Comparison of the design of 2 randomised controlled trials for vasculitis: MYPAN versus MYCYC.

<p>^aMYPAN: Mycophenolate mofetil for childhood polyarteritis nodosa;</p><p>^bPAN: polyarteritis nodosa;</p><p>^cMYCYC: Mycophenolate mofetil versus cyclophosphamide for ANCA associated vasculitis;</p><p>^dANCA: anti neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies;</p><p>^eMMF: Mycophenolate mofetil;</p><p>^fCYC: cyclophosphamide;</p><p>^gPVAS: Paediatric Vasculitis Activity Score;</p><p>^hBVAS: Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score.</p><p>Comparison of the design of 2 randomised controlled trials for vasculitis: MYPAN versus MYCYC.</p

Expert prior opinion before introduction of the MYCYC data regarding 6-month remission rates using treatment with CYC or MMF for children with PAN.

<p><b>Reprinted from [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120981#pone.0120981.ref007" target="_blank">7</a>] under a CC BY license, with permission from the authors, original copyright 2014.</b> Prior opinion was that the most likely value for p_C was 0.7; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.30, 0.91) and (0.50, 0.78), respectively. The effective sample size was 5 patients on CYC. The prior for p_M is derived from those for p_C and θ. It had mode = 0.65; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.21, 0.90) and (0.41, 0.74), respectively.</p

Flow diagram illustrating the sequence of activities undertaken during the MYPAN prior elicitation meeting and the time allocated to each activity.

<p>Flow diagram illustrating the sequence of activities undertaken during the MYPAN prior elicitation meeting and the time allocated to each activity.</p

Influence of the MYCYC trial results on expert prior opinion regarding 6-month remission rates using treatment with CYC or MMF for children with PAN. Reprinted from [7] under a CC BY license, with permission from the authors, original copyright 2014.

<p><a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120981#pone.0120981.g004" target="_blank">Fig 4A</a>): Influence of MYCYC results on prior opinion for p_C. The modified prior distribution for p_C after considering the MYCYC results had mode = 0.74; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.51, 0.86) and (0.63, 0.78), respectively. This level of certainty is equivalent to what would be obtained from a clinical trial involving 17 patients treated with CYC (effective sample size). <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120981#pone.0120981.g004" target="_blank">Fig 4B</a>): Influence of MYCYC results on prior opinion for p_M. The modified prior for p_M after considering the MYCYC results had mode = 0.71; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.45, 0.85) and (0.59, 0.76), respectively. <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0120981#pone.0120981.g004" target="_blank">Fig 4C</a>): Comparison of the final expert prior opinions for p_C and p_M incorporating the MYCYC data.</p