Socio-technical transitions in South Africa’s electricity system

In the last century, markets, technical configurations, existing power relations, and prevailing ideologies in industrialised countries have co-evolved in ways that promote fossil-fuel-based systems. Relatedly, the literature on sustainability transitions (STs) has gained significance in the last twenty years, primarily because of increased interest by those who are concern with enabling shifts towards low-carbon sources of energy. This research examines the kinds of changes which take place in fossil fuel path-dependent systems in response to the pressure imposed by the advent of greener alternatives. Understanding how fossil-fuelled path-dependent systems respond to such demands enables us to identify counter-strategies, which may help accelerate sustainability transitions. Using a combination of the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions and institutional theory, the thesis presents case studies centred on South Africa’s coal-fired electricity regime, which is entrenched in a system known as the minerals-energy complex (MEC). The case studies examine how the coal-fired electricity regime tried to maintain stability in the face of pressure to decarbonise by diversifying to include more renewables-based and gas-fired electricity generation, each of which is considered as a niche. The findings from the case studies are organised into three articles. The first paper presents a case study on the establishment of the MEC and shows how it became a highly path-dependent system, posing a formidable obstacle and challenge for new entrants. The second paper investigates the contestation between the dominant regime incumbent, Eskom, versus the nascent renewable energy programme. This paper demonstrates an evolving strategy of regime resistance in response to several gains achieved by the renewables niche over time. The third paper examines the emergence of a gas-to-power niche against a backdrop of interactions between electricity and liquid fuel regimes. This paper shows the highly dynamic changes that take place in a regime as it tries to maintain stability. The overall findings demonstrate that the electricity regime evolved from highly stable to having features of a fractured regime, or what could be understood to be a form of destabilisation. The thesis contributes to the ST field by suggesting several ways in which regime stability and change could be better understood. These include enhanced theorising of regime resistance through analysis of the regime’s multi-dimensional selection environment and mobilising endogenous institutional concepts through various modes of change (drift, layering, conversion and displacement) into the theory. Policy recommendations suggest a fractured regime requires a temporally sensitive displacement policy mix. This is one in which varying stages of regime stability are recognised and potentially exploited by corresponding niche strategies

Multiple regime interactions, conversion, and South Africa’s liquefied natural gas

Increasingly it is recognised that regimes in transitions can promote niches rather than resist them. Using a combination of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) and institutional theory, this paper contributes to the transitions literature on multiple regime interactions, by providing a more nuanced understanding of why and how regimes interact over time. Using semi-structured interviews, the case study explored South Africa's development of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for power generation and industrial use together considered as the niche. The two regimes were the coal-based electricity and liquid fuels. This case study revealed the co-evolutionary nature of multiple regime interactions, through repurposing existing institutions in response to increasing landscape pressures and regime tension over time. However, repurposing of existing rules was neither spontaneous nor automatic but required a series of cohesive efforts for linkages between the two regimes. These efforts involved the ongoing interface between a broad base community with interests for the LNG niche, which over time provided a supportive environment in which to complement shared resources. Understanding multiple regime interactions, has potential implications on ‘acceleration’ of niche development, whereby new institutions are not necessarily created, but rather repurpose existing ones to serve new goals or interests. The paper also reflects on temporal policy overlaps aimed at sustainability transitions, whereby a policy instrument initially used for renewables could be co-opted by more powerful actors in a direction that may strengthen a fossil fuel based system. Thus, special attention is needed on the relationship between the flexibility of some policy instruments and the dominant groups, which may leverage them for its own interests

Reconfiguration, contestation, and decline: conceptualizing mature large technical systems

Large technical systems (LTS) are integral to modern lifestyles but arduous to analyze. In this paper, we advance a conceptualization of LTS using the notion of mature “phases,” drawing from insights into innovation studies, science and technology studies, political science, the sociology of infra- structure, history of technology, and governance. We begin by defining LTS as a unit of analysis and explaining its conceptual utility and novelty, situating it among other prominent sociotechnical theories. Next, we argue that after LTS have moved through the (overlapping) phases proposed by Thomas Hughes of invention, expansion, growth, momentum, and style,mature LTS undergo the additional (overlapping) phases of reconfiguration, contestation (subject to pressures such as drift and crisis), and eventually stagnation and decline. We illustrate these analytical phases with historical case studies and the conceptual literature, and close by suggesting future research to refine and develop the LTS framework, particularly related to more refined typologies, temporal dimensions, and a broadening of system users. We aim to contribute to theoretical debates about the coevolution of LTS as well as empirical discussions about system-related use, socio- technical change, and policy-making

Historical review of the relationship between energy, mining and the South African economy

Mining, energy and industrial development have been key to growth and development in South Africa. It is estimated that South Africa’s mineral wealth value is around $2.5 trillion (GCIS, 2012). Mining and the electricity industry co-evolved together due to the abundance of inexpensive coal. The electricity industry was spurred by the needs of a flourishing mining industry around the beginning of the twentieth century. South Africa’s electricity industry is embedded in what is known as the Minerals-Energy Complex (MEC). The MEC is described as the relationship between mining, energy intensive mineral processing, the coal-to-electricity sectors, and parts of the supportive transport and logistics infrastructure (Fine and Rustomjee, 1996). However, the continued reliance of South Africa’s electricity system on coal is increasingly under threat from international pressure to mitigate climate change. Additionally, sustained dependence on a resource-based economy is risky, not only because of finite supply but, more importantly, because emphasis on a global commodity market renders the economy vulnerable to short-term volatile capital flows, and less long-term labour absorbing economic growth. The main objective of this chapter is to discuss how South Africa faces the challenges and demands towards sustainable transitions

Eskom and the rise of renewables: regime-resistance, crisis and the strategy of incumbency in South Africa's electricity system

The sustainability transitions literature considers regimes as sources of inertia, in which change is difficult to achieve due to resistance and lock-in. However, regime-resistance is an understudied issue, and so it is unclear which parts of the regime create resistance and how. In this paper, we contribute such an analysis by developing the concept of a multi-dimensional selection environment to explore regime-resistance and the maintenance of regime-stability in the face of challenges from a niche. We present a case study tracing the efforts of South Africa's state-owned electricity utility Eskom, conceptualised as a dominant regime-incumbent, to resist the addition of renewable energy-based electricity generation, conceptualised as part of a niche. We examine battles over rule-changes to the regime selection environment, wherein Eskom tried to maintain the status quo and niche actors tried to transform it. We find that Eskom had an evolving strategy of regime-resistance in response to several gains achieved by the renewables niche over time. Our analysis suggests ways to theorise regime-resistance by developing a more specific and dimensioned view of the selection environment and operationalising the strategies that regime and niche actors might implement in their respective attempts to maintain or change that selection environment. By understanding how these strategies work, we argue that those seeking to transform an unsustainable regime could develop more effective strategies for undermining regime-resistance and promoting niches