Testing the Convergence Hypothesis for OECD Countries: A Reappraisal

This paper reviews the results of a number of empirical studies of convergence among the OECD countries and discusses some limitations of these works. Moreover, the paper tries to deal with these limitations by presenting a new and more appropriate methodology: quantile regressions. The results obtained with this specification support the view that, even among the OECD countries, there are different clusters. The parameter representing the convergence hypothesis, despite being negative in every case, is higher in value and more significant as we advance to higher quantiles. These outcomes reveal a faster convergence between the countries that belong to the upper quantiles. Moreover, 1960–1970 is highlighted as the period in which convergence was more intense

The effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade. An analysis for Spain, 1986-2000

Two main factors underlie the rebirth of interest in the study of the influence of the real exchange rate on trade, the reduction of its volatility and the current trend towards price stability. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the process of nominal convergence, required of the European member states for the fulfilment of monetary integration, on foreign trade flows. The case of Spain, which is especially interesting in this context, is studied for the period 1986 to 2000. The results of estimating the aggregate functions of the export and import of goods shows how macroeconomic stability has altered the behaviour of trade with respect to the two basic determinants - income and prices - how it has caused a significant structural change in the real exchange rate and, finally, how it has laid the explanatory bases for transactions in the twenty-first century with the single currency - the euro.