Trade Facilitation and the Extensive Margin

The literature on trade facilitation has mostly focused on implications for trade volumes. However, recent theoretical contributions have emphasized that trade costs – such as transaction costs related to cross-border trade procedures – affect both the traded volumes of “old” goods (the intensive margin) and the range of traded goods (the extensive margin). This paper therefore tests whether trade facilitation affects the extensive margin by counting the number of 8-digit products that are exported from developing to EU countries, and using this as the dependent variable in an estimation. Moreover, it also tests whether the extensive margins in differentiated and homogeneous goods are affected in the same way by transaction costs. Estimation results suggest that if export transaction costs – proxied by the number of days needed to export a good – declined by 1 per cent, the number of exported differentiated and homogeneous products would rise by 0.7 and 0.4 per cent respectively. Policy simulations further illustrate that if all countries were as efficient at the border as the most efficient country at the same level of development, the number of exported differentiated and homogeneous products would increase by 64 and 29 per cent respectively.Trade Facilitation; Extensive Margin; Export Diversification; Differentiated Products; Homogeneous Products; European Union; Developing Countries

The Spectrum of Volterra-type integration operators on generalized Fock spaces

We describe the spectrum of certain integration operators acting on general- ized Fock spaces

Exploring the Duration of EU Imports

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, against the background of an existing empirical literature on the duration of trade which has found that international trade is often of strikingly short duration, we aim to establish whether or not EU imports from the rest of the world also are short-lived. Second, since there is at this point no clear commonly accepted theoretical explanation for these short trade durations, we seek to provide a thorough empirical description and analysis of the phenomenon, with the intention of thereby facilitating theoretical developments on the subject. We employ a rich data set of detailed imports to the EU15 countries from 140 exporters, covering the time period 1962-2006. Using these data, we begin by conducting a thorough descriptive analysis of the duration of EU imports. Thereafter, we perform a regression analysis using discrete-time duration models with proper controls for unobserved heterogeneity. We draw the conclusion that EU imports are indeed very short-lived – in fact, possibly more so than, for example, US imports. The median duration of EU imports is for example merely one year, and almost 60 percent of all spells cease during the first year of service. Among our empirical findings are (i) that the duration of trade remains stable across the long time period that we study; (ii) that short trade durations are the result of at least two processes: countries shifting between different suppliers but continuing to import a given product, and countries ceasing to import the product altogether; and (iii) that countries with a diversified export structure also will tend to have more long-lived export flows. In our formal regression, we are also able to find a set of explanatory variables that have statistically significant effects on the probability that trade flows die.Duration of Trade; Survival; European Union; Discrete-Time Hazard Models

Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962–2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the extended time period that we study: in general only 40 percent of trade flows survive the first year of service, and this share has not changed much since the 1960s. However, this observed constancy is the result of two underlying trends that work in opposite directions. On the one hand, positive trends in several of the observed explanatory variables – which in turn influence the hazard of trade flows dying in a negative direction – imply that the hazard tends to decrease over calendar time. On the other hand, there is also a positive trend in the hazard due to calendar year-specific unobserved factors. Holding all observed determinants constant, the probability of a trade flow dying in its first year increases from 34% at the beginning of the period to 90% at the end.Duration of Trade; Survival; Entry and Exit; European Union; Discrete-Time Hazard Models

The Duration of Trade Revisited: Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards

The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this paper is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox model, and to propose alternative discrete-time models which are more suitable for estimation. Briefly, the Cox model has three major drawbacks when applied to large trade data sets. First, it faces problems in the presence of many tied duration times, leading to biased coefficient estimates and standard errors. Second, it is difficult to properly control for unobserved heterogeneity, which can result in spurious duration dependence and parameter bias. Third, the Cox model imposes the restrictive and empirically questionable assumption of proportional hazards. By contrast, with discrete-time models there is no problem handling ties; unobserved heterogeneity can be controlled for without difficulty; and the restrictive proportional hazards assumption can easily be bypassed. By replicating an influential study by Besedeš and Prusa from 2006, but employing discrete-time models as well as the original Cox model, we find empirical support for each of these arguments against the Cox model. Moreover, when comparing estimation results obtained from a Cox model and our preferred discrete-time specification, we find significant differences in both the predicted hazard rates and the estimated effects of explanatory variables on the hazard. In other words, the choice between models affects the conclusions that can be drawn.Duration of Trade; Continuous-Time versus Discrete-Time Hazard Models; Proportional Hazards; Unobserved Heterogeneity

Completing the EU Customs Union. The Effects of Trade Procedure Harmonization

A main component of customs unions is a common trade policy on imports from non-member countries. Trade policy covers both tariff and non-tariff barriers like trade procedures. We argue that since trade procedures vary markedly across EU countries, the EU is not, strictly speaking, a customs union. To illustrate this, we estimate the impact of trade procedures on exports from non-EU countries and find a highly statistically significant and negative effect. Simulating what the effects would be of harmonizing trade procedures, i.e. to actually complete the EU customs union, we find that aggregated exports to the EU would increase by 20 percent for the average exporter.Customs Union; Economic Integration; European Union; Time Delays; Trade Facilitation; Trade Procedures

Reaping the Benefits of Deeper Euro-Med Integration Through Trade Facilitation

The current political turmoil in the Arab world has contributed to renewed interest in the Barcelona Process. This paper explores whether deeper integration in the form of trade facilitation – i.e. improved and simplified trade procedures – could be an important part of a reform agenda. Adopting a Southern perspective by focusing on exports from non-EU Mediterranean countries to the EU, we test whether the efficiency of trade procedures affects (i) bilateral volumes of exports, and (ii) the number of products exported. Our findings suggest that trade facilitation could lead to substantially increased export volumes and export diversification.Barcelona Process; Mediterranean Union; European Union; Deeper Integration; Trade Facilitation; Export volumes; Export Diversification

Haptoglobin and serum amyloid A in relation to the somatic cell count in quarter, cow composite and bulk tank milk samples

Milk somatic cell count (SCC) is the gold standard in diagnosis of subclinical mastitis, and is also an important parameter in quality programmes of dairy cooperatives. As routine SCC analysis is usually restricted to central laboratories, much effort has been invested in the search for alternative biomarkers of mastitis and milk quality, including the presence in the milk of the acute phase proteins (APP), haptoglobin (Hp) and serum amyloid A (SAA). The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between Hp, SAA and SCC in quarter, cow composite, and bulk tank milk samples. Cows (n=165), without any clinical signs of disease or abnormalities in the milk or udder, from three different dairy farms, were used. Cow composite milk samples from all cows delivering milk at the sampling occasion were taken once in each herd. In one of the farms, representative quarter milk samples (n=103) from 26 cows were also collected. In addition, bulk tank milk samples from 96 dairy farms were included in the study. Samples were analysed for Hp, SAA and SCC, and relationships between the parameters were evaluated at quarter, cow and tank milk levels using Chi-square analysis. Milk samples were categorized according to their SCC, and the presence, or no presence, of SAA and Hp, based on the detection limits of the screening methods (0.3 mg/l and 1.0 mg/l for SAA and Hp, respectively). Hp and SAA were found in milk at quarter, cow composite and bulk tank levels. A large proportion (53%) of the animals had detectable milk concentrations of APP, and SAA was detected more frequently, and at higher concentrations than Hp, regardless of sample type. SAA was detected in as many as 82% of the bulk tank milk samples. Significant relationships were found between Hp, SAA and SCC at quarter and cow composite milk levels, but only between SAA and SCC at bulk tank milk level. Detectable levels of APP were more common at high SCC

EPA and Fiscal Transition in ECOWAS Countries

Negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states on the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) began in 2002. The EPAs are intended to replace the most recent form of partnership framed by the Lomé convention, as it was seen to infringe the rules of the WTO. This study examines trade and fiscal implications of the EPA between the EU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It compares and discusses the evidence from empirical studies trying to assess these effects. In addition, it examines how West African countries prior to the EPA are preparing for the necessary transition of their fiscal regimes. The main conclusions drawn from the study are the following: the EPA will imply significant revenue losses for West African countries and divert trade from extra- and intra-regional suppliers in favour of EU suppliers. It is doubtful whether these countries will be able to compensate entirely for losses in tariff revenue by reforming their fiscal systems. In order to truly profit from the dynamic gains from an EPA, West African countries will need financial and technical assistance provided by the EU. The EPA may not deepen regional integration nor promote South-South trade

Subjective Image Quality Evaluation Using the Softcopy Quality Ruler Method

Image quality is in essence based on subjective experience, and the involvement of human subjects is therefore necessary in one way or the other in order to make reliable assessments of it. This topic is of interest for Axis Communications AB -- the market leader in surveillance cameras. In this thesis, the softcopy quality ruler method described in ISO 20462 is evaluated through a study of one specific image quality problem; human preference in the noise reduction -- texture loss space. The method involves quality or attribute judgment by comparison of test images to a series of ordered, univariate (variation in one attribute only) reference images, called ''ruler images''. Sharpness is used as reference attribute for the ruler images. For the purpose of the thesis project, a working environment for performing subjective studies was set up. A total of 47 persons (observers) were invited to judge a set of test images varying in noise level and amount of noise reduction as well as scene content. From the data, confidence intervals were calculated using the non-parametric bootstrap method as well as using the normal distribution. The two methods gave very similar results, and thus it could be confirmed that the data is well described by a normal distribution. The results of the study indicate that it is possible to determine an optimum level of noise reduction for a given noise level. For increasing noise levels, the variances of the observer judgments increase, while they decrease for increasing noise reduction levels. This difference may be explained by making the observation that increasing noise reduction levels result in increasing texture blur, which appears more similar to sharpness loss in comparison with noise. It is reasonable to assume that the uncertainty in observer judgments should be lower when comparing images with similar degradations. Therefore, it might be argued that the variability of the judgments depends to a large extent on the perceived similarities between the ruler and test images, in terms of the attribute(s) considered. If the ruler images appear similar to the test images, the variances of the judgments will be lower than for less similar ruler images and test images, and also more strongly dependent on the number of observers. In order to reduce the number of observers when testing some particular image quality attribute(s), care should be taken to use ruler images varying in an attribute similar in appearance to the test images. Also noticeable are discrepancies between experienced (having experience in judging or evaluating images) and unexperienced observers, as concluded by a Welch t-test. When judging image quality, experienced observers at Axis, such as imaging engineers, camera designers etc., seem more tolerant to noise than unexperienced observers