A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decades and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core EMU countries and we provide evidence that the copula-VAR model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.Forecasting, Industrial Production, Copulas, VAR models.

Testosterone Replacement Therapy and Cardiovascular Risk: A Review

Recent reports in the scientific and lay press have suggested that testosterone (T) replacement therapy (TRT) is likely to increase cardiovascular (CV) risk. In a final report released in 2015, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cautioned that prescribing T products is approved only for men who have low T levels due to primary or secondary hypogonadism resulting from problems within the testis, pituitary, or hypothalamus (e.g., genetic problems or damage from surgery, chemotherapy, or infection). In this report, the FDA emphasized that the benefits and safety of T medications have not been established for the treatment of low T levels due to aging, even if a man's symptoms seem to be related to low T. In this paper, we reviewed the available evidence on the association between TRT and CV risk. In particular, data from randomized controlled studies and information derived from observational and pharmacoepidemiological investigations were scrutinized. The data meta-analyzed here do not support any causal role between TRT and adverse CV events. This is especially true when hypogonadism is properly diagnosed and replacement therapy is correctly performed. Elevated hematocrit represents the most common adverse event related to TRT. Hence, it is important to monitor hematocrit at regular intervals in T-treated subjects in order to avoid potentially serious adverse events

The SIAMS-ED Trial: A National, Independent, Multicentre Study on Cardiometabolic and Hormonal Impairment of Men with Erectile Dysfunction Treated with Vardenafil

Increased cardiovascular risk has been associated with reduced response to proerectile drugs. The Italian Society of Andrology and Sexual Medicine (SIAMS) promoted an independent, multicenter study performed in 604 men (55 ± 12 yrs) suffering from erectile dysfunction (ED) to assess multiple health outcomes and response to 6-month vardenafil challenge in a real-life setting. Overall, 30.8% men had metabolic syndrome. Cardiovascular risk stratification revealed a greater number of ED subjects with moderate risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event than the general population (P < 0.01). Age-adjusted pulse pressure was positively correlated with ED severity and negatively with androgens and waist circumference (P < 0.01). A decline in total testosterone was observed with increasing arterial pulse pressure (P < 0.05), which was not accompanied by compensatory LH rise. Follow-up on 185 men treated with vardenafil in an nonrandomized, open, single-arm trial documented a significant rise in IIEF-5 (delta = 6.1 ± 4.8) that was maintained in men with high cardiovascular risk. Mild adverse events occurred in <5%, with no differences between cardiovascular risk classes. In summary, ED is a frequent symptom in patients with an elevated, but often unknown, risk of future cardiovascular events. Androgens predict vascular resistance in ED patients. Vardenafil's response and safety profile were preserved in subjects with higher cardiovascular risk