Analysis of age as a factor in NASA astronaut selection and career landmarks

<div><p>NASA’s periodic selection of astronauts is a highly selective process accepting applications from the general population, wherein the mechanics of selection are not made public. This research was an effort to determine if biases (specifically age) exist in the process and, if so, at which points they might manifest. Two sets of analyses were conducted. The first utilized data requested via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on NASA astronaut applicants for the 2009 and 2013 selection years. Using a series of multinomial and logistic regressions, the data were analyzed to uncover whether age of the applicants linearly or nonlinearly affected their likelihood of receiving an invitation, as well as their likelihood of being selected into the astronaut program. The second used public data on age at selection and age at other career milestones for every astronaut selected from 1959 to 2013 to analyze trends in age over time using ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression and Pearson’s correlation. The results for the FOIA data revealed a nonlinear relationship between age and receiving an interview, as well as age and selection into the astronaut program, but the most striking observation was the loss of age diversity at each stage of selection. Applicants younger or older than approximately 40 years were significantly less likely to receive invitations for interviews and were significantly less likely to be selected as an astronaut. Analysis of the public-source data for all selections since the beginning of the astronaut program revealed significant age trends over time including a gradual increase in selectee age and decreased tenure at NASA after last flight, with average age at retirement steady over the entire history of the astronaut program at approximately 48 years.</p></div

Ages of NASA astronauts at last flight versus year of selection (1959–2013).

<p>Dashed vertical lines represent each selection group in time, the mean age is plotted in black, and 95% confidence intervals are shaded in gray. A notable outlier (upper left) is Senator John Glenn, who flew on STS-95 in 1998 at the age of 77. John Glenn’s 1998 flight is included in the graph for historic accuracy, but it was not used for last flight analysis due to significant leverage on results as an extreme outlier.</p

Predicted probabilities of final interview invitation across quadratic age (2009 data).

<p>All other covariates were held at their means. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

Maximum entry ages for federal operational positions.

<p>Maximum entry ages for federal operational positions.</p

Logistic regression predicting selection for interview among HQ applicants (2013).

<p>Logistic regression predicting selection for interview among HQ applicants (2013).</p

Descriptive statistics of age milestones for NASA astronauts over all selections (1959–2013).

<p>Descriptive statistics of age milestones for NASA astronauts over all selections (1959–2013).</p