Epidemiological trends in COVID-19 pandemic: prospective critical appraisal of observations from six countries in Europe and the USA

Introduction Europe was the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, with the highest number of cases and deaths between March and April. In May, the infection numbers registered a fall followed by a second new rise, not proportionally reflected by an increase in the number of deaths. We aimed to investigate the relationship between disease prevalence and infection fatality rate (IFR), and the number of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital admissions over time, to develop a predictive model, as well as appraising the potential contributing factors underpinning this complex relationship.Methods A prospective epidemiological study using data from six countries collected between 10 March and 4 September 2020. Data on the number of daily hospital and ICU admissions with COVID-19 were gathered, and the IFR and the prevalence were calculated. Trends over time were analysed. A linear regression model was used to determine the association between the fatality rates and the number of admissions.Findings The prediction model confirmed the linear association between the fatality rates and the numbers of ICU and hospital admissions. The exception was during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when the model underestimated the fatalities indicating that a substantial number of deaths occurred outside of the hospitals. The fatality rates decreased in all countries from May until September regardless of the trends in prevalence, differences in healthcare systems or strategic variations in handling the pandemic.Interpretation The observed gradual reduction in COVID-19 fatality rates over time despite varying disease prevalence and public health measures across multiple countries warrants search for a biological explanation. While our understanding of this novel virus grows, hospital and ICU admission rates remain effective predictors of patient outcomes which can be used as early warning signs for escalation of public health measures

ANATOMICAL-HISTOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS CONDUCTED ON AQUATIC FERNS IN THE DANUBE DELTA

This paper analyses aquatic ferns from the genera Azolla Lam., Marsilea L. and Salvinia Séguier, which occur in the Danube Delta, Romania, and comprises a series of anatomical and histological observations of taxonomical, chorological and eco-morphological importance. The research conducted on specimens collected between 2005-2013 from the natural habitats of the Danube Delta, but also from the extra-deltaic artificial habitats have enabled: i) a reconsideration of some chorological aspects regarding the species of the genus Azolla in Romania; ii) a greater understanding of the adaptive plasticity relative to the factor water for the taxon Marsilea quadrifolia L. collected from natural and artificial habitats; iii) the enrichment of the data regarding the structural characteristics of the taxon Salvinia natans (L.) All., particularly around the adaptive elements associated with living on the surface of the water

Factors Influencing Driving following DBS Surgery in Parkinson’s Disease: A Single UK Centre Experience and Review of the Literature

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder, leading to impairment of various neurological faculties, including motor, planning, cognitivity, and executive functions. Motor- and non-motor symptoms of the disease may intensify a patient’s restrictions to performing usual tasks of daily living, including driving. Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) associated with optimized clinical treatment has been shown to improve quality of life, motor, and non-motor symptoms in PD. In most countries, there are no specific guidelines concerning minimum safety requirements and the timing of return to driving following DBS, leaving to the medical staff of individual DBS centres the responsibility to draw recommendations individually regarding patients’ ability to drive after surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors that might influence the ability to drive following DBS in the management of PD. A total of 125 patients were included. Clinical, epidemiological, neuropsychological, and surgical factors were evaluated. The mean follow-up time was 129.9 months. DBS improved motor and non-motor symptoms of PD. However, in general, patients were 2.8-fold less likely to drive in the postoperative period than prior to surgery. Among the PD characteristics, patients with the akinetic subtype presented a higher risk to lose their driving licence postoperatively. Furthermore, the presence of an abnormal postoperative neuropsychological evaluation was also associated with driving restriction following surgery. Our data indicate that restriction to drive following surgery seems to be multifactorial rather than a direct consequence of DBS itself. Our study sheds light on the urgent need for a standardised multidisciplinary postoperative evaluation to assess patients’ ability to drive following DBS

External validation and recalibration of an incidental meningioma prognostic model - IMPACT: protocol for an international multicentre retrospective cohort study

Introduction: Due to the increased use of CT and MRI, the prevalence of incidental findings on brain scans is increasing. Meningioma, the most common primary brain tumour, is a frequently encountered incidental finding, with an estimated prevalence of 3/1000. The management of incidental meningioma varies widely with active clinical-radiological monitoring being the most accepted method by clinicians. Duration of monitoring and time intervals for assessment, however, are not well defined. To this end, we have recently developed a statistical model of progression risk based on single-centre retrospective data. The model Incidental Meningioma: Prognostic Analysis Using Patient Comorbidity and MRI Tests (IMPACT) employs baseline clinical and imaging features to categorise the patient with an incidental meningioma into one of three risk groups: low, medium and high risk with a proposed active monitoring strategy based on the risk and temporal trajectory of progression, accounting for actuarial life expectancy. The primary aim of this study is to assess the external validity of this model. Methods and analysis: IMPACT is a retrospective multicentre study which will aim to include 1500 patients with an incidental intracranial meningioma, powered to detect a 10% progression risk. Adult patients ≥16 years diagnosed with an incidental meningioma between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010 will be included. Clinical and radiological data will be collected longitudinally until the patient reaches one of the study endpoints: intervention (surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery or fractionated radiotherapy), mortality or last date of follow-up. Data will be uploaded to an online Research Electronic Data Capture database with no unique identifiers. External validity of IMPACT will be tested using established statistical methods. Ethics and dissemination: Local institutional approval at each participating centre will be required. Results of the study will be reported through peer-reviewed articles and conferences and disseminated to participating centres, patients and the public using social media