Beyond the Australian Debt Dreamtime: Recognising Imbalances

Sadly, all the efforts of a generation of Australian men and women have only made them more indebted to the rest of the world. Australia’s external net wealth is negative, soon passing minus $900b on an accelerating downward trajectory. This ongoing dissipation of national resources is unsustainable. Australians live in a debt dreamtime, one from which the rest of the world has been rudely awakened. After years of inadequate policies, the nation has a large external debt and significant government exposures. Servicing pressures are growing as rising uncertainties permeate global credit markets. Reserve Bank policies are worsening Australia’s external position and needlessly driving up internal costs. Major policy rethinking is warranted. Relevant issues are still little considered, crowded out of dialogues by comforting myths that accompany the Australian Debt Dreamtime. Imbalances need proper recognition with new approaches and strategies developed. Automatic corrections will not occur as history and current overseas experiences demonstrate. A real awakening, improved positioning and a touch of luck are required if Australians are to avoid being seriously impoverished by world events and their own confused Dreaming.balance of payments, monetary policy, open economy, government, Australia

Asleep at the wheel: the real interest rate experience in Australia

Real interest rates have been unsustainably high in Australia for a generation, yet it seems no one has noticed. A most important change has gone unmonitored. Historically high real interest rate, examined here in terms of the variable housing loan rate, now exceed increases in the returns from production and complicate remediation of pervasive problems. Significant external problems have arisen as the nation has expended more than it produced, and borrowed to service the gap. Issues raised in this paper deserve critical attention, and new policies. Constructive dialogues and new thinking are needed if Australia is to successfully move beyond current debts and difficulties.

A Practical Introduction to Stata

This document provides an introduction to the use of Stata. It is designed to be an overview rather than a comprehensive guide, aimed at covering the basic tools necessary for econometric analysis. Topics covered include data management, graphing, regression analysis, binary outcomes, ordered and multinominal regression, time series and panel data. Stata commands are shown in the context of practical examples.Stata, econometric analysis, data management, regression analysis, graphing, binary outcomes

Articulating Principals, Agents and Institutions in the EU

Principal agent problems arise frequently in situations of interdependence. Europe, with its various arrangements, is replete with principal agent problems that are mediated by institutions at various levels. While issues of water and land can provide a convenient focus, the essential problem is a deeper one. Decision making in principal agent situations has traditionally been considered in only a limited way. Current agency approaches seek to orient the interests of agents to those of the principal. More generalised formulations experience difficulties in reconciling interests. This is apparent not only in two-party forms but even more so in three-part(y) ones. In n-party environments things may appear to become simpler as n increases, but the problem may remain. An innovative exploration of a principal-agent situation which uses object-based concepts and simulations is presented in this paper. Different patterns of agent commitment are seen when it is applied to a European context. Suitable reconceptualisation of agency theory appears to have wide implications and applications. Its further development will allow more adequate specification of agency situations with immediate implications for policy and practice not only in Europe but in nations and regions around the world.

State violence and the colonial roots of collusion in Northern Ireland

This article considers the nature of collusion between the British state and loyalist paramilitary organisations during the conflict in Northern Ireland in the context of British counterinsurgency theory and practices in prior colonial campaigns. It briefly outlines the nature, pattern and logic of collusion in Northern Ireland before examining some of the key works of British counterinsurgency theorists – Charles Callwell, Charles Gwynn and Frank Kitson – reflecting on earlier imperial experiences. Collusion is understood as an expedient coercive state practice, premised on a ‘doctrine of necessity’, designed to remove ‘enemies’ and induce fear in a target population via a strategy of assassination in which the appearance of adherence to the rule of law is a political end shaping the specific forms of state violence involved. Such a practice, the author argues, is not an aberration in the tradition of British state counterinsurgency violence, it is exemplary. </jats:p

The Dilemma of Democracy: Collusion and the State of Exception

<p>In what sense might the authoritarian practices and suspension of legal norms as means to combat the supposed threat of “terrorism,” within and by contemporary western democratic states, be understood as a problem <em>of </em>and not <em>for </em>democracy? That question lies at the heart of this article. It will be explored through the theoretical frame offered in the work of Giorgio Agamben on the <em>state of exception</em> and the example of British state collusion in non-state violence in the North of Ireland.</p> <p>The North of Ireland provides a particularly illuminating case study to explore how the state of exception—the suspension of law and of legal norms and the exercise of arbitrary decision—has increasingly become a paradigm of contemporary governance. In so doing it brings into question not only the traditional conceptualization of the “democratic dilemma” of liberal democratic states “confronting terrorism” but also challenge dominant paradigms of transitional justice that generally fail to problematize the liberal democratic order.</p> <p>After outlining Agamben’s understanding of the state of exception <em></em>the article will chart the development of “exceptional measures” and the creation of a permanent state of emergency in the North, before critically exploring the role of collusion as an aspect of counter-insurgency during the recent conflict. The paper will argue that the normalization of exceptional measures, combined with the need to delimit the explicitness of constitutional provision for the same, provided a context for the emergence of collusion as a paradigm case for the increasing replication of colonial practices into the core activity of the contemporary democratic state.</p

Still Unequal at Birth: Birth Weight, Socio-economic Status and Outcomes at Age 9

The prevalence of low birth weight is an important aspect of public health which has been linked to increased risk of infant death, increased cost of care, and a range of later life outcomes. Using data from a new Irish cohort study, I document the relationship between birth weight and socio-economic status. The association of maternal education with birth weight does not appear to be due to the timing of birth or complications during pregnancy, even controlling for a wide range of background characteristics. However, results do suggest intergenerational persistence in the transmission of poor early life conditions. Birth weight predicts a number of outcomes at age 9, including test scores, hospital stays and health. An advantage of the data is that I am able to control for a number of typically unmeasured variables. I determine whether parental investments (as measured by the quality of interaction with the child, parenting style, or school quality) mediate the association between birth weight and later indicators. For test scores, there is evidence of non-linearity, and boys are more adversely affected than girls. I also consider whether there are heterogeneous effects by ability using quantile regression. These results are consistent with a literature which finds that there is a causal relationship between early life conditions and later outcomes