RapidTox Application to Support Evaluation of Chemical Toxicity to Listed Species

Presentation to the Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure monthly science webinar November 2022 Search for CCTE records in EPA’s Science Inventory by typing in the title at this link. https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25</p

Fig 5 shows a depiction of the 2006 Nigerian avian H5N1 influenza outbreak in 2006.

<p>The data shown are structurally similar to that the data acquired from the EMPRES-i system developed by the UN-FAO. Inset is a histogram of the outbreak frequency, showing a peak at approximately 40 days post the initial identification of the disease in Kaduna, Nigeria.</p

Surveillance architecture optimized for A) probability of detection, and B) speed of detection in Nigeria.

<p>When optimized for probability of detection, surveillance stations are dispersed throughout the country. When optimized for speed of detection, two groups surveillance stations form, one centered on the large population of animals in the north and one centered on the large population of animals in the south.</p

The impact on the total number of chickens that died from infection as the two most significant simulation parameters are varied, the time before initiation of culling vs. the number of infected animals required to trigger the onset of culling.

<p>The maps are color-coded for the number of chickens dead from infection.</p

Local Government Associations (LGA) over all simulation runs for the average number of times that each LGA was infected for all the simulations and the average first day a LGA becomes infected for each region where the epidemic is started.

<p>Epidemic starts in region A) 1. B) 2, C) 3, D) 4, E) 5, F) 6.</p

Shown are the distribution of the population of people (a), Chickens (b), backyard ducks (c) and migratory birds (d) used in these simulations.

<p>Colors are relative and intended to illustrate the population distribution for specific species, with darker indicating greater numbers. The human population is shown progressing from blue to red, with red indicating greater numbers. Data was gathered largely from United Nations sources and was processed to allow association with specific Nigerian local government associations (LGAs).</p

Nigeria was divided into six regions that were used in the experiment design to test for geographic differences for the start of epidemics.

<p>Nigeria was divided into six regions that were used in the experiment design to test for geographic differences for the start of epidemics.</p