Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms

We present evidence on the cyclical behavior of small versus large manufacturing firms, and on the response of the two classes of firms to monetary policy. Our goal is to take a step toward quantifying the role of credit market imperfections in the business cycle and in the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that, following tight money, small firms sales decline at a faster pace than large firm sales for a period of more than two years. Further, bank lending to small firms contracts, while it actually rises for large firms. Monetary policy indicators tied to the performance of banking, such as M2, have relatively greater predictive power for small firms than for large. Finally, small firms are more sensitive than are large to lagged movements in GNP. Considering that small firms overall are a non-trivial component of the economy, we interpret these results as suggestive of the macroeconomic relevance of credit market imperfections.

External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator

We develop a small open economy macroeconomic model where financial conditions influence aggregate behavior. We use this model to explore the connection between the exchange rate regime and financial distress. We show that fixed exchange rates exacerbate financial crises by tieing the hands of the monetary authorities. We then investigate the quantitative significance by first calibrating the model to Korean data and then showing that it does a reasonably good job of matching the Korean experience during its recent financial crisis. In particular, the model accounts well for the sharp increase in lending rates and the large drop in output, investment and productivity during the 1997-1998 episode. We then perform some counterfactual exercises to illustrate the quantitative significance of fixed versus floating rates both for macroeconomic performance and for welfare. Overall, these exercises imply that welfare losses following a financial crisis are significantly larger under fixed exchange rates relative to flexible exchange rates.

Choice of Measurement Sets in Qubit Tomography

Optimal generalized measurements for state estimation are well understood. However, practical quantum state tomography is typically performed using a fixed set of projective measurements and the question of how to choose these measurements has been largely unexplored in the literature. In this work we develop theoretical asymptotic bounds for the average fidelity of pure qubit tomography using measurement sets whose axes correspond to vertices of Platonic solids. We also present complete simulations of maximum likelihood tomography for mixed qubit states using the Platonic solid measurements. We show that overcomplete measurement sets can be used to improve the accuracy of tomographic reconstructions.Comment: 13 Pages, 6 figure

External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator

We develop a small open economy macroeconomic model where financial conditions influence aggregate behavior. We use this model to explore the connection between the exchange rate regime and financial distress. We show that fixed exchange rates exacerbate financial crises by tying the hands of the monetary authorities. We then investigate the quantitative significance by first calibrating the model to Korean data and then showing that it does a reasonably good job of matching the Korean experience during its recent financial crisis. In particular, the model accounts well for the sharp increase in lending rates and the large drop in output, investment and productivity during the 1997-1998 episode. We then perform some counterfactual exercises to illustrate the quantitative significance of fixed versus floating rates both for macroeconomic performance and for welfare. Overall, these exercises imply that welfare losses following a financial crisis are significantly larger under fixed exchange rates relative to flexible exchange rates

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Factors Influencing Colony Attendance by Northern Fulmars in the Canadian Arctic

The northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) is a common seabird of the North Atlantic Ocean and marine areas of eastern Nunavut. We studied attendance patterns of fulmars at two colonies in the Canadian High Arctic to assess variation in attendance at high latitudes, to compare these patterns to those found for fulmars breeding at colonies to the south, and to determine how weather conditions and breeding status might influence attendance. Colony attendance patterns shared similarities across the species’ range, although local variation in the timing of food supplies may explain differences in the seasonal timing of peak counts at colonies. Stronger winds and extreme inclement weather resulted in lower counts of birds at colonies. Seasonal and daily variation in attendance was attributable to differences in the numbers of failed breeders or non-breeding birds. Changes toward earlier breakup and reduced extent of sea ice should lead to earlier peaks and continued short periodicities in colony attendance cycles of Arctic fulmars.Le fulmar boréal (Fulmarus glacialis) est un oiseau marin courant du nord de l’océan Atlantique et des régions marines de l’est du Nunavut. Nous avons étudié les tendances de fréquentation des fulmars à deux colonies situées dans l’Extrême-Arctique canadien dans le but d’évaluer les variations de fréquentation en hautes latitudes, de comparer ces tendances à celles caractérisant les fulmars se reproduisant aux colonies se trouvant plus au sud et de déterminer en quoi les conditions météorologiques et le statut de reproduction peuvent exercer une influence sur la fréquentation. Il existait des similarités entre la répartition des espèces sur le plan des tendances de fréquentation au sein des colonies, bien que les variations locales en matière de disponibilité des approvisionnements alimentaires puissent expliquer les différences entre les dénombrements saisonniers de pointe aux colonies. Les vents violents et le temps des plus incléments se sont traduits par des dénombrements d’oiseaux moins grands aux colonies. Les variations de fréquentation saisonnières et quotidiennes étaient attribuables aux différences sur le plan du nombre de reproducteurs manqués ou d’oiseaux ne se reproduisant pas. Les changements qui se manifestent, tels que l’avancement de la débâcle et une moins grande surface de glace de mer, devraient entraîner des pointes plus hâtives et des périodicités continuellement courtes pour ce qui est des cycles de fréquentation des colonies de fulmars boréaux

Sources of Breeding Season Mortality in Canadian Arctic Seabirds

In more than 30 years of studies on marine birds in Arctic Canada, we have observed numerous instances of mortality of adults, eggs, and chicks that seem unusual when compared to known sources of mortality for seabirds breeding in temperate or tropical regions. The extreme cold weather and ice conditions of the Arctic might intuitively be expected to be a significant factor in mortality for these Arctic birds. While weather conditions led directly to seabird mortality, other factors, perhaps facilitated by typical Arctic climate features, caused more deaths. In this paper, we summarize mortality incidents that we have witnessed for nine species of Arctic marine birds, as a baseline against which future observations can be made. We also speculate on mechanisms by which climate change could increase mortality of breeding Arctic seabirds in the future.Dans le cadre d’études sur les oiseaux aquatiques qui se sont échelonnées sur plus de 30 ans dans l’Arctique canadien, nous avons observé de nombreuses incidences de mortalité chez les adultes, dans les oeufs et chez les oisillons, incidences qui semblent inhabituelles lorsqu’elles sont comparées aux sources connues de mortalité des oiseaux de mer qui se reproduisent dans les régions tempérées ou tropicales. Intuitivement, nous croyons que le temps froid extrême et le régime des glaces de l’Arctique peuvent représenter un facteur de mortalité important chez ces oiseaux de l’Arctique. Bien que les conditions climatiques aient directement entraîné la mort des oiseaux de mer, d’autres facteurs, qui sont peut-être déclenchés par les caractéristiques climatiques typiques de l’Arctique, ont occasionné d’autres décès. Dans ce document, nous résumons les incidents de mortalité dont nous avons été témoins pour neuf espèces d’oiseaux aquatiques de l’Arctique comme point de référence en vue d’observations futures. Nous émettons également des hypothèses à propos des mécanismes dans le cadre desquels le changement climatique pourrait accroître la mortalité des oiseaux de mer de l’Arctique en reproduction à l’avenir

Ross’s Gull (Rhodostethia rosea) Breeding in Penny Strait, Nunavut, Canada

We found a small, previously undiscovered breeding colony of Ross’s gulls (Rhodostethia rosea) in Nunavut, Canada, approximately 80 km from a previous colony location occupied during the 1970s. The birds nested in association with arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea). The collective observations from this region of the High Arctic suggest that Ross’s gulls may move colonies each year, or that colony occupation is intermittent.Nous avons repéré une petite colonie de reproduction de mouettes rosées (Rhodostethia rosea) non découverte jusqu’à ce moment-là au Nunavut, au Canada, à environ 80 kilomètres de l’emplacement d’une autre colonie occupée dans les années 1970. Les oiseaux nichaient avec des sternes arctiques (Sterna paradisaea). Les observations collectives de cette région de l’Extrême-Arctique laissent supposer que les mouettes rosées peuvent changer de colonie chaque année ou que l’occupation des colonies est intermittente

Status, Trends and Attendance Patterns of the Northern Fulmar Fulmarus glacialis in Nunavut, Canada

Nunavut supports ten breeding colonies of northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis), most of which have rarely been visited on the ground by biologists. During 2000–04, we surveyed six colonies previously thought to support more than 80% of the Canadian Arctic population, which was believed to number about 300 000 breeding pairs. Our counts suggested that the breeding populations of some colonies, especially those at the largest colonies, Cape Searle and Prince Leopold Island, were substantially smaller than previously estimated. Our estimate for the total population of Nunavut was approximately 200 000 occupied sites. However, counts made at fixed monitoring plots at Prince Leopold Island and total colony estimates at Cape Vera, Devon Island, suggested no change in numbers at those colonies since the 1970s. Numbers present at the colony peaked in late June–early July and fell sharply after the end of July. Cyclical attendance, identified in an earlier study, was irregular in period length and was not seen in all years. We concluded that counts of Apparently Occupied Sites (AOS) conducted daily for 10–15 days are the best monitoring protocol for northern fulmars at these Arctic colonies. The great day-to-day variability in counts may have contributed to the large differences between past and recent population estimates.Le Nunavut permet la subsistance de dix colonies de nidification de fulmars boréaux (Fulmarus glacialis), et rares sont les colonies qui ont été visitées par des biologistes au sol. De 2000 à 2004, nous avons recensé six colonies qui, croyait-on, soutenaient plus de 80 % de la population arctique canadienne, estimée à environ 300 000 couples reproducteurs. Nos dénombrements laissent supposer que les populations d’oiseaux nicheurs de certaines colonies, surtout les colonies les plus grosses, soit celles de cap Searle et de l’île Prince Leopold, sont nettement inférieures aux anciennes estimations. Notre estimation pour toute la population du Nunavut se chiffrait à environ 200 000 sites occupés. Toutefois, les dénombrements effectués à des lieux de surveillance fixes établis sur l’île Prince Leopold et les estimations totales des colonies de cap Vera, sur l’île Devon, laissent supposer qu’il n’y a pas eu de changement en ce qui a trait à ce nombre de colonies depuis les années 1970. Les nombres présents à la colonie ont atteint leur sommet vers la fin juin et le début juillet, après quoi ils ont chuté considérablement après la fin juillet. La fréquentation cyclique, dont il a été question dans une étude antérieure, était irrégulière pour ce qui est de la longueur de la période et n’était pas vue à toutes les années. Nous en avons donc conclu que les dénombrements de sites apparemment occupés qui ont été effectués quotidiennement pendant 10 à 15 jours représentent le meilleur protocole de surveillance des fulmars boréaux de ces colonies arctiques. L’importante variabilité enregistrée d’un jour à l’autre sur le plan des dénombrements pourrait avoir contribué aux grandes différences entre les estimations de population passées et récentes