Income convergence among Brazilian states after the economic openness

This paper expands the analysis developed by Ellery Jr. (1994), who estimated the income convergence among Brazilian states from 1970 to 1990. The methodology is based on the convergence model proposed by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) and is applied to test both the beta-convergence and the sigma-convergence. For the period after 1990, and sub-periods, the effects of educational level (used as a proxy for human capital), and international trade on the increase of income states were estimated. The preliminary results show that even after the economic openness in 1990s, the income convergence process has not changed compared to the first period previously analyzed (1970-1990) among the 27 Brazilian states and this process has been still ongoing (0.79% per year) to the recent years

Ensaios em avaliação de políticas ambientais

This thesis examines three topics related to current and potential policies to reduce greenhouse gases emission (GHG) emissions in Brazil. The first chapter, entitled \"Distributional Welfare and Emission Effects of Energy Tax Policies in Brazil\" calculates carbon intensity of 128 products consumed by Brazilian households and utilizes a rich household dataset to investigate the short-run impacts of energy policies in Brazil in the 2000s. Results indicate that 11% of total additional energy emissions between 2010 and 2018 (or 6.5 MtCO2e) could have been avoided in the absence of government tax reductions on diesel, electricity and residential appliances and increments on gasoline taxes. Findings also suggest that taxes on gasoline pump prices are progressive and have a negative impact on total household energy emissions due to substitution effects. Changes in electricity prices are regressive and have large effects on household emissions. More environmentally friendly policies, such as subsidy on ethanol, are the most cost-effective to reduce emissions, despite its small effect on the emissions of the economy. Understanding who benefits from energy taxes and subsidies is key to gaining public support for a greener energy mix, as pledged by the country in its NDC. The second chapter, entitled \"Winners and Losers: The Distributional Impacts of a Carbon Tax in Brazil\" continues to investigate how economy-wide policy alternative instruments, such as a carbon tax, influence the emissions and welfare of Brazilians and the opportunities to implement such instruments in a tax reform context. Estimates suggest that it is possible to observe the first dividend in the Brazilian context, as it could reduce annual GHG emissions by up to 4.2%. However, since low-income households are less price-responsive for the majority of carbon intensive categories, they suffer a larger relative welfare loss due to the carbon tax (0.10% of their total expenditures, vis-à-vis 0.06% for richest households). They are also more likely to suffer from a larger relative indirect effect of \"food and beverages\" and \"housing-related\" consumption, which accounts for a greater budget share of these households. Significant changes in total GHG would require a higher tax rate, which would reinforce the regressiveness of the policy. These results indicate that compensation strategies, such a direct lump-sum transfer, need to be considered by the government to reduce the burden imposed on these households. Given the significant complexities in the Brazilian tax system, the generation of a second dividend effect could be observed only if the country implements carbon pricing mechanism as part of a broader structural tax reform. The third chapter, entitled \"Does Decentralized and Voluntary Commitment Reduce Deforestation? The Effects of Programa Municípios Verdes\" utilizes regression discontinuity and high-resolution spatial dataset (1,781,122 pixels covering 162,242 km2) to examine the effect of a Brazilian state-level programme implemented in 2011 on deforestation rates. The programme was implemented in one of the country\'s state that present the highest deforestation rates. Evidence suggest avoidance of roughly 8.0 MtCO2/year released to the atmosphere, and the extrapolation of estimates to the total area that could be legally deforested in Pará indicates that 41% of deforestation in the Amazon region between 2015 and 2018 could have been prevented using this voluntary initiative. Since Brazil has committed through its NDC to eliminate deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, decentralized programmers with focus on indirect benefits appear to be effective in the long-run, serving as a \"bonus\" to support those regions with higher levels of forest cover.Esta tese explora as recentes mudanças nos padrões de emissão de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no Brasil para fornecer evidências sobre possíveis trocas, nas políticas de impostos sobre a energia e na eficácia de iniciativas de combate ao desmatamento. O primeiro capítulo avalia o bem-estar e as emissões e os efeitos nos diferentes níveis de renda das famílias das políticas de imposto sobre energia implementadas recentemente no Brasil. As conclusões sugerem que os impostos sobre os preços das bombas de gasolina são progressivos e têm um impacto negativo nas emissões totais de energia das famílias devido à substituição e aos efeitos. Apesar de regressivas, as mudanças nos preços da eletricidade têm grandes efeitos sobre as emissões domésticas devido às características do suprimento de energia elétrica no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que 11% do total aditional de emissões de energia entre 2010 e 2018 (ou 6,5 MtCO2e) poderia ter sido evitado na ausência de subsídios governamentais ao diesel, eletricidade e eletrodomésticos e impostos sobre a gasolina. Políticas mais amigáveis ao meio ambiente, como subsídio ao etanol, podem ter um efeito pequeno, mas positivo, na economia e tendem a reduzir as emissões domésticas. No entanto, grandes substituições e efeitos - devido ao aumento da demanda por produtos intensivos em CO2e, como serviços de transporte e deslocamento - ao taxar a gasolina não definem ou reduzem a emissão causada por um preço mais baixo do etanol. Portanto, entender quem se beneficia dos impostos e subsídios à energia é fundamental para obter apoio público para um mix de energia mais verde, conforme prometido pelo país em seu NDC. O segundo capítulo investiga os efeitos distributivos de um imposto sobre o carbono em toda a economia. As estimativas sugerem que é possível observar o primeiro dividendo no contexto brasileiro, pois isso pode reduzir as emissões anuais de GEE em até 4,2 %. No entanto, como as famílias de baixa renda são menos responsivas aos preços para a maioria das categorias intensivas em carbono, elas sofrem uma maior perda de bem-estar relativa devido ao imposto sobre o carbono (0,10 % em relação às despesas totais, em relação a 0,06 % para as famílias mais ricas). Eles também são mais propensos a sofrer um efeito indireto relativo maior de \"alimentos e bebidas e consumo \"relacionado à habitação, o que representa uma maior parcela do orçamento dessas famílias. Mudanças significativas no total de GEE exigiriam uma taxa de imposto mais alta, o que reforçaria a regressividade da política. Esses resultados indicam que as estratégias de compensação, como uma transferência direta e total, precisam ser consideradas pelo governo para reduzir o ônus imposto a essas famílias. Dadas as complexidades significativas no sistema tributário brasileiro, a geração de um segundo efeito de dividendo só poderia ser observada se o país implementasse o mecanismo de precificação de carbono como parte de uma reforma tributária estrutural mais ampla. O terceiro artigo tira proveito de um programa estadual e voluntário brasileiro implementado em 2011 para avaliar sua eficácia na redução de uma das maiores taxas de desmatamento do país. Evidências sugerem evitar aproximadamente 8,0 MtCO2 / ano liberados na atmosfera, e a extrapolação de estimativas para a área total que pode ser desmatada legalmente no Pará indica que 41 % do desmatamento na região amazônica entre 2015 e 2018 poderia ter sido evitado usando esta iniciativa voluntária. Como o Brasil se comprometeu, através de seu NDC, a eliminar o desmatamento na Amazônia até 2030, programadores descentralizados com foco em benefícios indiretos parecem ser eficazes a longo prazo, servindo como um \"bônus para apoiar as regiões com níveis mais altos de cobertura florestal

The Increasing Participation of China in the World Soybean Market and Its Impact on Price Linkages in Futures Markets

This paper examines price linkages between soybean futures contracts traded in China, U.S, Brazil and Argentina for the period ranging from 2002 to 2011. The main findings show that U.S. prices still appear to have a dominant role to explain price changes in international markets. Results also indicate stronger linkages between prices in China and in the other three markets, especially after 2006. This result suggests the Chinese market has become more integrated with international markets in recent years, which might reflect the growing participation of China in international trade and the development of its soybean futures contract

The Increasing Participation of China in the World Soybean Market and Its Impact on Price Linkages in Futures Markets

This paper examines price linkages between soybean futures contracts traded in China, U.S, Brazil and Argentina for the period ranging from 2002 to 2011. The main findings show that U.S. prices still appear to have a dominant role to explain price changes in international markets. Results also indicate stronger linkages between prices in China and in the other three markets, especially after 2006. This result suggests the Chinese market has become more integrated with international markets in recent years, which might reflect the growing participation of China in international trade and the development of its soybean futures contract