Heating Features of Interesting Supra-Arcade Downflows

Supra-arcade downflows (SADs) have been observed above flare loops during the decay phase of flare. They appear as tadpole-like dark plasma voids traveling towards the Sun. In areas surrounding where they appear, temperatures are often high. We aim to investigate temperature and heating mechanism of SADs. We apply our analysis to the M1.7 flare that occurred on 2012 July 12 and was observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. There are many obvious SADs above the arcade during this event in the AIA 131 channel. We calculate the differential emission measure and emission measure weighted temperature with AIA data in the region where SADs are concentrated. We find that the temperature in SADs region tends to be lower than the surrounding plasma. We also calculate velocities of SADs using the Fourier Local Correlation Tracking (FLCT, Fisher & Welsch, 2008) method to derive velocities in the supra-arcade region. Using corks to track the calculated velocities, we find our velocity results are consistent with the SAD motions in the AIA 131 intensity movie. We use the velocities to derive the adiabatic heating caused by the compression of plasma. Preliminary results indicate that there is adiabatic heating in front of the SADs

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the prediction of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). A path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current (Dst), AE, and wave activity

Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992–2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the post-storm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (9–12 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and IMF Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation

Thermal Structure of Supra-Arcade Plasma in Two Solar Flares

In this work, we use Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA data to determine the thermal structure of supra-arcade plasma in two solar flares. The first flare is a Ml.2 flare that occurred on November 5, 2010 on the east limb. This flare was one of a series of flares from AR 11121, published in Reeves & Golub (2011). The second flare is an XI.7 flare that occurred on January 27, 2012 on the west limb. This flare exhibits visible supra-arcade downflows (SADs), where the November 2010 flare does not. For these two flares we combine XRT and AlA data to calculate DEMs of each pixel in the supra-arcade plasma, giving insight into the temperature and density structures in the fan of plasma above the post-flare arcade. We find in each case that the supra-arcade plasma is around 10 MK, and there is a marked decrease in the emission measure in the SADs. We also compare the DEMs calculated with the combined AIA/XRT dataset to those calculated using AIA alone

Prediction of relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit following storms: Multiple regression analysis

Many solar wind and magnetosphere parameters correlate with relativistic electron flux following storms. These include relativistic electron flux before the storm, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density (and their variation), IMF Bz, AE and Kp indices, and ultra low frequency (ULF) and very low frequency (VLF) wave power. However, as all these variables are intercorrelated, we use multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Using 219 storms (1992-2002), we obtained hourly averaged electron fluxes for outer radiation belt relativistic electrons (>1.5 MeV) and seed electrons (100 keV) from LANL spacecraft (geosynchronous orbit). For each storm, we found the log10 maximum relativistic electron flux 48-120 hours after the end of the main phase of each storm. Each predictor variable was averaged over the 12 hours before the storm, main phase, and the 48 hours following minimum Dst. High levels of flux following storms are best modeled by a set of variables. In decreasing influence, ULF, seed electron flux, Vsw and its variation, and after-storm Bz were the most significant explanatory variables. Kp can be added to the model, but it adds no further explanatory power. Although we included ground-based VLF power from Halley, Antarctica, it shows little predictive ability. We produced predictive models using the coefficients from the regression models, and assessed their effectiveness in predicting novel observations. The correlation between observed values and those predicted by these empirical models ranged from .645 to .795

Morphology Of A Hot Prominence Cavity Observed with Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA

Prominence cavities appear as circularly shaped voids in coronal emission over polarity inversion lines where a prominence channel is straddling the solar limb. The presence of chromospheric material suspended at coronal altitudes is a common but not necessary feature within these cavities. These voids are observed to change shape as a prominence feature rotates around the limb. We use a morphological model projected in cross-sections to fit the cavity emission in Hinode/XRT passbands, and then apply temperature diagnostics to XRT and SDO/AIA data to investigate the thermal structure. We find significant evidence that the prominence cavity is hotter than the corona immediately outside the cavity boundary. This investigation follows upon "Thermal Properties of A Solar Coronal Cavity Observed with the X-ray Telescope on Hinode" by Reeves et al., 2012, ApJ, in press

A Trust for Whom?: Managing Colorado\u27s 3 Million Acres of State Land

14 pages. Includes biographical information for John M. Evans, Reeves Brown, and Mark A. E. Burget. State Land Board Commissioner Maxine Stewart was also a speaker for this program, but did not submit any written materials. Contents: A trust for whom? managing Colorado\u27s 3 million acres of state land : a critique of the constitutional amendment / prepared by John Evans -- A cattlemen\u27s [sic] perspective of state land management / presented by Reeves Brown -- Remarks outline / Mark A. E. Burget Program was presented on Monday, February 5, 1996 at the offices of Holland & Hart in Denver, Colo. Historically, state trust lands have been managed for public schools revenue. Now there is pressure to protect some state lands as open space. Should trust lands be managed for broader public values? Is this consistent with existing legal mandates? Speakers: State Land Board Commissioner Maxine Stewart; John Evans, Colorado Board of Education; Reeves Brown, Colorado Cattlemen\u27s Association; The Nature Conservancy\u27s Colorado State Director Mark Burget. Special focus on the recently implemented Multiple Use Program and also on how The Nature Conservancy is working with the State Land Board to preserve resources. Center Director Elizabeth Rieke will moderate

A Trust for Whom?: Managing Colorado\u27s 3 Million Acres of State Land

14 pages. Includes biographical information for John M. Evans, Reeves Brown, and Mark A. E. Burget. State Land Board Commissioner Maxine Stewart was also a speaker for this program, but did not submit any written materials. Contents: A trust for whom? managing Colorado\u27s 3 million acres of state land : a critique of the constitutional amendment / prepared by John Evans -- A cattlemen\u27s [sic] perspective of state land management / presented by Reeves Brown -- Remarks outline / Mark A. E. Burget Program was presented on Monday, February 5, 1996 at the offices of Holland & Hart in Denver, Colo. Historically, state trust lands have been managed for public schools revenue. Now there is pressure to protect some state lands as open space. Should trust lands be managed for broader public values? Is this consistent with existing legal mandates? Speakers: State Land Board Commissioner Maxine Stewart; John Evans, Colorado Board of Education; Reeves Brown, Colorado Cattlemen\u27s Association; The Nature Conservancy\u27s Colorado State Director Mark Burget. Special focus on the recently implemented Multiple Use Program and also on how The Nature Conservancy is working with the State Land Board to preserve resources. Center Director Elizabeth Rieke will moderate