,127 potential articles were screened and 146 eligible articles (published from 1979 to 2020) were identified and included for the meta-analysis. We found that there has been no significant reduction in CR or ERR over the study period. The results showed more variability in CR, compared with ERR which was more consistent and remained high. The results showed a positive effect of "PZQ treatment dose" with the current recommended dose of 40 mg/kg body weight achieving 57% to 88% CR depending on schistosome species, age of participants, and number of parasitological samples used for diagnosis, and ERR of 95%.Conclusions/significanceBased on a review of over 40 years of research there is no evidence to support concerns about schistosomes developing resistance to PZQ. These results indicate that PZQ remains effective in treating schistosomiasis

Predictors of human-infective RNA virus discovery in the United States, China, and Africa, an ecological study

BACKGROUND: The variation in the pathogen type as well as the spatial heterogeneity of predictors make the generality of any associations with pathogen discovery debatable. Our previous work confirmed that the association of a group of predictors differed across different types of RNA viruses, yet there have been no previous comparisons of the specific predictors for RNA virus discovery in different regions. The aim of the current study was to close the gap by investigating whether predictors of discovery rates within three regions—the United States, China, and Africa—differ from one another and from those at the global level. METHODS: Based on a comprehensive list of human-infective RNA viruses, we collated published data on first discovery of each species in each region. We used a Poisson boosted regression tree (BRT) model to examine the relationship between virus discovery and 33 predictors representing climate, socio-economics, land use, and biodiversity across each region separately. The discovery probability in three regions in 2010–2019 was mapped using the fitted models and historical predictors. RESULTS: The numbers of human-infective virus species discovered in the United States, China, and Africa up to 2019 were 95, 80, and 107 respectively, with China lagging behind the other two regions. In each region, discoveries were clustered in hotspots. BRT modelling suggested that in all three regions RNA virus discovery was better predicted by land use and socio-economic variables than climatic variables and biodiversity, although the relative importance of these predictors varied by region. Map of virus discovery probability in 2010–2019 indicated several new hotspots outside historical high-risk areas. Most new virus species since 2010 in each region (6/6 in the United States, 19/19 in China, 12/19 in Africa) were discovered in high-risk areas as predicted by our model. CONCLUSIONS: The drivers of spatiotemporal variation in virus discovery rates vary in different regions of the world. Within regions virus discovery is driven mainly by land-use and socio-economic variables; climate and biodiversity variables are consistently less important predictors than at a global scale. Potential new discovery hotspots in 2010–2019 are identified. Results from the study could guide active surveillance for new human-infective viruses in local high-risk areas. FUNDING: FFZ is funded by the Darwin Trust of Edinburgh (https://darwintrust.bio.ed.ac.uk/). MEJW has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 874735 (VEO) (https://www.veo-europe.eu/)

Explaining Observed Infection and Antibody Age-Profiles in Populations with Urogenital Schistosomiasis

Urogenital schistosomiasis is a tropical disease infecting more than 100 million people in sub-Saharan Africa. Individuals in endemic areas endure repeated infections with long-lived schistosome worms, and also encounter larval and egg stages of the life cycle. Protective immunity against infection develops slowly with age. Distinctive age-related patterns of infection and specific antibody responses are seen in endemic areas, including an infection ‘peak shift’ and a switch in the antibody types produced. Deterministic models describing changing levels of infection and antibody with age in homogeneously exposed populations were developed to identify the key mechanisms underlying the antibody switch, and to test two theories for the slow development of protective immunity: that (i) exposure to dying (long-lived) worms, or (ii) experience of a threshold level of antigen, is necessary to stimulate protective antibody. Different model structures were explored, including alternative stages of the life cycle as the main antigenic source and the principal target of protective antibody, different worm survival distributions, antigen thresholds and immune cross-regulation. Models were identified which could reproduce patterns of infection and antibody consistent with field data. Models with dying worms as the main source of protective antigen could reproduce all of these patterns, but so could some models with other continually-encountered life stages acting as the principal antigen source. An antigen threshold enhanced the ability of the model to replicate these patterns, but was not essential for it to do so. Models including either non-exponential worm survival or cross-regulation were more likely to be able to reproduce field patterns, but neither of these was absolutely required. The combination of life cycle stage stimulating, and targeted by, antibody was found to be critical in determining whether models could successfully reproduce patterns in the data, and a number of combinations were excluded as being inconsistent with field data