MOESM2 of The application of evolutionary medicine principles for sustainable malaria control: a scoping study

Additional file 2. Interview questions on evolutionary aspects of malaria and the implications for control programmes

Summary of the simulated scenarios.

<p>Summary of the simulated scenarios.</p

Relative cercariae numbers and relative infection risk by time of day in the lake and river scenarios.

<p>a) shows cercaria numbers in the lake scenario. b) shows cercaria numbers in the river scenario. c) shows infection risk in the lake scenario. d) shows infection risk in the river scenario. The blues lines show risk with no diurnal variation in temperature, the red lines with ±2°C variation, and the greens lines with ±5°C variation. Where the three colours cannot been seen the results are very similar regardless of levels of diurnal variation in temperature. The solid lines show results at a mean temperature of 15.0°C and the dashed lines at 29.5°C. Results are presented as cercaria numbers and infection risk, relative to maximum cercaria numbers and infection risk in the same scenario at the same temperature. Results for all temperatures between these two extremes lie between the lines for 15°C and 29.5°C, and are not shown.</p

Proportions of eggs and snail surviving each stage, and cercariae production by infected snails.

<p>a) Proportion of eggs laid that hatch. b) Proportion of juvenile snails that survive to adulthood (assuming no additional density dependent mortality, and that no juvenile snails develop patent infections before they become adults). c) Proportion of infected snails that survive to patency (assuming no additional density dependent mortality). d) Median lifetime cercariae production by an infectious snail (assuming no additional density dependent mortality). Results are shown for the lower mortality scenarios. Blue lines show <i>B. pfeifferi</i>, red lines show <i>B. glabrata</i> and green lines show <i>B. alexandrina.</i></p

Diagram of the model structure.

<p>Boxes indicate classes of agents. Solid arrows indicate that agents can change from one class into another. Dashed lines indicate the production of one class by another. Dotted lines indicate infection. Red outlines and arrows indicate the presence of <i>Schistosoma mansoni</i>. Agents of all classes can die and be removed from the model. Table S1 contains details of the rates and probabilities that determine the movement of agents between classes.</p

Snail generation time and prepatent period by temperature.

<p>The blue line shows the number of days between an egg being laid and it first producing eggs. The red line shows the number of days between a snail being infected and it first producing cercariae.</p

Number of snails by temperature.

<p>The blue line shows the total number of snails in the model with no diurnal variation in temperature, the red where the diurnal temperature varies by ±2°C, and the green where it varies by ±5°C. All are from the lake scenario, however results are very similar for the river scenario.</p

Comparison of parameters used in models of <i>B. pfeifferi</i>, <i>B. glabrata</i> and <i>B. alexandrina</i>.

<p>a) Juvenile development. Heat units gained per hour. Snails become adults and start producing eggs once they have gained 100 heat units. b) Egg production. Eggs per snail per hour. c) Egg development. Heat units gained per hour. Egg hatch once they have gained 100 heat units. d) Egg mortality rate per hour. e) Uninfected and prepatent snail mortality rate per hour. f) Parasite development within the snail. Heat units gained per hour. Snails become infectious once they have gained 100 heat units. Blue lines show parameters for <i>B. pfeifferi</i>, red for <i>B. glabrata</i>, green for <i>B. alexandrina</i>, and turquoise for both <i>B. pfeifferi</i> and <i>B. alexandrina</i>.</p

Proportion of snails that are infectious by temperature, relative to maximum proportion in the same scenario.

<p>The blues lines show risk with no diurnal variation in temperature, the red lines with ±2°C variation, and the green lines with ±5°C variation. The solid lines show the results of the lake scenarios and the dashed lines the results of the river scenario.</p

Lowess smoother of the log of DHEAS by age among all girls Aged 5–16 years.

<p>Triangle shows inflection point where log salivary DHEAS reaches 5.5–6 pg/ml, signifying the clinical threshold for adrenarche.</p