Preservation of External Rays in non-Autonomous Iteration

We consider the dynamics arising from the iteration of an arbitrary sequence of polynomials with uniformly bounded degrees and coefficients and show that, as parameters vary within a single hyperbolic component in parameter space, certain properties of the corresponding Julia sets are preserved. In particular, we show that if the sequence is hyperbolic and all the Julia sets are connected, then the whole basin at infinity moves holomorphically. This extends also to the landing points of external rays and the resultant holomorphic motion of the Julia sets coincides with that obtained earlier using grand orbits. In addition, if a finite set of external rays separate the Julia set for a particular parameter value, then the rays with the same external angles separate the Julia set for every parameter in the same hyperbolic component

Conditions for rapid mixing of parallel and simulated tempering on multimodal distributions

We give conditions under which a Markov chain constructed via parallel or simulated tempering is guaranteed to be rapidly mixing, which are applicable to a wide range of multimodal distributions arising in Bayesian statistical inference and statistical mechanics. We provide lower bounds on the spectral gaps of parallel and simulated tempering. These bounds imply a single set of sufficient conditions for rapid mixing of both techniques. A direct consequence of our results is rapid mixing of parallel and simulated tempering for several normal mixture models, and for the mean-field Ising model.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP555 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Survivability modeling for cyber-physical systems subject to data corruption

Cyber-physical critical infrastructures are created when traditional physical infrastructure is supplemented with advanced monitoring, control, computing, and communication capability. More intelligent decision support and improved efficacy, dependability, and security are expected. Quantitative models and evaluation methods are required for determining the extent to which a cyber-physical infrastructure improves on its physical predecessors. It is essential that these models reflect both cyber and physical aspects of operation and failure. In this dissertation, we propose quantitative models for dependability attributes, in particular, survivability, of cyber-physical systems. Any malfunction or security breach, whether cyber or physical, that causes the system operation to depart from specifications will affect these dependability attributes. Our focus is on data corruption, which compromises decision support -- the fundamental role played by cyber infrastructure. The first research contribution of this work is a Petri net model for information exchange in cyber-physical systems, which facilitates i) evaluation of the extent of data corruption at a given time, and ii) illuminates the service degradation caused by propagation of corrupt data through the cyber infrastructure. In the second research contribution, we propose metrics and an evaluation method for survivability, which captures the extent of functionality retained by a system after a disruptive event. We illustrate the application of our methods through case studies on smart grids, intelligent water distribution networks, and intelligent transportation systems. Data, cyber infrastructure, and intelligent control are part and parcel of nearly every critical infrastructure that underpins daily life in developed countries. Our work provides means for quantifying and predicting the service degradation caused when cyber infrastructure fails to serve its intended purpose. It can also serve as the foundation for efforts to fortify critical systems and mitigate inevitable failures --Abstract, page iii

Improved Nutation Damper for a Spin-Stabilized Spacecraft

A document proposes an improved liquid- ring nutation damper for a spin-stabilized spacecraft. The improvement addresses the problem of accommodating thermal expansion of the damping liquid. Heretofore, the problem has been solved by either (1) filling the ring completely with liquid and accommodating expansion by attaching a bellows or (2) partially filling the ring and accepting the formation of bubbles. The disadvantage of (1) is that a bellows is expensive and may not be reliable; the disadvantage of (2) is that bubbles can cause fluid lockup and consequent loss of damping. In the improved damper, the ring would be nearly completely filled with liquid, and expansion would be accommodated, but not by a bellows. Instead, an escape tube would be attached to the ring. The escape tube would be positioned and oriented so that the artificial gravitation and the associated buoyant force generated by the spin of the spacecraft would cause the bubbles to migrate toward the tip of the tube. In addition, when the spacecraft was on the launch pad, the escape tube would be at the top of the ring, so that bubbles would rise into the tube