Sectoral Shifts, Diversification and Regional Unemployment: Evidence from Local Labour Systems in Italy

Using Local Labour Systems (LLSs) data, this work aims at assessing the effects of sectoral shifts and industry specialization patterns on regional unemployment in Italy over the years 2004-2008, when huge worker reallocation caused by changes in the international division of labour occurred. Italy represents an interesting case study because of the high degree of spatial heterogeneity in local labour market performance and the well-known North-South divide. Furthermore, the presence of strongly specialized LLSs (Industrial Districts, IDs) allows us to test whether IDs perform better than highly diversified urban areas thanks to the effect of agglomeration economies, or vice versa. Building on a semiparametric spatial auto-regressive framework, our empirical investigation documents that sectoral shifts and the degree of specialization exert a negative role on unemployment dynamics. By contrast, highly diversified areas turn out to be characterized by better labour market performances.unemployment, sectoral shift, diversification, spatial dependence, nonparametrics

Multiple Regimes in Cross-Region Growth Regressions with Spatial Dependence: A Parametric and a Semi-parametric Approach

This paper studies the distribution dynamics of development across European regions over the period 1975-2000. Regional development is measured in terms of both per capita GDP (Y/P) and its components: labour productivity and employment ratio (that in turn can be decomposed in terms of activity and unemployment rate). The Core/Periphery pattern in the European Union is firstly investigated and a comparative analysis in terms of income, productivity, employment and unemployment rates of the two partitions is carried out. Moreover, for each variable as well as for each partition, a nonparametric beta convergence analysis is applied. Synthetically, the results confirm the lack of regional convergence in per capita incomes, the presence of a negative quasi-linear relationship between growth rates and initial levels of labour productivity and a U-shaped relationship between growth rates and initial levels of unemployment rates. As it is well known, however, b-convergence analysis does not allow any test of multiple equilibria, such as “emerging twin peaks”, in the growth process. Equilibrium multiplicity can be properly assessed by using nonparametric techniques of analysis of the cross-regional distribution. In particular, a way to quantify the intra-distribution dynamics is the multivariate kernel, which estimates the joint density of regional income, productivity and (un)employment distribution at time t0 and t0+t. The results of this analysis suggest that over the period considered the regional growth pattern in Europe has followed a polarisation process rather than a convergence path. This appears particularly true in the case of per capita incomes and unemployment rates. Finally, in order to “explain” polarisation, conditional multivariate kernels are estimated. In particular, the role of spatial contiguity and regional sectoral specialisation is investigated.

Integrazione economica, concentrazione delle attività produttive e impatto sulla crescita

Dottorato di ricerca in Economia applicata, XVIII ciclo. A.a. 2006-200

I contratti di programma:evoluzione della normativa ed efficacia economica

In this article we attempt an overall evaluation of the so called “planning contracts”, a policy measure originally designed in 1986 to foster investments of large firms in Southern Italy, and recently relaunched thanks to a new law. On the base of secondary data, we take into consideration three aspects: a) a full and detailed picture of how the regulation has changed in the course of time; b) quantitative indicators concerning investments, employment and public disbursement; c) additionality of the incentive and effectiveness of the negotiation process. The combined analysis of these three aspects suggest that planning contracts partly reached their developments’ goals but important changes of the policy design are needed

Contratti di programma: evoluzione della normativa ed efficacia economica

In this article we attempt an overall evaluation of what are called "planning contracts", a policy measure originally designed in 1986 to encourage large firms to invest in Southern Italy and that a new law has recently re-launched. On the basis of secondary data, we take into consideration three aspects: a) a full and detailed picture of how the regulation has changed in the course of time; b) quantitative indicators concerning investments, employment and public disbursement; c) the additionality of the incentive and the effectiveness of the negotiation process. The combined analysis of these three aspects suggests that although the planning contracts partly achieved their development goals, important changes to the policy design are needed.Contratti di programma, grandi imprese, consorzi di imprese, Mezzogiorno, politica industriale

La concentrazione geografica dell'industria in Italia: 1971-2001

In this work we analyze the spatial distribution of manufacturing industries in Italy using data on the number of employees in the local units localized in the Local labour Systems, as revealed by the decennial censuses from 1971 to 2001. We use the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, which integrates synthetic measures of concentration and of spatial dependence with nonparametric techniques for the density estimation. With regards to the total manufacturing activity, the results suggest the existence of a hierarchical model, centered between Piedmont and Lombardy, in 1971, and a more complex polycentric model in 2001. At sectoral level, the findings also highlight a strong heterogeneity in the dynamics of geographic concentration.Concentration, Italy, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis.

Interregional Migration of Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Since the mid-1990s interregional migration flows in Italy have dramatically increased, especially from the South to the North. These flows are characterized by a strong component of human capital, involving a large number of workers with secondary and tertiary education. Using longitudinal data for the period 2002–2011 at NUTS-3 territorial level, we document that long-distance (i.e., South-North) net migration of high-skill workers has increased the unemployment at origin and decreased it at destination, thus deepening North–South unemployment disparities. On the other hand, long-distance net migration of low-skill workers has had the opposite effect, by lowering the unemployment at origin and raising it at destination. Further evidence also suggests that the diverging effect of high-skill migration dominates the converging effect of low-skill migration. Thus, concerns for an ‘internal brain drain’ from Southern regions look not groundless